اشترك بالحزمة الذهبية واحصل على وصول غير محدود شمرا أكاديميا
تسجيل مستخدم جديدMeaningful characterisation of perturbative theoretical uncertainties
255
0
0.0
(
0
)
اسأل ChatGPT حول البحث
ﻻ يوجد ملخص باللغة العربية
We consider the problem of assigning a meaningful degree of belief to uncertainty estimates of perturbative series. We analyse the assumptions which are implicit in the conventional estimates made using renormalisation scale variations. We then formulate a Bayesian model that, given equivalent initial hypotheses, allows one to characterise a perturbative theoretical uncertainty in a rigorous way in terms of a credibility interval for the remainder of the series. We compare its outcome to the conventional uncertainty estimates in the simple case of the calculation of QCD corrections to the e+e- -> hadrons process. We find comparable results, but with important conceptual differences. This work represents a first step in the direction of a more comprehensive and rigorous handling of theoretical uncertainties in perturbative calculations used in high energy phenomenology.
قيم البحث
اقرأ أيضاً
We develop a technique to present Higgs coupling measurements, which decouple the poorly defined theoretical uncertainties associated to inclusive and exclusive cross section predictions. The technique simplifies the combination of multiple measureme
nts and can be used in a more general setting. We illustrate the approach with toy LHC Higgs coupling measurements and a collection of new physics models.
We show how to account for correlations between theoretical uncertainties incorporated in parton distribution function (PDF) fits, and the theoretical uncertainties in the predictions made using these PDFs. We demonstrate by explicit calculations, bo
th analytical and numerical, that these correlations can lead to corrections to the central values of the predictions, and reductions in both the PDF uncertainties and the theoretical uncertainties in the prediction. We illustrate our results with predictions for top production rapidity distributions and the Higgs total cross-section at the LHC, using the NLO NNPDF3.1 PDF set which incorporates missing higher order uncertainties. We conclude that the inclusion of correlations can increase both the accuracy and precision of predictions involving PDFs, particularly for processes with data already included in the PDF fit.
The problem of estimating the effect of missing higher orders in perturbation theory is analyzed with emphasis in the application to Higgs production in gluon-gluon fusion. Well-known mathematical methods for an approximated completion of the perturb
ative series are applied with the goal to not truncate the series, but complete it in a well-defined way, so as to increase the accuracy - if not the precision - of theoretical predictions. The uncertainty arising from the use of the completion procedure is discussed and a recipe for constructing a corresponding probability distribution function is proposed.
Sunspot number series are subject to various uncertainties, which are still poorly known. The need for their better understanding was recently highlighted by the major makeover of the international Sunspot Number [Clette et al., Space Science Reviews
, 2014]. We present the first thorough estimation of these uncertainties, which behave as Poisson-like random variables with a multiplicative coefficient that is time- and observatory-dependent. We provide a simple expression for these uncertainties, and reveal how their evolution in time coincides with changes in the observations, and processing of the data. Knowing their value is essential for properly building composites out of multiple observations, and for preserving the stability of the composites in time.
We construct a theoretical model for equilibrium distribution of workers across sectors with different labor productivity, assuming that a sector can accommodate a limited number of workers which depends only on its productivity. A general formula fo
r such distribution of productivity is obtained, using the detail-balance condition necessary for equilibrium in the Ehrenfest-Brillouin model. We also carry out an empirical analysis on the average number of workers in given productivity sectors on the basis of an exhaustive dataset in Japan. The theoretical formula succeeds in explaining the two distinctive observational facts in a unified way, that is, a Boltzmann distribution with negative temperature on low-to-medium productivity side and a decreasing part in a power-law form on high productivity side.
سجل دخول لتتمكن من نشر تعليقات
التعليقات
جاري جلب التعليقات
سجل دخول لتتمكن من متابعة معايير البحث التي قمت باختيارها
