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Register a new userThe Galactic M Dwarf Flare Rate
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Authors
Eric J. Hilton
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M dwarfs are known to flare on timescales from minutes to hours, with flux increases of several magnitudes in the blue/near-UV. These frequent, powerful events, which are caused by magnetic reconnection, will have a strong observational signature in large, time-domain surveys. The radiation and particle fluxes from flares may also exert a significant influence on the atmospheres of orbiting planets, and affect their habitability. We present a statistical model of flaring M dwarfs in the Galaxy that allows us to predict the observed flare rate along a given line of sight for a particular survey depth and cadence. The parameters that enter the model are the Galactic structure, the distribution of magnetically active and inactive M dwarfs, and the flare frequency distribution (FFD) of both populations. The FFD is a function of spectral type, activity, and Galactic height. Although inactive M dwarfs make up the majority of stars in a magnitude-limited survey, the FFD of inactive stars is very poorly constrained. We have organized a flare monitoring campaign comprising hundreds of hours of new observations from both the ground and space to better constrain flare rates. Incorporating the new observations into our model provides more accurate predictions of stellar variability caused by flares on M dwarfs. We pay particular attention to the likelihood of flares appearing as optical transients (i.e., host star not seen in quiescent data).
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As part of the Mega MUSCLES Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Treasury program, we obtained time-series ultraviolet spectroscopy of the M2.5V star, GJ~674. During the FUV monitoring observations, the target exhibited several small flares and one large flare (E_FUV = 10^{30.75} ergs) that persisted over the entirety of a HST orbit and had an equivalent duration >30,000 sec, comparable to the highest relative amplitude event previously recorded in the FUV. The flare spectrum exhibited enhanced line emission from chromospheric, transition region, and coronal transitions and a blue FUV continuum with an unprecedented color temperature of T_c ~ 40,000+/-10,000 K. In this paper, we compare the flare FUV continuum emission with parameterizations of radiative hydrodynamic model atmospheres of M star flares. We find that the observed flare continuum can be reproduced using flare models but only with the ad hoc addition of hot, dense emitting component. This observation demonstrates that flares with hot FUV continuum temperatures and significant EUV/FUV energy deposition will continue to be of importance to exoplanet atmospheric chemistry and heating even as the host M dwarfs age beyond their most active evolutionary phases.
We present a large dataset of high cadence dMe flare light curves obtained with custom continuum filters on the triple-beam, high-speed camera system ULTRACAM. The measurements provide constraints for models of the NUV and optical continuum spectral evolution on timescales of ~1 second. We provide a robust interpretation of the flare emission in the ULTRACAM filters using simultaneously-obtained low-resolution spectra during two moderate-sized flares in the dM4.5e star YZ CMi. By avoiding the spectral complexity within the broadband Johnson filters, the ULTRACAM filters are shown to characterize bona-fide continuum emission in the NUV, blue, and red wavelength regimes. The NUV/blue flux ratio in flares is equivalent to a Balmer jump ratio, and the blue/red flux ratio provides an estimate for the color temperature of the optical continuum emission. We present a new color-color relationship for these continuum flux ratios at the peaks of the flares. Using the RADYN and RH codes, we interpret the ULTRACAM filter emission using the dominant emission processes from a radiative-hydrodynamic flare model with a high nonthermal electron beam flux, which explains a hot, T~10,000 K, color temperature at blue-to-red optical wavelengths and a small Balmer jump ratio as are observed in moderate-sized and large flares alike. We also discuss the high time-resolution, high signal-to-noise continuum color variations observed in YZ CMi during a giant flare, which increased the NUV flux from this star by over a factor of 100.
We present a flare rate analysis of 50,130 M dwarf light curves in SDSS Stripe 82. We identified 271 flares using a customized variability index to search ~2.5 million photometric observations for flux increases in the u- and g-bands. Every image of a flaring observation was examined by eye and with a PSF-matching and image subtraction tool to guard against false positives. Flaring is found to be strongly correlated with the appearance of H-alpha in emission in the quiet spectrum. Of the 99 flare stars that have spectra, we classify 8 as relatively inactive. The flaring fraction is found to increase strongly in stars with redder colors during quiescence, which can be attributed to the increasing flare visibility and increasing active fraction for redder stars. The flaring fraction is strongly correlated with |Z| distance such that most stars that flare are within 300 pc of the Galactic plane. We derive flare u-band luminosities and find that the most luminous flares occur on the earlier-type M dwarfs. Our best estimate of the lower limit on the flaring rate (averaged over Stripe 82) for flares with Delta u ge 0.7 magnitudes on stars with u < 22 is 1.3 flares hour^-1 square degree^-1 but can vary significantly with the line-of-sight.
We report and characterize a white-light superflare on a previously undiscovered M dwarf detected by the ASAS-SN survey. Employing various color-magnitude and color-spectral type relationships, we estimate several stellar parameters, including the quiescent V-band magnitude, from which we derive a flare amplitude of $Delta V sim 10$. We determine an r-band absolute magnitude of $M_{r} = 11.4$, consistent with a mid-M dwarf, and an approximate distance to the source of $2.2$ kpc. Using classical-flare models, we infer a flare energy of $E_{V} simeq (4.1pm 2.2)times 10^{36}$ ergs, making this one of the strongest flares documented on an M dwarf.
Despite its fundamental importance, a reliable estimate of the Galactic nova rate has remained elusive. Here, the overall Galactic nova rate is estimated by extrapolating the observed rate for novae reaching $mleq2$ to include the entire Galaxy using a two component disk plus bulge model for the distribution of stars in the Milky Way. The present analysis improves on previous work by considering important corrections for incompleteness in the observed rate of bright novae and by employing a Monte Carlo analysis to better estimate the uncertainty in the derived nova rates. Several models are considered to account for differences in the assumed properties of bulge and disk nova populations and in the absolute magnitude distribution. The simplest models, which assume uniform properties between bulge and disk novae, predict Galactic nova rates of $sim$50 to in excess of 100 per year, depending on the assumed incompleteness at bright magnitudes. Models where the disk novae are assumed to be more luminous than bulge novae are explored, and predict nova rates up to 30% lower, in the range of $sim$35 to $sim$75 per year. An average of the most plausible models yields a rate of $50_{-23}^{+31}$ yr$^{-1}$, which is arguably the best estimate currently available for the nova rate in the Galaxy. Virtually all models produce rates that represent significant increases over recent estimates, and bring the Galactic nova rate into better agreement with that expected based on comparison with the latest results from extragalactic surveys.
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