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Testing the Random Walk Model on the Stock Returns of Firms Listed in the Damascus Securities Exchange

اختبار نموذج السير العشوائي على عوائد أسهم الشركات المدرجة في سوق دمشق للأوراق المالية

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 Publication date 2016
and research's language is العربية
 Created by Shamra Editor




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This study aimed to examine the weak form efficiency of the Damascus Securities Exchange (DSE). The study used the monthly returns, adjusted for thin trading, of firms listed in the Damascus Securities Exchange from 2009 until 2014 and applied various tests to examine the random walk behavior in returns: the unit root test, the autocorrelation test, the runs test and the GARCH model. To take the impact of the Syrian crisis into account when judging the efficiency of the market, the study period was divided into three periods, the pre-crisis period, the crisis period and the whole period. The results revealed inability to reject the weak form efficient market hypothesis for more than half of the studied firms. Also it showed that the Syrian crisis, in general, has negatively affected the efficiency of most of the studied firms.


Artificial intelligence review:
Research summary
تهدف هذه الدراسة إلى اختبار كفاءة سوق دمشق للأوراق المالية من الصيغة الضعيفة باستخدام العوائد الشهرية المعدلة لضعف التداول للشركات المدرجة في سوق دمشق للأوراق المالية من 2009 وحتى 2014. تم تقسيم فترة الدراسة إلى ثلاث فترات: فترة ما قبل الأزمة، فترة الأزمة والفترة الكلية، وذلك لأخذ أثر الأزمة السورية بعين الاعتبار. استخدمت الدراسة مجموعة من الاختبارات الإحصائية مثل اختبار جذر الوحدة، اختبار الارتباط الذاتي، اختبار التكرارات ونموذج غارج. أظهرت النتائج عدم القدرة على رفض فرضية كفاءة السوق من الصيغة الضعيفة لأكثر من نصف الشركات المدروسة، كما بينت أن الأزمة السورية أثرت سلبًا على كفاءة أسهم معظم الشركات المدروسة. تم جمع البيانات من الموقع الإلكتروني لسوق دمشق للأوراق المالية واعتمدت الدراسة على أسعار الإغلاق الشهرية للأسهم. تشير النتائج إلى أن عدد الشركات الكفوءة في فترة ما قبل الأزمة كان أكبر من عددها في فترة ما بعد الأزمة، مما يدل على أن الأزمة السورية كان لها تأثير سلبي على كفاءة السوق.
Critical review
دراسة نقدية: تعتبر هذه الدراسة مهمة لفهم كفاءة سوق دمشق للأوراق المالية، إلا أن هناك بعض النقاط التي يمكن تحسينها. أولاً، الاعتماد على العوائد الشهرية بدلاً من اليومية قد يؤدي إلى تجاهل بعض التفاصيل الدقيقة التي يمكن أن تظهر في البيانات اليومية. ثانيًا، الدراسة تركز على الشركات الأكثر تداولًا فقط، مما قد يسبب تحيزًا في النتائج. كان من الأفضل تضمين جميع الشركات المدرجة للحصول على صورة أكثر شمولية. ثالثًا، لم تأخذ الدراسة في الاعتبار العوامل الأخرى التي قد تؤثر على كفاءة السوق مثل السياسات الاقتصادية والتغيرات التنظيمية. أخيرًا، كان من الممكن تقديم توصيات أكثر تحديدًا لتحسين كفاءة السوق بناءً على النتائج المستخلصة.
Questions related to the research
  1. ما هو الهدف الرئيسي من الدراسة؟

    الهدف الرئيسي من الدراسة هو التحقق من كفاءة سوق دمشق للأوراق المالية من الصيغة الضعيفة باستخدام العوائد الشهرية المعدلة لضعف التداول للشركات المدرجة في السوق من 2009 وحتى 2014.

  2. ما هي الفترات الزمنية التي تم تقسيم الدراسة إليها؟

    تم تقسيم فترة الدراسة إلى ثلاث فترات: فترة ما قبل الأزمة، فترة الأزمة والفترة الكلية، وذلك لأخذ أثر الأزمة السورية بعين الاعتبار.

  3. ما هي الاختبارات الإحصائية التي استخدمتها الدراسة؟

    استخدمت الدراسة مجموعة من الاختبارات الإحصائية مثل اختبار جذر الوحدة، اختبار الارتباط الذاتي، اختبار التكرارات ونموذج غارج.

  4. ما هي النتائج الرئيسية التي توصلت إليها الدراسة؟

    أظهرت النتائج عدم القدرة على رفض فرضية كفاءة السوق من الصيغة الضعيفة لأكثر من نصف الشركات المدروسة، كما بينت أن الأزمة السورية أثرت سلبًا على كفاءة أسهم معظم الشركات المدروسة.


References used
ABBAS, G. 2014 Testing Random Walk Behavior in the Damascus Securities Exchange International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Vol. 4, Issue 4, 12
ABRAHAM, A.; FAZAL J. and SULAIMAN A. 2002 Testing the Random Walk Behavior and Efficiency of the Gulf Stock Markets the Financial Review, Vol. 37, 469- 480
Al-AHMAD, Z. 2012 Testing the Weak Form Efficiency of the Damascus Securities Exchange International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, Euro Journals Publishing, ISSN 1450-2887, Issue 85, 12
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