ترغب بنشر مسار تعليمي؟ اضغط هنا

Pointwise Adaptive Estimation of the MarginalDensity of a Weakly Dependent Process

83   0   0.0 ( 0 )
 نشر من قبل Karine Bertin
 تاريخ النشر 2016
  مجال البحث الاحصاء الرياضي
والبحث باللغة English




اسأل ChatGPT حول البحث

This paper is devoted to the estimation of the common marginal density function of weakly dependent processes. The accuracy of estimation is measured using pointwise risks. We propose a datadriven procedure using kernel rules. The bandwidth is selected using the approach of Goldenshluger and Lepski and we prove that the resulting estimator satisfies an oracle type inequality. The procedure is also proved to be adaptive (in a minimax framework) over a scale of Holder balls for several types of dependence: stong mixing processes, $lambda$-dependent processes or i.i.d. sequences can be considered using a single procedure of estimation. Some simulations illustrate the performance of the proposed method.



قيم البحث

اقرأ أيضاً

152 - Karine Bertin 2013
In this paper we consider the problem of estimating $f$, the conditional density of $Y$ given $X$, by using an independent sample distributed as $(X,Y)$ in the multivariate setting. We consider the estimation of $f(x,.)$ where $x$ is a fixed point. W e define two different procedures of estimation, the first one using kernel rules, the second one inspired from projection methods. Both adapted estimators are tuned by using the Goldenshluger and Lepski methodology. After deriving lower bounds, we show that these procedures satisfy oracle inequalities and are optimal from the minimax point of view on anisotropic H{o}lder balls. Furthermore, our results allow us to measure precisely the influence of $mathrm{f}_X(x)$ on rates of convergence, where $mathrm{f}_X$ is the density of $X$. Finally, some simulations illustrate the good behavior of our tuned estimates in practice.
145 - Jean-Marc Azais 2018
We consider the semi-parametric estimation of a scale parameter of a one-dimensional Gaussian process with known smoothness. We suggest an estimator based on quadratic variations and on the moment method. We provide asymptotic approximations of the m ean and variance of this estimator, together with asymptotic normality results, for a large class of Gaussian processes. We allow for general mean functions and study the aggregation of several estimators based on various variation sequences. In extensive simulation studies, we show that the asymptotic results accurately depict thefinite-sample situations already for small to moderate sample sizes. We also compare various variation sequences and highlight the efficiency of the aggregation procedure.
We introduce the ARMA (autoregressive-moving-average) point process, which is a Hawkes process driven by a Neyman-Scott process with Poisson immigration. It contains both the Hawkes and Neyman-Scott process as special cases and naturally combines sel f-exciting and shot-noise cluster mechanisms, useful in a variety of applications. The name ARMA is used because the ARMA point process is an appropriate analogue of the ARMA time series model for integer-valued series. As such, the ARMA point process framework accommodates a flexible family of models sharing methodological and mathematical similarities with ARMA time series. We derive an estimation procedure for ARMA point processes, as well as the integer ARMA models, based on an MCEM (Monte Carlo Expectation Maximization) algorithm. This powerful framework for estimation accommodates trends in immigration, multiple parametric specifications of excitement functions, as well as cases where marks and immigrants are not observed.
147 - Thomas Deschatre 2018
We consider a doubly stochastic Poisson process with stochastic intensity $lambda_t =n qleft(X_tright)$ where $X$ is a continuous It^o semimartingale and $n$ is an integer. Both processes are observed continuously over a fixed period $left[0,Tright]$ . An estimation procedure is proposed in a non parametrical setting for the function $q$ on an interval $I$ where $X$ is sufficiently observed using a local polynomial estimator. A method to select the bandwidth in a non asymptotic framework is proposed, leading to an oracle inequality. If $m$ is the degree of the chosen polynomial, the accuracy of our estimator over the Holder class of order $beta$ is $n^{frac{-beta}{2beta+1}}$ if $m geq lfloor beta rfloor$ and it is optimal in the minimax sense if $m geq lfloor beta rfloor$. A parametrical test is also proposed to test if $q$ belongs to some parametrical family. Those results are applied to French temperature and electricity spot prices data where we infer the intensity of electricity spot spikes as a function of the temperature.
We discuss parametric estimation of a degenerate diffusion system from time-discrete observations. The first component of the degenerate diffusion system has a parameter $theta_1$ in a non-degenerate diffusion coefficient and a parameter $theta_2$ in the drift term. The second component has a drift term parameterized by $theta_3$ and no diffusion term. Asymptotic normality is proved in three different situations for an adaptive estimator for $theta_3$ with some initial estimators for ($theta_1$ , $theta_2$), an adaptive one-step estimator for ($theta_1$ , $theta_2$ , $theta_3$) with some initial estimators for them, and a joint quasi-maximum likelihood estimator for ($theta_1$ , $theta_2$ , $theta_3$) without any initial estimator. Our estimators incorporate information of the increments of both components. Thanks to this construction, the asymptotic variance of the estimators for $theta_1$ is smaller than the standard one based only on the first component. The convergence of the estimators for $theta_3$ is much faster than the other parameters. The resulting asymptotic variance is smaller than that of an estimator only using the increments of the second component.
التعليقات
جاري جلب التعليقات جاري جلب التعليقات
سجل دخول لتتمكن من متابعة معايير البحث التي قمت باختيارها
mircosoft-partner

هل ترغب بارسال اشعارات عن اخر التحديثات في شمرا-اكاديميا