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In disease mapping, the aim is to estimate the spatial pattern in disease risk over an extended geographical region, so that areas with elevated risks can be identified. A Bayesian hierarchical approach is typically used to produce such maps, which models the risk surface with a set of spatially smooth random effects. However, in complex urban settings there are likely to be boundaries in the risk surface, which separate populations that are geographically adjacent but have very different risk profiles. Therefore this paper proposes an approach for detecting such risk boundaries, and tests its effectiveness by simulation. Finally, the model is applied to lung cancer incidence data in Greater Glasgow, Scotland, between 2001 and 2005.
We develop a new perturbation method for studying quasi-neutral competition in a broad class of stochastic competition models, and apply it to the analysis of fixation of competing strains in two epidemic models. The first model is a two-strain gener
The recurrent infectious diseases and their increasing impact on the society has promoted the study of strategies to slow down the epidemic spreading. In this review we outline the applications of percolation theory to describe strategies against epi
In this study, we develop the mathematical model to understand the coupling between the spreading dynamics of infectious diseases and the mobility dynamics through urban transportation systems. We first describe the mobility dynamics of the urban pop
The transmission of vector infectious diseases, which produces complex spatiotemporal patterns, is analyzed by a periodically forced two-dimensional cellular automata model. The system, which comprises three population levels, is introduced to descri
Disease mapping is the field of spatial epidemiology interested in estimating the spatial pattern in disease risk across $n$ areal units. One aim is to identify units exhibiting elevated disease risks, so that public health interventions can be made.