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In this essay, I outline a personal vision of how I think Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) should evolve in the years leading up to 2030 and hence what it should look like in 2030. By NWP I mean initial-value predictions from timescales of hours to seasons ahead. Here I want to focus on how NWP can better help save lives from increasingly extreme weather in those parts of the world where society is most vulnerable. Whilst we can rightly be proud of many parts of our NWP heritage, its evolution has been influenced by national or institutional politics as well as by underpinning scientific principles. Sometimes these conflict with each other. It is important to be able to separate these issues when discussing how best meteorological science can serve society in 2030; otherwise any disruptive change - no matter how compelling the scientific case for it - becomes impossibly difficult.
The formation of precipitation in state-of-the-art weather and climate models is an important process. The understanding of its relationship with other variables can lead to endless benefits, particularly for the worlds monsoon regions dependent on r
We aim to study a finite volume scheme to solve the two dimensional inviscid primitive equations of the atmosphere with humidity and saturation, in presence of topography and subject to physically plausible boundary conditions to the system of equati
We show how two-dimensional mixed finite element methods that satisfy the conditions of finite element exterior calculus can be used for the horizontal discretisation of dynamical cores for numerical weather prediction on pseudo-uniform grids. This f
The atmosphere is chaotic. This fundamental property of the climate system makes forecasting weather incredibly challenging: its impossible to expect weather models to ever provide perfect predictions of the Earth system beyond timescales of approxim
This article takes the form of a tutorial on the use of a particular class of mixed finite element methods, which can be thought of as the finite element extension of the C-grid staggered finite difference method. The class is often referred to as co