ﻻ يوجد ملخص باللغة العربية
The Covid-19 epidemic of the novel coronavirus (severe acute respiratory syndrome SARS - CoV-2) has been spreading around the world. While different containment policies using non-pharmaceutical interventions have been applied, their efficiency are not known quantitatively. We show that the doubling time Td(t) with the success s factor, the characteristic time of the exponential growth of Td(t) in the arrested regime, is a reliable tool for early predictions of epidemic spread time evolution and it provides a quantitative measure of the success of different containment measures. The efficiency of the containment policy Lockdown case Finding mobile Tracing (LFT) using mandatory mobile contact tracing is much higher than the Lockdown Stop and Go (LSG) policy proposed by the Imperial College team in London. A very low s factor was reached by LFT policy giving the shortest time width of the dome of positive case curve and the lowest number of fatalities. The LFT policy has been able to reduce by a factor 100 the number of fatalities in the first 100 days of the Covid-19 epidemic, to reduce the time width of the Covid-19 pandemic dome by a factor 2.5 and to rapidly stop new outbreaks avoiding the second wave
Since the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China, numerous forecasting models have been proposed to project the trajectory of coronavirus infection cases. We propose a new discrete-time Markov chain transition matrix model that directly incor
Epidemics generally spread through a succession of waves that reflect factors on multiple timescales. On short timescales, super-spreading events lead to burstiness and overdispersion, while long-term persistent heterogeneity in susceptibility is exp
We present a simple analytical model to describe the fast increase of deaths produced by the corona virus (COVID-19) infections. The D (deaths) model comes from a simplified version of the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model known as SI model.
Within a short period of time, COVID-19 grew into a world-wide pandemic. Transmission by pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic viral carriers rendered intervention and containment of the disease extremely challenging. Based on reported infection case stud
The current outbreak is known as Coronavirus Disease or COVID-19 caused by the virus SAR-COV-2 which continues to wreak havoc across the globe. The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International C