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In the IEEE Investment ranking challenge 2018, participants were asked to build a model which would identify the best performing stocks based on their returns over a forward six months window. Anonymized financial predictors and semi-annual returns were provided for a group of anonymized stocks from 1996 to 2017, which were divided into 42 non-overlapping six months period. The second half of 2017 was used as an out-of-sample test of the models performance. Metrics used were Spearmans Rank Correlation Coefficient and Normalized Discounted Cumulative Gain (NDCG) of the top 20% of a models predicted rankings. The top six participants were invited to describe their approach. The solutions used were varied and were based on selecting a subset of data to train, combination of deep and shallow neural networks, different boosting algorithms, different models with different sets of features, linear support vector machine, combination of convoltional neural network (CNN) and Long short term memory (LSTM).
Being able to predict the occurrence of extreme returns is important in financial risk management. Using the distribution of recurrence intervals---the waiting time between consecutive extremes---we show that these extreme returns are predictable on
Several academics have studied the ability of hybrid models mixing univariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models and neural networks to deliver better volatility predictions than purely econometric models. Despit
We empirically investigated the effects of market factors on the information flow created from N(N-1)/2 linkage relationships among stocks. We also examined the possibility of employing the minimal spanning tree (MST) method, which is capable of redu
The extreme event statistics plays a very important role in the theory and practice of time series analysis. The reassembly of classical theoretical results is often undermined by non-stationarity and dependence between increments. Furthermore, the c
We investigate the strength and the direction of information transfer in the U.S. stock market between the composite stock price index of stock market and prices of individual stocks using the transfer entropy. Through the directionality of the infor