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Register a new userThe Galactic Nova Rate Revisited
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Authors
A. W. Shafter
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Despite its fundamental importance, a reliable estimate of the Galactic nova rate has remained elusive. Here, the overall Galactic nova rate is estimated by extrapolating the observed rate for novae reaching $mleq2$ to include the entire Galaxy using a two component disk plus bulge model for the distribution of stars in the Milky Way. The present analysis improves on previous work by considering important corrections for incompleteness in the observed rate of bright novae and by employing a Monte Carlo analysis to better estimate the uncertainty in the derived nova rates. Several models are considered to account for differences in the assumed properties of bulge and disk nova populations and in the absolute magnitude distribution. The simplest models, which assume uniform properties between bulge and disk novae, predict Galactic nova rates of $sim$50 to in excess of 100 per year, depending on the assumed incompleteness at bright magnitudes. Models where the disk novae are assumed to be more luminous than bulge novae are explored, and predict nova rates up to 30% lower, in the range of $sim$35 to $sim$75 per year. An average of the most plausible models yields a rate of $50_{-23}^{+31}$ yr$^{-1}$, which is arguably the best estimate currently available for the nova rate in the Galaxy. Virtually all models produce rates that represent significant increases over recent estimates, and bring the Galactic nova rate into better agreement with that expected based on comparison with the latest results from extragalactic surveys.
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Of the 350 or more known Galactic classical novae, only a handful of them, the recurrent novae, have been observed in outburst more than once. At least eight of these recurrents are known to harbour evolved secondary stars, rather than the main sequence secondaries typical in classical novae. Here we present a selection of the work and rationale that led to the proposal of a new nova classification scheme based not on the outburst properties but on the nature of the quiescent system. Also outlined are the results of a photometric survey of a sample of quiescent Galactic novae, showing that the evolutionary state of the secondary can be easily determined and leading to a number of predictions. We discuss the implications of these results, including their relevance to extragalactic work and the proposed link to type Ia supernovae. We also present a summary of the work using the SMEI instrument to produce exquisite nova light-curves and confirmation of the pre-maximum halt.
M dwarfs are known to flare on timescales from minutes to hours, with flux increases of several magnitudes in the blue/near-UV. These frequent, powerful events, which are caused by magnetic reconnection, will have a strong observational signature in large, time-domain surveys. The radiation and particle fluxes from flares may also exert a significant influence on the atmospheres of orbiting planets, and affect their habitability. We present a statistical model of flaring M dwarfs in the Galaxy that allows us to predict the observed flare rate along a given line of sight for a particular survey depth and cadence. The parameters that enter the model are the Galactic structure, the distribution of magnetically active and inactive M dwarfs, and the flare frequency distribution (FFD) of both populations. The FFD is a function of spectral type, activity, and Galactic height. Although inactive M dwarfs make up the majority of stars in a magnitude-limited survey, the FFD of inactive stars is very poorly constrained. We have organized a flare monitoring campaign comprising hundreds of hours of new observations from both the ground and space to better constrain flare rates. Incorporating the new observations into our model provides more accurate predictions of stellar variability caused by flares on M dwarfs. We pay particular attention to the likelihood of flares appearing as optical transients (i.e., host star not seen in quiescent data).
There is a longstanding discrepancy between the observed Galactic classical nova rate of $sim 10$ yr$^{-1}$ and the predicted rate from Galactic models of $sim 30$--50 yr$^{-1}$. One explanation for this discrepancy is that many novae are hidden by interstellar extinction, but the degree to which dust can obscure novae is poorly constrained. We use newly available all-sky three-dimensional dust maps to compare the brightness and spatial distribution of known novae to that predicted from relatively simple models in which novae trace Galactic stellar mass. We find that only half ($sim 48$%) of novae are expected to be easily detectable ($g lesssim 15$) with current all-sky optical surveys such as the All-Sky Automated Survey for Supernovae (ASAS-SN). This fraction is much lower than previously estimated, showing that dust does substantially affect nova detection in the optical. By comparing complementary survey results from ASAS-SN, OGLE-IV, and the Palomar Gattini IR-survey in the context of our modeling, we find a tentative Galactic nova rate of $sim 40$ yr$^{-1}$, though this could decrease to as low as $sim 30$ yr$^{-1}$ depending on the assumed distribution of novae within the Galaxy. These preliminary estimates will be improved in future work through more sophisticated modeling of nova detection in ASAS-SN and other surveys.
Recently, Shara and collaborators searched for novae in M87 in a series of images originally acquired in HST program #10543 (PI: Baltz), finding a surprisingly high nova rate of $363_{-45}^{+33}$ per year. In an attempt to reconcile this rate with previous ground-based estimates, we have undertaken an independent analysis of the HST data. Our results are in broad agreement with those of Shara et al., although we argue that the global nova rate in M87 remains uncertain, both due to the difficulty in identifying bona fide novae from incomplete lightcurves, and in extrapolating observations near the center of M87 to the entire galaxy. We conclude that nova rates as low as ~200 per year remain plausible.
A multi-epoch H$alpha$ survey of the early-type spiral galaxy M94 (NGC 4736) has been completed as part of a program to establish the galaxys nova rate. A total of four nova candidates were discovered in seven epochs of observation during the period from 2005 to 2007. After making corrections for temporal coverage and spatial completeness, a global nova rate of 5.0$^{+1.8}_{-1.4}$ yr$^{-1}$ was determined. This rate corresponds to a specific-luminosity nova rate of 1.4 $pm$ 0.5 novae per year per 10$^{10} L_{odot,K}$ when the $K$ luminosity is determined from the $B-K$ color, or 1.5 $pm$ 0.4 novae per year per 10$^{10} L_{odot,K}$ when the $K$ luminosity is derived from the Two Micron All Sky Survey. These values are slightly lower than that of other galaxies with measured nova rates, which typically lie in the range of $2-3$ novae per year per 10$^{10} L_{odot}$ in the $K$ band.
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