ترغب بنشر مسار تعليمي؟ اضغط هنا

Posterior Consistency for a Non-parametric Survival Model under a Gaussian Process Prior

142   0   0.0 ( 0 )
 نشر من قبل Tamara Fernandez
 تاريخ النشر 2016
  مجال البحث الاحصاء الرياضي
والبحث باللغة English




اسأل ChatGPT حول البحث

In this paper, we prove almost surely consistency of a Survival Analysis model, which puts a Gaussian process, mapped to the unit interval, as a prior on the so-called hazard function. We assume our data is given by survival lifetimes $T$ belonging to $mathbb{R}^{+}$, and covariates on $[0,1]^d$, where $d$ is an arbitrary dimension. We define an appropriate metric for survival functions and prove posterior consistency with respect to this metric. Our proof is based on an extension of the theorem of Schwartz (1965), which gives general conditions for proving almost surely consistency in the setting of non i.i.d random variables. Due to the nature of our data, several results for Gaussian processes on $mathbb{R}^+$ are proved which may be of independent interest.

قيم البحث

اقرأ أيضاً

Various nonparametric approaches for Bayesian spectral density estimation of stationary time series have been suggested in the literature, mostly based on the Whittle likelihood approximation. A generalization of this approximation has been proposed in Kirch et al. who prove posterior consistency for spectral density estimation in combination with the Bernstein-Dirichlet process prior for Gaussian time series. In this paper, we will extend the posterior consistency result to non-Gaussian time series by employing a general consistency theorem of Shalizi for dependent data and misspecified models. As a special case, posterior consistency for the spectral density under the Whittle likelihood as proposed by Choudhuri, Ghosal and Roy is also extended to non-Gaussian time series. Small sample properties of this approach are illustrated with several examples of non-Gaussian time series.
We show that diffusion processes can be exploited to study the posterior contraction rates of parameters in Bayesian models. By treating the posterior distribution as a stationary distribution of a stochastic differential equation (SDE), posterior co nvergence rates can be established via control of the moments of the corresponding SDE. Our results depend on the structure of the population log-likelihood function, obtained in the limit of an infinite sample sample size, and stochastic perturbation bounds between the population and sample log-likelihood functions. When the population log-likelihood is strongly concave, we establish posterior convergence of a $d$-dimensional parameter at the optimal rate $(d/n)^{1/ 2}$. In the weakly concave setting, we show that the convergence rate is determined by the unique solution of a non-linear equation that arises from the interplay between the degree of weak concavity and the stochastic perturbation bounds. We illustrate this general theory by deriving posterior convergence rates for three concrete examples: Bayesian logistic regression models, Bayesian single index models, and over-specified Bayesian mixture models.
145 - Jean-Marc Azais 2018
We consider the semi-parametric estimation of a scale parameter of a one-dimensional Gaussian process with known smoothness. We suggest an estimator based on quadratic variations and on the moment method. We provide asymptotic approximations of the m ean and variance of this estimator, together with asymptotic normality results, for a large class of Gaussian processes. We allow for general mean functions and study the aggregation of several estimators based on various variation sequences. In extensive simulation studies, we show that the asymptotic results accurately depict thefinite-sample situations already for small to moderate sample sizes. We also compare various variation sequences and highlight the efficiency of the aggregation procedure.
We prove uniform consistency of Random Survival Forests (RSF), a newly introduced forest ensemble learner for analysis of right-censored survival data. Consistency is proven under general splitting rules, bootstrapping, and random selection of variab les--that is, under true implementation of the methodology. A key assumption made is that all variables are factors. Although this assumes that the feature space has finite cardinality, in practice the space can be a extremely large--indeed, current computational procedures do not properly deal with this setting. An indirect consequence of this work is the introduction of new computational methodology for dealing with factors with unlimited number of labels.
In this paper,we consider a macro approximation of the flow of a risk reserve, The process is observed at discrete time points. Because we cannot directly observe each jump time and size then we will make use of a technique for identifying the times when jumps larger than a suitably defined threshold occurred. We estimate the jump size and survival probability of our risk process from discrete observations.
التعليقات
جاري جلب التعليقات جاري جلب التعليقات
سجل دخول لتتمكن من متابعة معايير البحث التي قمت باختيارها
mircosoft-partner

هل ترغب بارسال اشعارات عن اخر التحديثات في شمرا-اكاديميا