اشترك بالحزمة الذهبية واحصل على وصول غير محدود شمرا أكاديميا
تسجيل مستخدم جديدSemi-Parametric Drift and Diffusion Estimation for Multiscale Diffusions
134
0
0.0
(
0
)
اسأل ChatGPT حول البحث
ﻻ يوجد ملخص باللغة العربية
We consider the problem of statistical inference for the effective dynamics of multiscale diffusion processes with (at least) two widely separated characteristic time scales. More precisely, we seek to determine parameters in the effective equation describing the dynamics on the longer diffusive time scale, i.e. in a homogenization framework. We examine the case where both the drift and the diffusion coefficients in the effective dynamics are space-dependent and depend on multiple unknown parameters. It is known that classical estimators, such as Maximum Likelihood and Quadratic Variation of the Path Estimators, fail to obtain reasonable estimates for parameters in the effective dynamics when based on observations of the underlying multiscale diffusion. We propose a novel algorithm for estimating both the drift and diffusion coefficients in the effective dynamics based on a semi-parametric framework. We demonstrate by means of extensive numerical simulations of a number of selected examples that the algorithm performs well when applied to data from a multiscale diffusion. These examples also illustrate that the algorithm can be used effectively to obtain accurate and unbiased estimates.
قيم البحث
اقرأ أيضاً
In this paper we consider an ergodic diffusion process with jumps whose drift coefficient depends on an unknown parameter $theta$. We suppose that the process is discretely observed at the instants (t n i)i=0,...,n with $Delta$n = sup i=0,...,n--1 (t
n i+1 -- t n i) $rightarrow$ 0. We introduce an estimator of $theta$, based on a contrast function, which is efficient without requiring any conditions on the rate at which $Delta$n $rightarrow$ 0, and where we allow the observed process to have non summable jumps. This extends earlier results where the condition n$Delta$ 3 n $rightarrow$ 0 was needed (see [10],[24]) and where the process was supposed to have summable jumps. Moreover, in the case of a finite jump activity, we propose explicit approximations of the contrast function, such that the efficient estimation of $theta$ is feasible under the condition that n$Delta$ k n $rightarrow$ 0 where k > 0 can be arbitrarily large. This extends the results obtained by Kessler [15] in the case of continuous processes. L{e}vy-driven SDE, efficient drift estimation, high frequency data, ergodic properties, thresholding methods.
In this paper,we consider a macro approximation of the flow of a risk reserve, The process is observed at discrete time points. Because we cannot directly observe each jump time and size then we will make use of a technique for identifying the times
when jumps larger than a suitably defined threshold occurred. We estimate the jump size and survival probability of our risk process from discrete observations.
We study the problem of drift estimation for two-scale continuous time series. We set ourselves in the framework of overdamped Langevin equations, for which a single-scale surrogate homogenized equation exists. In this setting, estimating the drift c
oefficient of the homogenized equation requires pre-processing of the data, often in the form of subsampling; this is because the two-scale equation and the homogenized single-scale equation are incompatible at small scales, generating mutually singular measures on the path space. We avoid subsampling and work instead with filtered data, found by application of an appropriate kernel function, and compute maximum likelihood estimators based on the filtered process. We show that the estimators we propose are asymptotically unbiased and demonstrate numerically the advantages of our method with respect to subsampling. Finally, we show how our filtered data methodology can be combined with Bayesian techniques and provide a full uncertainty quantification of the inference procedure.
We consider the semi-parametric estimation of a scale parameter of a one-dimensional Gaussian process with known smoothness. We suggest an estimator based on quadratic variations and on the moment method. We provide asymptotic approximations of the m
ean and variance of this estimator, together with asymptotic normality results, for a large class of Gaussian processes. We allow for general mean functions and study the aggregation of several estimators based on various variation sequences. In extensive simulation studies, we show that the asymptotic results accurately depict thefinite-sample situations already for small to moderate sample sizes. We also compare various variation sequences and highlight the efficiency of the aggregation procedure.
We consider a model where the failure hazard function, conditional on a covariate $Z$ is given by $R(t,theta^0|Z)=eta_{gamma^0}(t)f_{beta^0}(Z)$, with $theta^0=(beta^0,gamma^0)^topin mathbb{R}^{m+p}$. The baseline hazard function $eta_{gamma^0}$ and
relative risk $f_{beta^0}$ belong both to parametric families. The covariate $Z$ is measured through the error model $U=Z+epsilon$ where $epsilon$ is independent from $Z$, with known density $f_epsilon$. We observe a $n$-sample $(X_i, D_i, U_i)$, $i=1,...,n$, where $X_i$ is the minimum between the failure time and the censoring time, and $D_i$ is the censoring indicator. We aim at estimating $theta^0$ in presence of the unknown density $g$. Our estimation procedure based on least squares criterion provide two estimators. The first one minimizes an estimation of the least squares criterion where $g$ is estimated by density deconvolution. Its rate depends on the smoothnesses of $f_epsilon$ and $f_beta(z)$ as a function of $z$,. We derive sufficient conditions that ensure the $sqrt{n}$-consistency. The second estimator is constructed under conditions ensuring that the least squares criterion can be directly estimated with the parametric rate. These estimators, deeply studied through examples are in particular $sqrt{n}$-consistent and asymptotically Gaussian in the Cox model and in the excess risk model, whatever is $f_epsilon$.
سجل دخول لتتمكن من نشر تعليقات
التعليقات
جاري جلب التعليقات
سجل دخول لتتمكن من متابعة معايير البحث التي قمت باختيارها
