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We show how to account for correlations between theoretical uncertainties incorporated in parton distribution function (PDF) fits, and the theoretical uncertainties in the predictions made using these PDFs. We demonstrate by explicit calculations, both analytical and numerical, that these correlations can lead to corrections to the central values of the predictions, and reductions in both the PDF uncertainties and the theoretical uncertainties in the prediction. We illustrate our results with predictions for top production rapidity distributions and the Higgs total cross-section at the LHC, using the NLO NNPDF3.1 PDF set which incorporates missing higher order uncertainties. We conclude that the inclusion of correlations can increase both the accuracy and precision of predictions involving PDFs, particularly for processes with data already included in the PDF fit.
With present and future observations becoming of higher and higher quality, it is timely and necessary to investigate the most significant theoretical uncertainties in the predictions of inflation. We show that our ignorance of the entire history of
There is now a rapidly growing body of experimental data relevant to the question of whether the standard model CKM quark mixing matrix is a correct description of CP-violation as well as of non--CP-violating flavor decay processes. In the detailed c
We consider the problem of assigning a meaningful degree of belief to uncertainty estimates of perturbative series. We analyse the assumptions which are implicit in the conventional estimates made using renormalisation scale variations. We then formu
The studies of the Higgs boson couplings based on the recent and upcoming LHC data open up a new window on physics beyond the Standard Model. In this paper, we propose a statistical guide to the consistent treatment of the theoretical uncertainties e
The problem of estimating the effect of missing higher orders in perturbation theory is analyzed with emphasis in the application to Higgs production in gluon-gluon fusion. Well-known mathematical methods for an approximated completion of the perturb