The Causal-Neural Connection: Expressiveness, Learnability, and Inference

One of the central elements of any causal inference is an object called structural causal model (SCM), which represents a collection of mechanisms and exogenous sources of random variation of the system under investigation (Pearl, 2000). An important property of many kinds of neural networks is universal approximability: the ability to approximate any function to arbitrary precision. Given this property, one may be tempted to surmise that a collection of neural nets is capable of learning any SCM by training on data generated by that SCM. In this paper, we show this is not the case by disentangling the notions of expressivity and learnability. Specifically, we show that the causal hierarchy theorem (Thm. 1, Bareinboim et al., 2020), which describes the limits of what can be learned from data, still holds for neural models. For instance, an arbitrarily complex and expressive neural net is unable to predict the effects of interventions given observational data alone. Given this result, we introduce a special type of SCM called a neural causal model (NCM), and formalize a new type of inductive bias to encode structural constraints necessary for performing causal inferences. Building on this new class of models, we focus on solving two canonical tasks found in the literature known as causal identification and estimation. Leveraging the neural toolbox, we develop an algorithm that is both sufficient and necessary to determine whether a causal effect can be learned from data (i.e., causal identifiability); it then estimates the effect whenever identifiability holds (causal estimation). Simulations corroborate the proposed approach.

Learning Neural Generative Dynamics for Molecular Conformation Generation

We study how to generate molecule conformations (i.e., 3D structures) from a molecular graph. Traditional methods, such as molecular dynamics, sample conformations via computationally expensive simulations. Recently, machine learning methods have shown great potential by training on a large collection of conformation data. Challenges arise from the limited model capacity for capturing complex distributions of conformations and the difficulty in modeling long-range dependencies between atoms. Inspired by the recent progress in deep generative models, in this paper, we propose a novel probabilistic framework to generate valid and diverse conformations given a molecular graph. We propose a method combining the advantages of both flow-based and energy-based models, enjoying: (1) a high model capacity to estimate the multimodal conformation distribution; (2) explicitly capturing the complex long-range dependencies between atoms in the observation space. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed method on several benchmarks, including conformation generation and distance modeling tasks, with a significant improvement over existing generative models for molecular conformation sampling.

Predicting Infectiousness for Proactive Contact Tracing

The COVID-19 pandemic has spread rapidly worldwide, overwhelming manual contact tracing in many countries and resulting in widespread lockdowns for emergency containment. Large-scale digital contact tracing (DCT) has emerged as a potential solution to resume economic and social activity while minimizing spread of the virus. Various DCT methods have been proposed, each making trade-offs between privacy, mobility restrictions, and public health. The most common approach, binary contact tracing (BCT), models infection as a binary event, informed only by an individuals test results, with corresponding binary recommendations that either all or none of the individuals contacts quarantine. BCT ignores the inherent uncertainty in contacts and the infection process, which could be used to tailor messaging to high-risk individuals, and prompt proactive testing or earlier warnings. It also does not make use of observations such as symptoms or pre-existing medical conditions, which could be used to make more accurate infectiousness predictions. In this paper, we use a recently-proposed COVID-19 epidemiological simulator to develop and test methods that can be deployed to a smartphone to locally and proactively predict an individuals infectiousness (risk of infecting others) based on their contact history and other information, while respecting strong privacy constraints. Predictions are used to provide personalized recommendations to the individual via an app, as well as to send anonymized messages to the individuals contacts, who use this information to better predict their own infectiousness, an approach we call proactive contact tracing (PCT). We find a deep-learning based PCT method which improves over BCT for equivalent average mobility, suggesting PCT could help in safe re-opening and second-wave prevention.

HNHN: Hypergraph Networks with Hyperedge Neurons

Hypergraphs provide a natural representation for many real world datasets. We propose a novel framework, HNHN, for hypergraph representation learning. HNHN is a hypergraph convolution network with nonlinear activation functions applied to both hypernodes and hyperedges, combined with a normalization scheme that can flexibly adjust the importance of high-cardinality hyperedges and high-degree vertices depending on the dataset. We demonstrate improved performance of HNHN in both classification accuracy and speed on real world datasets when compared to state of the art methods.

Learning Causal Models Online

Predictive models -- learned from observational data not covering the complete data distribution -- can rely on spurious correlations in the data for making predictions. These correlations make the models brittle and hinder generalization. One solution for achieving strong generalization is to incorporate causal structures in the models; such structures constrain learning by ignoring correlations that contradict them. However, learning these structures is a hard problem in itself. Moreover, its not clear how to incorporate the machinery of causality with online continual learning. In this work, we take an indirect approach to discovering causal models. Instead of searching for the true causal model directly, we propose an online algorithm that continually detects and removes spurious features. Our algorithm works on the idea that the correlation of a spurious feature with a target is not constant over-time. As a result, the weight associated with that feature is constantly changing. We show that by continually removing such features, our method converges to solutions that have strong generalization. Moreover, our method combined with random search can also discover non-spurious features from raw sensory data. Finally, our work highlights that the information present in the temporal structure of the problem -- destroyed by shuffling the data -- is essential for detecting spurious features online.

COVI White Paper

The SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) pandemic has caused significant strain on public health institutions around the world. Contact tracing is an essential tool to change the course of the Covid-19 pandemic. Manual contact tracing of Covid-19 cases has significant challenges that limit the ability of public health authorities to minimize community infections. Personalized peer-to-peer contact tracing through the use of mobile apps has the potential to shift the paradigm. Some countries have deployed centralized tracking systems, but more privacy-protecting decentralized systems offer much of the same benefit without concentrating data in the hands of a state authority or for-profit corporations. Machine learning methods can circumvent some of the limitations of standard digital tracing by incorporating many clues and their uncertainty into a more graded and precise estimation of infection risk. The estimated risk can provide early risk awareness, personalized recommendations and relevant information to the user. Finally, non-identifying risk data can inform epidemiological models trained jointly with the machine learning predictor. These models can provide statistical evidence for the importance of factors involved in disease transmission. They can also be used to monitor, evaluate and optimize health policy and (de)confinement scenarios according to medical and economic productivity indicators. However, such a strategy based on mobile apps and machine learning should proactively mitigate potential ethical and privacy risks, which could have substantial impacts on society (not only impacts on health but also impacts such as stigmatization and abuse of personal data). Here, we present an overview of the rationale, design, ethical considerations and privacy strategy of `COVI, a Covid-19 public peer-to-peer contact tracing and risk awareness mobile application developed in Canada.

Object-Centric Image Generation from Layouts

Despite recent impressive results on single-object and single-domain image generation, the generation of complex scenes with multiple objects remains challenging. In this paper, we start with the idea that a model must be able to understand individual objects and relationships between objects in order to generate complex scenes well. Our layout-to-image-generation method, which we call Object-Centric Generative Adversarial Network (or OC-GAN), relies on a novel Scene-Graph Similarity Module (SGSM). The SGSM learns representations of the spatial relationships between objects in the scene, which lead to our models improved layout-fidelity. We also propose changes to the conditioning mechanism of the generator that enhance its object instance-awareness. Apart from improving image quality, our contributions mitigate two failure modes in previous approaches: (1) spurious objects being generated without corresponding bounding boxes in the layout, and (2) overlapping bounding boxes in the layout leading to merged objects in images. Extensive quantitative evaluation and ablation studies demonstrate the impact of our contributions, with our model outperforming previous state-of-the-art approaches on both the COCO-Stuff and Visual Genome datasets. Finally, we address an important limitation of evaluation metrics used in previous works by introducing SceneFID -- an object-centric adaptation of the popular Fr{e}chet Inception Distance metric, that is better suited for multi-object images.

Automated curriculum generation for Policy Gradients from Demonstrations

In this paper, we present a technique that improves the process of training an agent (using RL) for instruction following. We develop a training curriculum that uses a nominal number of expert demonstrations and trains the agent in a manner that draws parallels from one of the ways in which humans learn to perform complex tasks, i.e by starting from the goal and working backwards. We test our method on the BabyAI platform and show an improvement in sample efficiency for some of its tasks compared to a PPO (proximal policy optimization) baseline.

Wasserstein Dependency Measure for Representation Learning

Mutual information maximization has emerged as a powerful learning objective for unsupervised representation learning obtaining state-of-the-art performance in applications such as object recognition, speech recognition, and reinforcement learning. However, such approaches are fundamentally limited since a tight lower bound of mutual information requires sample size exponential in the mutual information. This limits the applicability of these approaches for prediction tasks with high mutual information, such as in video understanding or reinforcement learning. In these settings, such techniques are prone to overfit, both in theory and in practice, and capture only a few of the relevant factors of variation. This leads to incomplete representations that are not optimal for downstream tasks. In this work, we empirically demonstrate that mutual information-based representation learning approaches do fail to learn complete representations on a number of designed and real-world tasks. To mitigate these problems we introduce the Wasserstein dependency measure, which learns more complete representations by using the Wasserstein distance instead of the KL divergence in the mutual information estimator. We show that a practical approximation to this theoretically motivated solution, constructed using Lipschitz constraint techniques from the GAN literature, achieves substantially improved results on tasks where incomplete representations are a major challenge.

Hyperbolic Discounting and Learning over Multiple Horizons

Reinforcement learning (RL) typically defines a discount factor as part of the Markov Decision Process. The discount factor values future rewards by an exponential scheme that leads to theoretical convergence guarantees of the Bellman equation. However, evidence from psychology, economics and neuroscience suggests that humans and animals instead have hyperbolic time-preferences. In this work we revisit the fundamentals of discounting in RL and bridge this disconnect by implementing an RL agent that acts via hyperbolic discounting. We demonstrate that a simple approach approximates hyperbolic discount functions while still using familiar temporal-difference learning techniques in RL. Additionally, and independent of hyperbolic discounting, we make a surprising discovery that simultaneously learning value functions over multiple time-horizons is an effective auxiliary task which often improves over a strong value-based RL agent, Rainbow.