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We develop a novel hybrid epidemiological model and a specific methodology for its calibration to distinguish and assess the impact of mobility restrictions (given by Apples mobility trends data) from other complementary non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) used to control the spread of COVID-19. Using the calibrated model, we estimate that mobility restrictions contribute to 47 % (US States) and 47 % (worldwide) of the overall suppression of the disease transmission rate using data up to 13/08/2020. The forecast capacity of our model was evaluated doing four-weeks ahead predictions. Using data up to 30/06/20 for calibration, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the prediction of cumulative deceased individuals was 5.0 % for the United States (51 states) and 6.7 % worldwide (49 countries). This MAPE was reduced to 3.5% for the US and 3.8% worldwide using data up to 13/08/2020. We find that the MAPE was higher for the total confirmed cases at 11.5% worldwide and 10.2% for the US States using data up to 13/08/2020. Our calibrated model achieves an average R-Squared value for cumulative confirmed and deceased cases of 0.992 using data up to 30/06/20 and 0.98 using data up to 13/08/20.
We present modeling of the COVID-19 epidemic in Illinois, USA, capturing the implementation of a Stay-at-Home order and scenarios for its eventual release. We use a non-Markovian age-of-infection model that is capable of handling long and variable ti
Since December 2019, A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has been breaking out in China, which can cause respiratory diseases and severe pneumonia. Mathematical and empirical models relying on the epidemic situation scale for forecasting disease outbreak
We highlight the usefulness of city-scale agent-based simulators in studying various non-pharmaceutical interventions to manage an evolving pandemic. We ground our studies in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and demonstrate the power of the simul
When effective medical treatment and vaccination are not available, non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, home quarantine and far-reaching shutdown of public life are the only available strategies to prevent the spread of epidem
Infectious diseases and human behavior are intertwined. On one side, our movements and interactions are the engines of transmission. On the other, the unfolding of viruses might induce changes to our daily activities. While intuitive, our understandi