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Reaction networks are often used to model interacting species in fields such as biochemistry and ecology. When the counts of the species are sufficiently large, the dynamics of their concentrations are typically modeled via a system of differential equations. However, when the counts of some species are small, the dynamics of the counts are typically modeled stochastically via a discrete state, continuous time Markov chain. A key quantity of interest for such models is the probability mass function of the process at some fixed time. Since paths of such models are relatively straightforward to simulate, we can estimate the probabilities by constructing an empirical distribution. However, the support of the distribution is often diffuse across a high-dimensional state space, where the dimension is equal to the number of species. Therefore generating an accurate empirical distribution can come with a large computational cost. We present a new Monte Carlo estimator that fundamentally improves on the classical Monte Carlo estimator described above. It also preserves much of classical Monte Carlos simplicity. The idea is basically one of conditional Monte Carlo. Our conditional Monte Carlo estimator has two parameters, and their choice critically affects the performance of the algorithm. Hence, a key contribution of the present work is that we demonstrate how to approximate optimal values for these parameters in an efficient manner. Moreover, we provide a central limit theorem for our estimator, which leads to approximate confidence intervals for its error.
Conditional value at risk (CVaR) is a popular measure for quantifying portfolio risk. Sensitivity analysis of CVaR is very useful in risk management and gradient-based optimization algorithms. In this paper, we study the infinitesimal perturbation an
Parametric sensitivity analysis is a critical component in the study of mathematical models of physical systems. Due to its simplicity, finite difference methods are used extensively for this analysis in the study of stochastically modeled reaction n
Probability measures supported on submanifolds can be sampled by adding an extra momentum variable to the state of the system, and discretizing the associated Hamiltonian dynamics with some stochastic perturbation in the extra variable. In order to a
This paper studies the rate of convergence for conditional quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC), which is a counterpart of conditional Monte Carlo. We focus on discontinuous integrands defined on the whole of $R^d$, which can be unbounded. Under suitable conditio
We propose a novel $hp$-multilevel Monte Carlo method for the quantification of uncertainties in the compressible Navier-Stokes equations, using the Discontinuous Galerkin method as deterministic solver. The multilevel approach exploits hierarchies o