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Register a new userShort-term predictions and prevention strategies for COVID-19: A model based study
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An outbreak of respiratory disease caused by a novel coronavirus is ongoing from December 2019. As of July 22, 2020, it has caused an epidemic outbreak with more than 15 million confirmed infections and above 6 hundred thousand reported deaths worldwide. During this period of an epidemic when human-to-human transmission is established and reported cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are rising worldwide, investigation of control strategies and forecasting are necessary for health care planning. In this study, we propose and analyze a compartmental epidemic model of COVID-19 to predict and control the outbreak. The basic reproduction number and control reproduction number are calculated analytically. A detailed stability analysis of the model is performed to observe the dynamics of the system. We calibrated the proposed model to fit daily data from the United Kingdom (UK) where the situation is still alarming. Our findings suggest that independent self-sustaining human-to-human spread ($R_0>1$, $R_c>1$) is already present. Short-term predictions show that the decreasing trend of new COVID-19 cases is well captured by the model. Further, we found that effective management of quarantined individuals is more effective than management of isolated individuals to reduce the disease burden. Thus, if limited resources are available, then investing on the quarantined individuals will be more fruitful in terms of reduction of cases.
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Since December 2019, A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has been breaking out in China, which can cause respiratory diseases and severe pneumonia. Mathematical and empirical models relying on the epidemic situation scale for forecasting disease outbreaks have received increasing attention. Given its successful application in the evaluation of infectious diseases scale, we propose a Susceptible-Undiagnosed-Infected-Removed (SUIR) model to offer the effective prediction, prevention, and control of infectious diseases. Our model is a modified susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model that injects undiagnosed state and offers pre-training effective reproduction number. Our SUIR model is more precise than the traditional SIR model. Moreover, we combine domain knowledge of the epidemic to estimate effective reproduction number, which addresses the initial susceptible population of the infectious disease model approach to the ground truth. These findings have implications for the forecasting of epidemic trends in COVID-19 as these could help the growth of estimating epidemic situation.
Understanding dynamics of an outbreak like that of COVID-19 is important in designing effective control measures. This study aims to develop an agent based model that compares changes in infection progression by manipulating different parameters in a synthetic population. Model input includes population characteristics like age, sex, working status etc. of each individual and other factors influencing disease dynamics. Depending on number of epicentres of infection, location of primary cases, sensitivity, proportion of asymptomatic and frequency or duration of lockdown, our simulator tracks every individual and hence infection progression through community over time. In a closed community of 10000 people, it is seen that without any lockdown, number of cases peak around 6th week and wanes off around 15th week. If primary case is located inside dense population cluster like slums, cases peak early and wane off slowly. With introduction of lockdown, cases peak at slower rate. If sensitivity of identifying infection decreases, cases and deaths increase. Number of cases declines with increase in proportion of asymptomatic cases. The model is robust and provides reproducible estimates with realistic parameter values. It also guides in identifying measures to control outbreak in a community. It is flexible in accommodating different parameters like infectivity period, yield of testing, socio-economic strata, daily travel, awareness level, population density, social distancing, lockdown etc. and can be tailored to study other infections with similar transmission pattern.
We present a new mathematical model to explicitly capture the effects that the three restriction measures: the lockdown date and duration, social distancing and masks, and, schools and border closing, have in controlling the spread of COVID-19 infections $i(r, t)$. Before restrictions were introduced, the random spread of infections as described by the SEIR model grew exponentially. The addition of control measures introduces a mixing of order and disorder in the systems evolution which fall under a different mathematical class of models that can eventually lead to critical phenomena. A generic analytical solution is hard to obtain. We use machine learning to solve the new equations for $i(r,t)$, the infections $i$ in any region $r$ at time $t$ and derive predictions for the spread of infections over time as a function of the strength of the specific measure taken and their duration. The machine is trained in all of the COVID-19 published data for each region, county, state, and country in the world. It utilizes optimization to learn the best-fit values of the models parameters from past data in each region in the world, and it updates the predicted infections curves for any future restrictions that may be added or relaxed anywhere. We hope this interdisciplinary effort, a new mathematical model that predicts the impact of each measure in slowing down infection spread combined with the solving power of machine learning, is a useful tool in the fight against the current pandemic and potentially future ones.
In this study, we present a new epidemiological model, with contamination from confirmed and unreported. We also compute equilibria and study their stability without intervention strategies. Optimal control theory has proven to be a successful tool in understanding ways to curtail the spread of infectious diseases by devising the optimal disease intervention strategies. We investigate the impact of distancing, case finding, and case holding controls while at the same time, we minimize the number of infected and dead individuals. The method consists of minimizing the cost functional related to infectious, death, and controls through some strategies to reduce the spread of the COVID19 epidemic.
In late 2019, a novel coronavirus, the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak was identified in Wuhan, China and later spread to every corner of the globe. Whilst the number of infection-induced deaths in Ghana, West Africa are minimal when compared with the rest of the world, the impact on the local health service is still significant. Compartmental models are a useful framework for investigating transmission of diseases in societies. To understand how the infection will spread and how to limit the outbreak. We have developed a modified SEIR compartmental model with nine compartments (CoVCom9) to describe the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Ghana. We have carried out a detailed mathematical analysis of the CoVCom9, including the derivation of the basic reproduction number, $mathcal{R}_{0}$. In particular, we have shown that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when $mathcal{R}_{0}<1$ via a candidate Lyapunov function. Using the SARS-CoV-2 reported data for confirmed-positive cases and deaths from March 13 to August 10, 2020, we have parametrised the CoVCom9 model. The results of this fit show good agreement with data. We used Latin hypercube sampling-rank correlation coefficient (LHS-PRCC) to investigate the uncertainty and sensitivity of $mathcal{R}_{0}$ since the results derived are significant in controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2. We estimate that over this five month period, the basic reproduction number is given by $mathcal{R}_{0} = 3.110$, with the 95% confidence interval being $2.042 leq mathcal{R}_0 leq 3.240$, and the mean value being $mathcal{R}_{0}=2.623$. Of the 32 parameters in the model, we find that just six have a significant influence on $mathcal{R}_{0}$, these include the rate of testing, where an increasing testing rate contributes to the reduction of $mathcal{R}_{0}$.
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