اشترك بالحزمة الذهبية واحصل على وصول غير محدود شمرا أكاديميا
تسجيل مستخدم جديدIncorporating Expert Guidance in Epidemic Forecasting
61
0
0.0
(
0
)
نشر من قبل
Alexander Rodr\\'iguez
تاريخ النشر
2020
مجال البحث
الهندسة المعلوماتية
والبحث باللغة
English
اسأل ChatGPT حول البحث
ﻻ يوجد ملخص باللغة العربية
Forecasting influenza like illnesses (ILI) has rapidly progressed in recent years from an art to a science with a plethora of data-driven methods. While these methods have achieved qualified success, their applicability is limited due to their inability to incorporate expert feedback and guidance systematically into the forecasting framework. We propose a new approach leveraging the Seldonian optimization framework from AI safety and demonstrate how it can be adapted to epidemic forecasting. We study two types of guidance: smoothness and regional consistency of errors, where we show that by its successful incorporation, we are able to not only bound the probability of undesirable behavior to happen, but also to reduce RMSE on test data by up to 17%.
قيم البحث
اقرأ أيضاً
In this paper, we study Reinforcement Learning from Demonstrations (RLfD) that improves the exploration efficiency of Reinforcement Learning (RL) by providing expert demonstrations. Most of existing RLfD methods require demonstrations to be perfect a
nd sufficient, which yet is unrealistic to meet in practice. To work on imperfect demonstrations, we first define an imperfect expert setting for RLfD in a formal way, and then point out that previous methods suffer from two issues in terms of optimality and convergence, respectively. Upon the theoretical findings we have derived, we tackle these two issues by regarding the expert guidance as a soft constraint on regulating the policy exploration of the agent, which eventually leads to a constrained optimization problem. We further demonstrate that such problem is able to be addressed efficiently by performing a local linear search on its dual form. Considerable empirical evaluations on a comprehensive collection of benchmarks indicate our method attains consistent improvement over other RLfD counterparts.
Neural networks (NNs) are widely used for classification tasks for their remarkable performance. However, the robustness and accuracy of NNs heavily depend on the training data. In many applications, massive training data is usually not available. To
address the challenge, this paper proposes an iterative adversarial data augmentation (IADA) framework to learn neural network models from an insufficient amount of training data. The method uses formal verification to identify the most confusing input samples, and leverages human guidance to safely and iteratively augment the training data with these samples. The proposed framework is applied to an artificial 2D dataset, the MNIST dataset, and a human motion dataset. By applying IADA to fully-connected NN classifiers, we show that our training method can improve the robustness and accuracy of the learned model. By comparing to regular supervised training, on the MNIST dataset, the average perturbation bound improved 107.4%. The classification accuracy improved 1.77%, 3.76%, 10.85% on the 2D dataset, the MNIST dataset, and the human motion dataset respectively.
Reasoning about the future behavior of other agents is critical to safe robot navigation. The multiplicity of plausible futures is further amplified by the uncertainty inherent to agent state estimation from data, including positions, velocities, and
semantic class. Forecasting methods, however, typically neglect class uncertainty, conditioning instead only on the agents most likely class, even though perception models often return full class distributions. To exploit this information, we present HAICU, a method for heterogeneous-agent trajectory forecasting that explicitly incorporates agents class probabilities. We additionally present PUP, a new challenging real-world autonomous driving dataset, to investigate the impact of Perceptual Uncertainty in Prediction. It contains challenging crowded scenes with unfiltered agent class probabilities that reflect the long-tail of current state-of-the-art perception systems. We demonstrate that incorporating class probabilities in trajectory forecasting significantly improves performance in the face of uncertainty, and enables new forecasting capabilities such as counterfactual predictions.
Accurate traffic state prediction is the foundation of transportation control and guidance. It is very challenging due to the complex spatiotemporal dependencies in traffic data. Existing works cannot perform well for multi-step traffic prediction th
at involves long future time period. The spatiotemporal information dilution becomes serve when the time gap between input step and predicted step is large, especially when traffic data is not sufficient or noisy. To address this issue, we propose a multi-spatial graph convolution based Seq2Seq model. Our main novelties are three aspects: (1) We enrich the spatiotemporal information of model inputs by fusing multi-view features (time, location and traffic states) (2) We build multiple kinds of spatial correlations based on both prior knowledge and data-driven knowledge to improve model performance especially in insufficient or noisy data cases. (3) A spatiotemporal attention mechanism based on reachability knowledge is novelly designed to produce high-level features fed into decoder of Seq2Seq directly to ease information dilution. Our model is evaluated on two real world traffic datasets and achieves better performance than other competitors.
The basic reproductive number -- $R_0$ -- is one of the most common and most commonly misapplied numbers in public health. Although often used to compare outbreaks and forecast pandemic risk, this single number belies the complexity that two differen
t pathogens can exhibit, even when they have the same $R_0$. Here, we show how to predict outbreak size using estimates of the distribution of secondary infections, leveraging both its average $R_0$ and the underlying heterogeneity. To do so, we reformulate and extend a classic result from random network theory that relies on contact tracing data to simultaneously determine the first moment ($R_0$) and the higher moments (representing the heterogeneity) in the distribution of secondary infections. Further, we show the different ways in which this framework can be implemented in the data-scarce reality of emerging pathogens. Lastly, we demonstrate that without data on the heterogeneity in secondary infections for emerging infectious diseases like COVID-19, the uncertainty in outbreak size ranges dramatically. Taken together, our work highlights the critical need for contact tracing during emerging infectious disease outbreaks and the need to look beyond $R_0$ when predicting epidemic size.
الأسئلة المقترحة
سجل دخول لتتمكن من نشر تعليقات
التعليقات
جاري جلب التعليقات
سجل دخول لتتمكن من متابعة معايير البحث التي قمت باختيارها
