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We proposed a Monte-Carlo method to estimate temporal reproduction number without complete information about symptom onsets of all cases. Province-level analysis demonstrated the huge success of Chinese control measures on COVID-19, that is, provinces reproduction numbers quickly decrease to <1 by just one week after taking actions.
We revisit well-established concepts of epidemiology, the Ising-model, and percolation theory. Also, we employ a spin $S$ = 1/2 Ising-like model and a (logistic) Fermi-Dirac-like function to describe the spread of Covid-19. Our analysis reinforces we
We present modeling of the COVID-19 epidemic in Illinois, USA, capturing the implementation of a Stay-at-Home order and scenarios for its eventual release. We use a non-Markovian age-of-infection model that is capable of handling long and variable ti
Timely estimation of the current value for COVID-19 reproduction factor $R$ has become a key aim of efforts to inform management strategies. $R$ is an important metric used by policy-makers in setting mitigation levels and is also important for accur
The nation-wide lockdown starting 25 March 2020, aimed at suppressing the spread of the COVID-19 disease, was extended until 31 May 2020 in three subsequent orders by the Government of India. The extended lockdown has had significant social and econo
We study a simple realistic model for describing the diffusion of an infectious disease on a population of individuals. The dynamics is governed by a single functional delay differential equation, which, in the case of a large population, can be solv