We develop a new perturbation method for studying quasi-neutral competition in a broad class of stochastic competition models, and apply it to the analysis of fixation of competing strains in two epidemic models. The first model is a two-strain gener
alization of the stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model. Here we extend previous results due to Parsons and Quince (2007), Parsons et al (2008) and Lin, Kim and Doering (2012). The second model, a two-strain generalization of the stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model with population turnover, has not been studied previously. In each of the two models, when the basic reproduction numbers of the two strains are identical, a system with an infinite population size approaches a point on the deterministic coexistence line (CL): a straight line of fixed points in the phase space of sub-population sizes. Shot noise drives one of the strain populations to fixation, and the other to extinction, on a time scale proportional to the total population size. Our perturbation method explicitly tracks the dynamics of the probability distribution of the sub-populations in the vicinity of the CL. We argue that, whereas the slow strain has a competitive advantage for mathematically typical initial conditions, it is the fast strain that is more likely to win in the important situation when a few infectives of both strains are introduced into a susceptible population.
Fluctuations in systems away from thermal equilibrium have features that have no analog in equilibrium systems. One of such features concerns large rare excursions far from the stable state in the space of dynamical variables. For equilibrium systems
, the most probable fluctuational trajectory to a given state is related to the fluctuation-free trajectory back to the stable state by time reversal. This is no longer true for nonequilibrium systems, where the pattern of the most probable trajectories generally displays singularities. Here we study how the singularities emerge as the system is driven away from equilibrium, and whether a driving strength threshold is required for their onset. Using a resonantly modulated oscillator as a model, we identify two distinct scenarios, depending on the speed of the optimal path in thermal equilibrium. If the position away from the stable state along the optimal path grows exponentially in time, the singularities emerge without a threshold. We find the scaling of the location of the singularities as a function of the control parameter. If the growth away from the stable state is faster than exponential, characterized by the ability to reach infinity in finite time, there is a threshold for the onset of singularities, which we study for the model.
We develop a renormalization group method to investigate synchronization clusters in a one-dimensional chain of nearest-neighbor coupled phase oscillators. The method is best suited for chains with strong disorder in the intrinsic frequencies and cou
pling strengths. The results are compared with numerical simulations of the chain dynamics and good agreement in several characteristics is found. We apply the renormalization group and simulations to Lorentzian distributions of intrinsic frequencies and couplings and investigate the statistics of the resultant cluster sizes and frequencies, as well as the dependence of the characteristic cluster length upon parameters of these Lorentzian distributions.
The rate of metastable decay in nonequilibrium systems is expected to display scaling behavior: i.e., the logarithm of the decay rate should scale as a power of the distance to a bifurcation point where the metastable state disappears. Recently such
behavior was observed and some of the earlier predicted exponents were found in experiments on several types of systems described by a model of a modulated oscillator. Here we establish the range where different scaling behavior is displayed and show how the crossover between different types of scaling occurs. The analysis is done for a nonlinear oscillator with two coexisting stable states of forced vibrations. Our numerical calculations, based on the the instanton method allow the mapping of the entire parameter range of bi-stability. We find the regions where the scaling exponents are 1 or 3/2, depending on the damping. The exponent 3/2 is found to extend much further from the bifurcation then were it would be expected to hold as a result of an over-damped soft mode. We also uncover a new scaling behavior with exponent of $approx$ 1.3 which extends, numerically, beyond the close vicinity of the bifurcation point.
We report the results of a recent search for the lowest value of thermal noise that can be achieved in LIGO by changing the shape of mirrors, while fixing the mirror radius and maintaining a low diffractional loss. The result of this minimization is
a beam with thermal noise a factor of 2.32 (in power) lower than previously considered Mesa Beams and a factor of 5.45 (in power) lower than the Gaussian beams employed in the current baseline design. Mirrors that confine these beams have been found to be roughly conical in shape, with an average slope approximately equal to the mirror radius divided by arm length, and with mild corrections varying at the Fresnel scale. Such a mirror system, if built, would impact the sensitivity of LIGO, increasing the event rate of observing gravitational waves in the frequency range of maximum sensitivity roughly by a factor of three compared to an Advanced LIGO using Mesa beams (assuming all other noises remain unchanged). We discuss the resulting beam and mirror properties and study requirements on mirror tilt, displacement and figure error, in order for this beam to be used in LIGO detectors.
