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تسجيل مستخدم جديدCorrelation between COVID-19 morbidity and mortality rates in Japan and local population density, temperature and absolute humidity
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This study analyzed the morbidity and mortality rates of the COVID-19 pandemic in different prefectures of Japan. Under the constraint that daily maximum confirmed deaths and daily maximum cases should exceed 4 and 10, respectively, 14 prefectures were included, and cofactors affecting the morbidity and mortality rates were evaluated. In particular, the number of confirmed deaths was assessed excluding the cases of nosocomial infections and nursing home patients. A mild correlation was observed between morbidity rate and population density (R2=0.394). In addition, the percentage of the elderly per population was also found to be non-negligible. Among weather parameters, the maximum temperature and absolute humidity averaged over the duration were found to be in modest correlation with the morbidity and mortality rates, excluding the cases of nosocomial infections. The lower morbidity and mortality are observed for higher temperature and absolute humidity. Multivariate analysis considering these factors showed that determination coefficients for the spread, decay, and combined stages were 0.708, 0.785, and 0.615, respectively. These findings could be useful for intervention planning during future pandemics, including a potential second COVID-19 outbreak.
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This study analyzed the spread and decay durations of the COVID-19 pandemic in different prefectures of Japan. During the pandemic, affordable healthcare was widely available in Japan and the medical system did not suffer a collapse, making accurate
comparisons between prefectures possible. For the 16 prefectures included in this study that had daily maximum confirmed cases exceeding ten, the number of daily confirmed cases follow bell-shape or log-normal distribution in most prefectures. A good correlation was observed between the spread and decay durations. However, some exceptions were observed in areas where travelers returned from foreign countries, which were defined as the origins of infection clusters. Excluding these prefectures, the population density was shown to be a major factor affecting the spread and decay patterns, with R2=0.39 (p<0.05) and 0.42 (p<0.05), respectively, approximately corresponding to social distancing. The maximum absolute humidity was found to affect the decay duration normalized by the population density (R2>0.36, p <0.05). Our findings indicate that the estimated pandemic spread duration, based on the multivariate analysis of maximum absolute humidity, ambient temperature, and population density (adjusted R2=0.53, p-value<0.05), could prove useful for intervention planning during potential future pandemics, including a second COVID-19 outbreak.
We investigated daily COVID-19 cases and deaths in the 337 lower tier local authority regions in England and Wales to better understand how the disease propagated over a 15-month period. Population density scaling models revealed residual variance an
d skewness to be sensitive indicators of the dynamics of propagation. Lockdowns and schools reopening triggered increased variance indicative of outbreaks with local impact and country scale heterogeneity. University reopening and December holidays triggered reduced variance indicative of country scale homogenisation which reached a minimum in mid-January 2021. Homogeneous propagation was associated with better correspondence with normally distributed residuals while heterogeneous propagation was more consistent with skewed models. Skewness varied from strongly negative to strongly positive revealing an unappreciated feature of community propagation. Hot spots and super-spreading events are well understood descriptors of regional disease dynamics that would be expected to be associated with positively skewed distributions. Positively skewed behaviour was observed; however, negative skewness indicative of cold-spots and super-isolation dominated for approximately 8 months during the period of study. In contrast, death metrics showed near constant behaviour in scaling, variance, and skewness metrics over the full period with rural regions preferentially affected, an observation consistent with regional age demographics in England and Wales. Regional positions relative to density scaling laws were remarkably persistent after the first 5-9 days of the available data set. The determinants of this persistent behaviour probably precede the pandemic and remain unchanged.
Objectives: We aim to assess the impact of temperature and relative humidity on the transmission of COVID-19 across communities after accounting for community-level factors such as demographics, socioeconomic status, and human mobility status. Design
: A retrospective cross-sectional regression analysis via the Fama-MacBeth procedure is adopted. Setting: We use the data for COVID-19 daily symptom-onset cases for 100 Chinese cities and COVID-19 daily confirmed cases for 1,005 U.S. counties. Participants: A total of 69,498 cases in China and 740,843 cases in the U.S. are used for calculating the effective reproductive numbers. Primary outcome measures: Regression analysis of the impact of temperature and relative humidity on the effective reproductive number (R value). Results: Statistically significant negative correlations are found between temperature/relative humidity and the effective reproductive number (R value) in both China and the U.S. Conclusions: Higher temperature and higher relative humidity potentially suppress the transmission of COVID-19. Specifically, an increase in temperature by 1 degree Celsius is associated with a reduction in the R value of COVID-19 by 0.026 (95% CI [-0.0395,-0.0125]) in China and by 0.020 (95% CI [-0.0311, -0.0096]) in the U.S.; an increase in relative humidity by 1% is associated with a reduction in the R value by 0.0076 (95% CI [-0.0108,-0.0045]) in China and by 0.0080 (95% CI [-0.0150,-0.0010]) in the U.S. Therefore, the potential impact of temperature/relative humidity on the effective reproductive number alone is not strong enough to stop the pandemic.
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We proposed a Monte-Carlo method to estimate temporal reproduction number without complete information about symptom onsets of all cases. Province-level analysis demonstrated the huge success of Chinese control measures on COVID-19, that is, province
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