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Register a new userNetworks of Necessity: Simulating Strategies for COVID-19 Mitigation among Disabled People and Their Caregivers
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Added by
Michael Lindstrom
Publication date
2020
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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A major strategy to prevent the spread of COVID-19 is through the limiting of in-person contacts. However, for the many disabled people who live in the community and require caregivers to assist them with activities of daily living, limiting contacts is impractical or impossible. We seek to determine which interventions can prevent infections among disabled people and their caregivers. To accomplish this, we simulate COVID-19 transmission with a compartmental model on a network. The networks incorporate heterogeneity in the risks of different types of interactions, time-dependent lockdown and reopening measures, and interaction distributions for four different groups (caregivers, disabled people, essential workers, and the general population). Among these groups, we find the probability of becoming infected is highest for caregivers and second highest for disabled people. Our analysis of the network structure illustrates that caregivers have the largest modal eigenvector centrality among the four groups. We find that two interventions -- contact-limiting by all groups and mask-wearing by disabled people and caregivers -- particularly reduce cases among disabled people and caregivers. We also test which group most effectively spreads COVID-19 by seeding infections in a subset of each group and then comparing the total number of infections as the disease spreads. We find that caregivers are the most effective spreaders of COVID-19. We then test where limited vaccine doses could be used most effectively and we find that vaccinating caregivers better protects disabled people than vaccinating the general population, essential workers, or the disabled population itself. Our results highlight the potential effectiveness of mask-wearing, contact-limiting throughout society, and strategic vaccination for limiting the exposure of disabled people and their caregivers to COVID-19.
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An outbreak of respiratory disease caused by a novel coronavirus is ongoing from December 2019. As of July 22, 2020, it has caused an epidemic outbreak with more than 15 million confirmed infections and above 6 hundred thousand reported deaths worldwide. During this period of an epidemic when human-to-human transmission is established and reported cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are rising worldwide, investigation of control strategies and forecasting are necessary for health care planning. In this study, we propose and analyze a compartmental epidemic model of COVID-19 to predict and control the outbreak. The basic reproduction number and control reproduction number are calculated analytically. A detailed stability analysis of the model is performed to observe the dynamics of the system. We calibrated the proposed model to fit daily data from the United Kingdom (UK) where the situation is still alarming. Our findings suggest that independent self-sustaining human-to-human spread ($R_0>1$, $R_c>1$) is already present. Short-term predictions show that the decreasing trend of new COVID-19 cases is well captured by the model. Further, we found that effective management of quarantined individuals is more effective than management of isolated individuals to reduce the disease burden. Thus, if limited resources are available, then investing on the quarantined individuals will be more fruitful in terms of reduction of cases.
Automated driving system - dedicated vehicles (ADS-DVs), specially designed for people with various disabilities, can be beneficial to improve their mobility. However, research related to autonomous vehicles (AVs) for people with cognitive disabilities, especially Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is limited. Thus, in this study, we focused on the challenge that we framed: How might we design an ADS-DV that benefits people with ASD and their caregivers?. In order to address the design challenge, we followed the human-centered design process. First, we conducted user research with caregivers of people with ASD. Second, we identified their user needs, including safety, monitoring and updates, individual preferences, comfort, trust, and reliability. Third, we generated a large number of ideas with brainstorming and affinity diagrams, based on which we proposed an ADS-DV prototype with a mobile application and an interior design. Fourth, we tested both the low-fidelity and high-fidelity prototypes to fix the possible issues. Our preliminary results showed that such an ASD-DV would potentially improve the mobility of those with ASD without worries.
This note describes a simple score to indicate the effectiveness of mitigation against infections of COVID-19 as observed by new case counts. The score includes normalization, making comparisons across jurisdictions possible. The smoothing employed provides robustness in the face of reporting vagaries while retaining salient features of evolution, enabling a clearer picture for decision makers and the public.
As COVID-19 transmissions spread worldwide, governments have announced and enforced travel restrictions to prevent further infections. Such restrictions have a direct effect on the volume of international flights among these countries, resulting in extensive social and economic costs. To better understand the situation in a quantitative manner, we used the Opensky network data to clarify flight patterns and flight densities around the world and observe relationships between flight numbers with new infections, and with the economy (unemployment rate) in Barcelona. We found that the number of daily flights gradually decreased and suddenly dropped 64% during the second half of March in 2020 after the US and Europe enacted travel restrictions. We also observed a 51% decrease in the global flight network density decreased during this period. Regarding new COVID-19 cases, the world had an unexpected surge regardless of travel restrictions. Finally, the layoffs for temporary workers in the tourism and airplane business increased by 4.3 fold in the weeks following Spains decision to close its borders.
In the study of infectious diseases on networks, researchers calculate epidemic thresholds to help forecast whether a disease will eventually infect a large fraction of a population. Because network structure typically changes in time, which fundamentally influences the dynamics of spreading processes on them and in turn affects epidemic thresholds for disease propagation, it is important to examine epidemic thresholds in temporal networks. Most existing studies of epidemic thresholds in temporal networks have focused on models in discrete time, but most real-world networked systems evolve continuously in time. In our work, we encode the continuous time-dependence of networks into the evaluation of the epidemic threshold of a susceptible--infected--susceptible (SIS) process by studying an SIS model on tie-decay networks. We derive the epidemic-threshold condition of this model, and we perform numerical experiments to verify it. We also examine how different factors---the decay coefficients of the tie strengths in a network, the frequency of interactions between nodes, and the sparsity of the underlying social network in which interactions occur---lead to decreases or increases of the critical values of the threshold and hence contribute to facilitating or impeding the spread of a disease. We thereby demonstrate how the features of tie-decay networks alter the outcome of disease spread.
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