The Study aimed at identifying the most important problems confronting the rural society in Lattakia.
The study was based on data collected by means of personal interview from a sample of (270) individuals. percentage and (x2) test were used for
data analysis.
The research results showed that percentage of illiteracy in Countryside of Lattakia was about 12.6 % . Rural society has problems in several fields , social , health , economic, education ,agricultural aspects as well, and the turn of religion men was insufficient. Other problems were found such as health service in some villages was low, minimal religious guidance , high price of consumer durable ,and low confidence in agriculture engineers.
We discussed in this work some predictive methods for time series and it is decomposing time series to its component (trend, Seasonality, cycle, random), Exponential smoothing, ARIMA, then we discussed some combining methods, then we formed a new c
ombine for predict time series which depends on combining exponential smoothing and ARIMA using weighted average with MAPE weights, and applied all methods above on three seasonal time series , first hourly temperature in Aleppo in august 2011 ,second monthly milk production peer cow in Australia from Jan 1962 to Dec 1975,third quartly electricity production in Australia from Mar 1956 to Sep 1994, and compared the results which approved that the suggested method is the best.
The modern era is witnessing a tangible development in all fields of science . As a result of this development , there is a growing need for statistical methods to solve the problems facing workers in these fields.
