اشترك بالحزمة الذهبية واحصل على وصول غير محدود شمرا أكاديميا
تسجيل مستخدم جديدSpatial analysis and prediction of COVID-19 spread in South Africa after lockdown
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What is the impact of COVID-19 on South Africa? This paper envisages assisting researchers and decision-makers in battling the COVID-19 pandemic focusing on South Africa. This paper focuses on the spread of the disease by applying heatmap retrieval of hotspot areas and spatial analysis is carried out using the Moran index. For capturing spatial autocorrelation between the provinces of South Africa, the adjacent, as well as the geographical distance measures, are used as a weight matrix for both absolute and relative counts. Furthermore, generalized logistic growth curve modeling is used for the prediction of the COVID-19 spread. We expect this data-driven modeling to provide some insights into hotspot identification and timeous action controlling the spread of the virus.
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A novel coronavirus originated from Wuhan, China in late December 2019 has now affected almost all countries worldwide. Pakistan reported its first case in late February. The country went to lockdown after three weeks since the first case, when the t
otal number of cases were over 880. Pakistan imposed a lockdown for more than a month which slowed the spread of COVID 19 effectively, however in late April relaxation in lockdown was allowed by the government in stages to lift the strain on the economy. In this study, the data has been analyzed from daily situation reports by the National Institute of Health Pakistan and the effects of initial strict lockdown and later smart lockdown have been studied. Our analysis showed a 13.14 Percentage increase in cases before lockdown which drops down to 6.55 percent during the lockdown. It proved the effectiveness of lockdown. However, the Percentage Increase in case grows up to 7.24 during a smart lockdown. If it continues to rise in this manner, Pakistan may need to enter again into a strict second lockdown.
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