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Since December 2019, A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has been breaking out in China, which can cause respiratory diseases and severe pneumonia. Mathematical and empirical models relying on the epidemic situation scale for forecasting disease outbreaks have received increasing attention. Given its successful application in the evaluation of infectious diseases scale, we propose a Susceptible-Undiagnosed-Infected-Removed (SUIR) model to offer the effective prediction, prevention, and control of infectious diseases. Our model is a modified susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model that injects undiagnosed state and offers pre-training effective reproduction number. Our SUIR model is more precise than the traditional SIR model. Moreover, we combine domain knowledge of the epidemic to estimate effective reproduction number, which addresses the initial susceptible population of the infectious disease model approach to the ground truth. These findings have implications for the forecasting of epidemic trends in COVID-19 as these could help the growth of estimating epidemic situation.
We develop a novel hybrid epidemiological model and a specific methodology for its calibration to distinguish and assess the impact of mobility restrictions (given by Apples mobility trends data) from other complementary non-pharmaceutical interventi
We present modeling of the COVID-19 epidemic in Illinois, USA, capturing the implementation of a Stay-at-Home order and scenarios for its eventual release. We use a non-Markovian age-of-infection model that is capable of handling long and variable ti
An outbreak of respiratory disease caused by a novel coronavirus is ongoing from December 2019. As of July 22, 2020, it has caused an epidemic outbreak with more than 15 million confirmed infections and above 6 hundred thousand reported deaths worldw
When effective medical treatment and vaccination are not available, non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, home quarantine and far-reaching shutdown of public life are the only available strategies to prevent the spread of epidem
Within a short period of time, COVID-19 grew into a world-wide pandemic. Transmission by pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic viral carriers rendered intervention and containment of the disease extremely challenging. Based on reported infection case stud