Cloud networks are difficult to monitor because they grow rapidly and the budgets for monitoring them are limited. We propose a framework for estimating network metrics, such as latency and packet loss, with guarantees on estimation errors for a fixe
d monitoring budget. Our proposed algorithms produce a distribution of probes across network paths, which we then monitor; and are based on A- and E-optimal experimental designs in statistics. Unfortunately, these designs are too computationally costly to use at production scale. We propose their scalable and near-optimal approximations based on the Frank-Wolfe algorithm. We validate our approaches in simulation on real network topologies, and also using a production probing system in a real cloud network. We show major gains in reducing the probing budget compared to both production and academic baselines, while maintaining low estimation errors, even with very low probing budgets.
This paper studies regret minimization in multi-armed bandits, a classical online learning problem. To develop more statistically-efficient algorithms, we propose to use the assumption of a random-effect model. In this model, the mean rewards of arms
are drawn independently from an unknown distribution, whose parameters we estimate. We provide an estimator of the arm means in this model and also analyze its uncertainty. Based on these results, we design a UCB algorithm, which we call ReUCB. We analyze ReUCB and prove a Bayes regret bound on its $n$-round regret, which matches an existing lower bound. Our experiments show that ReUCB can outperform Thompson sampling in various scenarios, without assuming that the prior distribution of arm means is known.
Efficient exploration in bandits is a fundamental online learning problem. We propose a variant of Thompson sampling that learns to explore better as it interacts with bandit instances drawn from an unknown prior. The algorithm meta-learns the prior
and thus we call it MetaTS. We propose several efficient implementations of MetaTS and analyze it in Gaussian bandits. Our analysis shows the benefit of meta-learning and is of a broader interest, because we derive a novel prior-dependent Bayes regret bound for Thompson sampling. Our theory is complemented by empirical evaluation, which shows that MetaTS quickly adapts to the unknown prior.
Most bandit policies are designed to either minimize regret in any problem instance, making very few assumptions about the underlying environment, or in a Bayesian sense, assuming a prior distribution over environment parameters. The former are often
too conservative in practical settings, while the latter require assumptions that are hard to verify in practice. We study bandit problems that fall between these two extremes, where the learning agent has access to sampled bandit instances from an unknown prior distribution $mathcal{P}$ and aims to achieve high reward on average over the bandit instances drawn from $mathcal{P}$. This setting is of a particular importance because it lays foundations for meta-learning of bandit policies and reflects more realistic assumptions in many practical domains. We propose the use of parameterized bandit policies that are differentiable and can be optimized using policy gradients. This provides a broadly applicable framework that is easy to implement. We derive reward gradients that reflect the structure of bandit problems and policies, for both non-contextual and contextual settings, and propose a number of interesting policies that are both differentiable and have low regret. Our algorithmic and theoretical contributions are supported by extensive experiments that show the importance of baseline subtraction, learned biases, and the practicality of our approach on a range problems.
Exploration policies in Bayesian bandits maximize the average reward over problem instances drawn from some distribution $mathcal{P}$. In this work, we learn such policies for an unknown distribution $mathcal{P}$ using samples from $mathcal{P}$. Our
approach is a form of meta-learning and exploits properties of $mathcal{P}$ without making strong assumptions about its form. To do this, we parameterize our policies in a differentiable way and optimize them by policy gradients, an approach that is general and easy to implement. We derive effective gradient estimators and introduce novel variance reduction techniques. We also analyze and experiment with various bandit policy classes, including neural networks and a novel softmax policy. The latter has regret guarantees and is a natural starting point for our optimization. Our experiments show the versatility of our approach. We also observe that neural network policies can learn implicit biases expressed only through the sampled instances.
We study two randomized algorithms for generalized linear bandits, GLM-TSL and GLM-FPL. GLM-TSL samples a generalized linear model (GLM) from the Laplace approximation to the posterior distribution. GLM-FPL fits a GLM to a randomly perturbed history
of past rewards. We prove $tilde{O}(d sqrt{n log K})$ bounds on the $n$-round regret of GLM-TSL and GLM-FPL, where $d$ is the number of features and $K$ is the number of arms. The regret bound of GLM-TSL improves upon prior work and the regret bound of GLM-FPL is the first of its kind. We apply both GLM-TSL and GLM-FPL to logistic and neural network bandits, and show that they perform well empirically. In more complex models, GLM-FPL is significantly faster. Our results showcase the role of randomization, beyond sampling from the posterior, in exploration.
Most bandit algorithm designs are purely theoretical. Therefore, they have strong regret guarantees, but also are often too conservative in practice. In this work, we pioneer the idea of algorithm design by minimizing the empirical Bayes regret, the
average regret over problem instances sampled from a known distribution. We focus on a tractable instance of this problem, the confidence interval and posterior width tuning, and propose an efficient algorithm for solving it. The tuning algorithm is analyzed and evaluated in multi-armed, linear, and generalized linear bandits. We report several-fold reductions in Bayes regret for state-of-the-art bandit algorithms, simply by optimizing over a small sample from a distribution.
We propose a new online algorithm for minimizing the cumulative regret in stochastic linear bandits. The key idea is to build a perturbed history, which mixes the history of observed rewards with a pseudo-history of randomly generated i.i.d. pseudo-r
ewards. Our algorithm, perturbed-history exploration in a linear bandit (LinPHE), estimates a linear model from its perturbed history and pulls the arm with the highest value under that model. We prove a $tilde{O}(d sqrt{n})$ gap-free bound on the expected $n$-round regret of LinPHE, where $d$ is the number of features. Our analysis relies on novel concentration and anti-concentration bounds on the weighted sum of Bernoulli random variables. To show the generality of our design, we extend LinPHE to a logistic reward model. We evaluate both algorithms empirically and show that they are practical.
We propose an online algorithm for cumulative regret minimization in a stochastic multi-armed bandit. The algorithm adds $O(t)$ i.i.d. pseudo-rewards to its history in round $t$ and then pulls the arm with the highest average reward in its perturbed
history. Therefore, we call it perturbed-history exploration (PHE). The pseudo-rewards are carefully designed to offset potentially underestimated mean rewards of arms with a high probability. We derive near-optimal gap-dependent and gap-free bounds on the $n$-round regret of PHE. The key step in our analysis is a novel argument that shows that randomized Bernoulli rewards lead to optimism. Finally, we empirically evaluate PHE and show that it is competitive with state-of-the-art baselines.
We propose a bandit algorithm that explores by randomizing its history of rewards. Specifically, it pulls the arm with the highest mean reward in a non-parametric bootstrap sample of its history with pseudo rewards. We design the pseudo rewards such
that the bootstrap mean is optimistic with a sufficiently high probability. We call our algorithm Giro, which stands for garbage in, reward out. We analyze Giro in a Bernoulli bandit and derive a $O(K Delta^{-1} log n)$ bound on its $n$-round regret, where $Delta$ is the difference in the expected rewards of the optimal and the best suboptimal arms, and $K$ is the number of arms. The main advantage of our exploration design is that it easily generalizes to structured problems. To show this, we propose contextual Giro with an arbitrary reward generalization model. We evaluate Giro and its contextual variant on multiple synthetic and real-world problems, and observe that it performs well.
