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Small disturbances can trigger functional breakdowns in complex systems. A challenging task is to infer the structural cause of a disturbance in a networked system, soon enough to prevent a catastrophe. We present a graph neural network approach, borrowed from the deep learning paradigm, to infer structural perturbations from functional time series. We show our data-driven approach outperforms typical reconstruction methods while meeting the accuracy of Bayesian inference. We validate the versatility and performance of our approach with epidemic spreading, population dynamics, and neural dynamics, on various network structures: random networks, scale-free networks, 25 real food-web systems, and the C. Elegans connectome. Moreover, we report that our approach is robust to data corruption. This work uncovers a practical avenue to study the resilience of real-world complex systems.
One of the most pressing questions in climate science is that of the effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earths energy balance. Aerosols provide the `seeds on which cloud droplets form, and changes in the amount of aerosol available to a cloud can
Satellite remote sensing is playing an increasing role in the rapid mapping of damage after natural disasters. In particular, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) can image the Earths surface and map damage in all weather conditions, day and night. However
Multivariate time series are routinely encountered in real-world applications, and in many cases, these time series are strongly correlated. In this paper, we present a deep learning structural time series model which can (i) handle correlated multiv
Time series prediction can be generalized as a process that extracts useful information from historical records and then determines future values. Learning long-range dependencies that are embedded in time series is often an obstacle for most algorit
Many applications require the ability to judge uncertainty of time-series forecasts. Uncertainty is often specified as point-wise error bars around a mean or median forecast. Due to temporal dependencies, such a method obscures some information. We w