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Modeling geophysical processes as low-dimensional dynamical systems and regressing their vector field from data is a promising approach for learning emulators of such systems. We show that when the kernel of these emulators is also learned from data (using kernel flows, a variant of cross-validation), then the resulting data-driven models are not only faster than equation-based models but are easier to train than neural networks such as the long short-term memory neural network. In addition, they are also more accurate and predictive than the latter. When trained on geophysical observational data, for example, the weekly averaged global sea-surface temperature, considerable gains are also observed by the proposed technique in comparison to classical partial differential equation-based models in terms of forecast computational cost and accuracy. When trained on publicly available re-analysis data for the daily temperature of the North-American continent, we see significant improvements over classical baselines such as climatology and persistence-based forecast techniques. Although our experiments concern specific examples, the proposed approach is general, and our results support the viability of kernel methods (with learned kernels) for interpretable and computationally efficient geophysical forecasting for a large diversity of processes.
In this paper we advance physical background of the energy- and flux-budget turbulence closure based on the budget equations for the turbulent kinetic and potential energies and turbulent fluxes of momentum and buoyancy, and a new relaxation equation
Data-driven approaches, most prominently deep learning, have become powerful tools for prediction in many domains. A natural question to ask is whether data-driven methods could also be used to predict global weather patterns days in advance. First s
In recent years, there has been growing interest in using Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) derived from Global Positioning System (GPS) signal delays to predict rainfall. However, the occurrence of rainfall is dependent on a myriad of atmospheric param
Deep learning techniques for improving fluid flow modelling have gained significant attention in recent years. Advanced deep learning techniques achieve great progress in rapidly predicting fluid flows without prior knowledge of the underlying physic
The development of a set of high-order accurate finite-volume formulations for evaluation of the pressure gradient force in layered ocean models is described. A pair of new schemes are presented, both based on an integration of the contact pressure f