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M dwarfs are known to flare on timescales from minutes to hours, with flux increases of several magnitudes in the blue/near-UV. These frequent, powerful events, which are caused by magnetic reconnection, will have a strong observational signature in large, time-domain surveys. The radiation and particle fluxes from flares may also exert a significant influence on the atmospheres of orbiting planets, and affect their habitability. We present a statistical model of flaring M dwarfs in the Galaxy that allows us to predict the observed flare rate along a given line of sight for a particular survey depth and cadence. The parameters that enter the model are the Galactic structure, the distribution of magnetically active and inactive M dwarfs, and the flare frequency distribution (FFD) of both populations. The FFD is a function of spectral type, activity, and Galactic height. Although inactive M dwarfs make up the majority of stars in a magnitude-limited survey, the FFD of inactive stars is very poorly constrained. We have organized a flare monitoring campaign comprising hundreds of hours of new observations from both the ground and space to better constrain flare rates. Incorporating the new observations into our model provides more accurate predictions of stellar variability caused by flares on M dwarfs. We pay particular attention to the likelihood of flares appearing as optical transients (i.e., host star not seen in quiescent data).
As part of the Mega MUSCLES Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Treasury program, we obtained time-series ultraviolet spectroscopy of the M2.5V star, GJ~674. During the FUV monitoring observations, the target exhibited several small flares and one large fla
We present a large dataset of high cadence dMe flare light curves obtained with custom continuum filters on the triple-beam, high-speed camera system ULTRACAM. The measurements provide constraints for models of the NUV and optical continuum spectral
We present a flare rate analysis of 50,130 M dwarf light curves in SDSS Stripe 82. We identified 271 flares using a customized variability index to search ~2.5 million photometric observations for flux increases in the u- and g-bands. Every image of
We report and characterize a white-light superflare on a previously undiscovered M dwarf detected by the ASAS-SN survey. Employing various color-magnitude and color-spectral type relationships, we estimate several stellar parameters, including the qu
Despite its fundamental importance, a reliable estimate of the Galactic nova rate has remained elusive. Here, the overall Galactic nova rate is estimated by extrapolating the observed rate for novae reaching $mleq2$ to include the entire Galaxy using