Olive cultivation is witnessing a remarkable development in the Syrian Arab
Republic in terms of area cultivated and the number of trees and the quality of
cultivated varieties of olives. The result of this evolution Syria occupied first place in
the Arab and olive production ranked fifth in the world after Spain, Italy, Greece
and Turkey, by passing Tunisia, which occupies the first place was an Arab.
Olive production as dependent variable is affected by much of the factors which can
be considered independent: The number of trees and age of tree and tree type and
amount of rainfall, temperature and location of olive cultivation…… However, the
most important influence on the production of olive is a phenomenon alternate fruit
bearing in fruit trees.This lead to the affected by a time series of olive production, in
addition to the regular periodic of other factors, the general trend and random
factors.
This study aims to provide a new method for modeling and analysis of time series
with a regular cyclical factors and its application to olive production in the Syrian
Arab Republic.
The study to develop an econometric model based on the proposed new method can
be used to predict the production of olive in Syria, and predict the size of production
until 2016. ...
The research aims to study the reality of olive production in the province of Latakia,
and of time-series extends from the year 2002 to the year 2013, and based on the indices,
growth rates, and simple regression, has been studying the reality and
the evolution of
olive production, and areas planted with olive trees, and the number of trees olive during
the period studied, and it was the most important results:
*The relationship between the olive production and the time during the period (2002-
2013) is a strong and positive relationship, where 73% of the developments in the
production of olive explained by changes of time, and the rest is due to the influence of
other factors not included in the model.
*The relationship between the cultivated olives space and time during the period
(2002-2013) is a very positive and strong relationship, where 87.3% of the developments
in the areas cultivated with olives interpret the changes of time, and the rest is due to the
influence of other factors not included in the model.
*The relationship between the olive trees and the time during the period (2002-2013)
is the relationship between positive and very strong, since 89% of the developments in the
olive trees explained by changes in time, and the rest is due to the influence of other factors
not included in the model.
