Scaling Properties of Rainfall-Induced Landslides Predicted by a Physically Based Model

Natural landslides exhibit scaling properties revealed by power law relationships. These relationships include the frequency of the size (e.g., area, volume) of the landslides, and the rainfall conditions responsible for slope failures in a region. Reasons for the scaling behavior of landslides are poorly known. We investigate the possibility of using the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability analysis code (TRIGRS), a consolidated, physically-based, numerical model that describes the stability/instability conditions of natural slopes forced by rainfall, to determine the frequency statistics of the area of the unstable slopes and the rainfall intensity (I) - duration (D) conditions that result in landslides in a region. We apply TRIGRS in a portion of the Upper Tiber River Basin, Central Italy. The spatially distributed model predicts the stability/instability conditions of individual grid cells, given the local terrain and rainfall conditions. We run TRIGRS using multiple, synthetic rainfall histories, and we compare the modeling results with empirical evidences of the area of landslides and of the rainfall conditions that have caused landslides in the study area. Our findings revealed that TRIGRS is capable of reproducing the frequency of the size of the patches of terrain predicted as unstable by the model, which match the frequency size statistics of landslides in the study area, and the mean rainfall D, I conditions that result in unstable slopes in the study area, which match rainfall I-D thresholds for possible landslide occurrence. Our results are a step towards understanding the mechanisms that give rise to landslide scaling properties.

Improving predictive power of physically based rainfall-induced shallow landslide models: a probabilistic approach

Distributed models to forecast the spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides are based on deterministic laws. These models extend spatially the static stability models adopted in geotechnical engineering, and adopt an infinite-slope geometry to balance the resisting and the driving forces acting on the sliding mass. An infiltration model is used to determine how rainfall changes pore-water conditions, modulating the local stability/instability conditions. A problem with the operation of the existing models lays in the difficulty in obtaining accurate values for the several variables that describe the material properties of the slopes. The problem is particularly severe when the models are applied over large areas, for which sufficient information on the geotechnical and hydrological conditions of the slopes is not generally available. To help solve the problem, we propose a probabilistic Monte Carlo approach to the distributed modeling of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. For the purpose, we have modified the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis (TRIGRS) code. The new code (TRIGRS-P) adopts a probabilistic approach to compute, on a cell-by-cell basis, transient pore-pressure changes and related changes in the factor of safety due to rainfall infiltration. Infiltration is modeled using analytical solutions of partial differential equations describing one-dimensional vertical flow in isotropic, homogeneous materials. Both saturated and unsaturated soil conditions can be considered. TRIGRS-P copes with the natural variability inherent to the mechanical and hydrological properties of the slope materials by allowing values of the TRIGRS model input parameters to be sampled randomly from a given probability distribution. [..]

Color fluctuation effects in proton-nucleus collisions

Color fluctuations in hadron-hadron collisions are responsible for the presence of inelastic diffraction and lead to distinctive differences between the Gribov picture of high energy scattering and the low energy Glauber picture. We find that color fluctuations give a larger contribution to the fluctuations of the number of wounded nucleons than the fluctuations of the number of nucleons at a given impact parameter. The two contributions for the impact parameter averaged fluctuations are comparable. As a result, standard procedures for selecting peripheral (central) collisions lead to selection of configurations in the projectile which interact with smaller (larger) than average strength. We suggest that studies of pA collisions with a hard trigger may allow to observe effects of color fluctuations.

Universality of Short-Range Correlations in One- and Two-Nucleon Momentum Distributions of Nuclei

Universality of short range correlations has been investigated both in coordinate and in momentum space, by means of one-and two-body densities and momentum distributions. In this contribution we discuss one- and two-body momentum distributions across a wide range of nuclei and their common features which can be ascribed to the presence of short range correlations. Calculations for few-body nuclei, namely 3He and 4He, have been performed using exact wave functions obtained with Argonne nucleon-nucleon interactions, while the linked cluster expansion technique is used for medium-heavy nuclei. The center of mass motion of a nucleon-nucleon pair in the nucleus, embedded in the full two-body momentum distribution n_NN(krel,KCM), is shown to exhibit the universal behavior predicted by the two-nucleon correlation model, in which the nucleon-nucleon pair moves inside the nucleus as a deuteron in a mean-field. Moreover, the deuteron-like spin-isospin (ST)=(10) contribution to the pn two-body momentum distribution is obtained, and shown to exactly scale to the deuteron momentum distribution. Universality of correlations in two-body distributions is cast onto the one-body distribution n(k1), obtained by integration of the two-body n_NN(k1, k2): in particular, the high momentum part of n(k1) exhibits the same pattern for all considered nuclei, in favor of a universal character of the short range structure of the nuclear wave function. Perspectives of this work, namely the calculation of reactions involving light and complex nuclei with realistic wave functions and effects of Final State Interactions (FSI), investigated by means of distorted momentum distributions within the Glauber multiple scattering approach, are eventually discussed.

Initial state anisotropies in ultrarelativistic heavy-ion collisions from the Monte Carlo Glauber model

In hydrodynamicalmodeling of heavy-ion collisions the initial state spatial anisotropies translate into momentum anisotropies of the final state particle distributions. Thus, understanding the origin of the initial anisotropies and quantifying their uncertainties is important for the extraction of specific QCD matter properties, such as viscosity, from the experimental data. In this work we study the wounded nucleon approach in the Monte Carlo Glauber model framework, focusing especially on the uncertainties which arise from the modeling of the nucleon-nucleon interactions between the colliding nucleon pairs and nucleon-nucleon correlations inside the colliding nuclei. We compare the black disk model and a probabilistic profile function approach for the inelastic nucleon-nucleon interactions, and study the effects of initial state correlations using state-of-theart modeling of these.

Initial state anisotropies and their uncertainties in ultrarelativistic heavy-ion collisions from the Monte Carlo Glauber model

In hydrodynamical modeling of heavy-ion collisions, the initial-state spatial anisotropies are translated into momentum anisotropies of the final-state particle distributions. Thus, understanding the origin of the initial-state anisotropies and their uncertainties is important before extracting specific QCD matter properties, such as viscosity, from the experimental data. In this work we review the wounded nucleon approach based on the Monte Carlo Glauber model, charting in particular the uncertainties arising from modeling of the nucleon-nucleon interactions between the colliding nucleon pairs and nucleon-nucleon correlations inside the colliding nuclei. We discuss the differences between the black disk model and a probabilistic profile function approach for the inelastic nucleon-nucleon interactions, and investigate the influence of initial-state correlations using state-of-the-art modeling of these.

Beam Fragmentation in Heavy Ion Collisions with Realistically Correlated Nuclear Configurations

We develop a new approach to production of the spectator nucleons in the heavy ion collisions. The energy transfer to the spectator system is calculated using the Monte Carlo based on the updated version of our generator of configurations in colliding nuclei which includes a realistic account of short-range correlations in nuclei. The transferred energy distributions are calculated within the framework of the Glauber multiple scattering theory, taking into account all the individual inelastic and elastic collisions using an independent realistic calculation of the potential energy contribution of each of the nucleon-nucleon pairs to the total potential. We show that the dominant mechanism of the energy transfer is tearing apart pairs of nucleons with the major contribution coming from the short-range correlations. We calculate the momentum distribution of the emitted nucleons which is strongly affected by short range correlations including its dependence on the azimuthal angle. In particular, we predict a strong angular asymmetry along the direction of the impact parameter b, providing a unique opportunity to determine the direction of b. Also, we predict a strong dependence of the shape of the nucleon momentum distribution on the centrality of the nucleus-nucleus collision.