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Generalized Milankovitch Cycles and Longterm Climatic Habitability

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 نشر من قبل David Spiegel
 تاريخ النشر 2010
  مجال البحث فيزياء
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 تأليف David S. Spiegel




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Although the Earths orbit is never far from circular, terrestrial planets around other stars might experience substantial changes in eccentricity that could lead to climate changes, including possible phase transitions such as the snowball transition (or its opposite). There is evidence that Earth has gone through at least one globally frozen, snowball state in the last billion years, which it is thought to have exited after several million years because global ice-cover shut off the carbonate-silicate cycle, thereby allowing greenhouse gases to build up to sufficient concentration to melt the ice. Due to the positive feedback caused by the high albedo of snow and ice, susceptibility to falling into snowball states might be a generic feature of water-rich planets with the capacity to host life. This paper has two main thrusts. First, we revisit one-dimensional energy balance climate models as tools for probing possible climates of exoplanets, investigate the dimensional scaling of such models, and introduce a simple algorithm to treat the melting of the ice layer on a globally-frozen planet. We show that if a terrestrial planet undergoes Milankovitch-like oscillations of eccentricity that are of great enough magnitude, it could melt out of a snowball state. Second, we examine the kinds of variations of eccentricity that a terrestrial planet might experience due to the gravitational influence of a giant companion. We show that a giant planet on a sufficiently eccentric orbit can excite extreme eccentricity oscillations in the orbit of a habitable terrestrial planet. More generally, these two results demonstrate that the longterm habitability (and astronomical observables) of a terrestrial planet can depend on the detailed architecture of the planetary system in which it resides.

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86 - David S. Spiegel 2010
Although our solar system features predominantly circular orbits, the exoplanets discovered so far indicate that this is the exception rather than the rule. This could have crucial consequences for exoplanet climates, both because eccentric terrestri al exoplanets could have extreme seasonal variation, and because giant planets on eccentric orbits could excite Milankovitch-like variations of a potentially habitable terrestrial planet,A^os eccentricity, on timescales of thousands-to-millions of years. A particularly interesting implication concerns the fact that the Earth is thought to have gone through at least one globally frozen, snowball state in the last billion years that it presumably exited after several million years of buildup of greenhouse gases when the ice-cover shut off the carbonate-silicate cycle. Water-rich extrasolar terrestrial planets with the capacity to host life might be at risk of falling into similar snowball states. Here we show that if a terrestrial planet has a giant companion on a sufficiently eccentric orbit, it can undergo Milankovitch-like oscillations of eccentricity of great enough magnitude to melt out of a snowball state.
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