21cm emission from residual neutral hydrogen after the epoch of reionization can be used to trace the cosmological power spectrum of density fluctuations. Using a Fisher matrix formulation, we provide a detailed forecast of the constraints on cosmolo
gical parameters that are achievable with this probe. We consider two designs: a scaled-up version of the MWA observatory as well as a Fast Fourier Transform Telescope. We find that 21cm observations dedicated to post-reionization redshifts may yield significantly better constraints than next generation Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) experiments. We find the constraints on $Omega_Lambda$, $Omega_{rm m}h^2$, and $Omega_ u h^2$ to be the strongest, each improved by at least an order of magnitude over the Planck CMB satellite alone for both designs. Our results do not depend as strongly on uncertainties in the astrophysics associated with the ionization of hydrogen as similar 21cm surveys during the epoch of reionization. However, we find that modulation of the 21cm power spectrum from the ionizing background could potentially degrade constraints on the spectral index of the primordial power spectrum and its running by more than an order of magnitude. Our results also depend strongly on the maximum wavenumber of the power spectrum which can be used due to non-linearities.
We discuss the 21cm power spectrum (PS) following the completion of reionization. In contrast to the reionization era, this PS is proportional to the PS of mass density fluctuations, with only a small modulation due to fluctuations in the ionization
field on scales larger than the mean-free-path of ionizing photons. We derive the form of this modulation, and demonstrate that its effect on the 21cm PS will be smaller than 1% for physically plausible models of damped Ly-alpha systems. In contrast to the 21cm PS observed prior to reionization, in which HII regions dominate the ionization structure, the simplicity of the 21cm PS after reionization will enhance its utility as a cosmological probe by removing the need to separate the PS into physical and astrophysical components. As a demonstration, we consider the Alcock-Paczynski test and show that the next generation of low-frequency arrays could measure the angular distortion of the PS at the percent level for z~3-5.
We incorporate a contribution to reionization from X-rays within analytic and semi-numerical simulations of the 21-cm signal arising from neutral hydrogen during the epoch of reionization. We explore the impact that X-ray ionizations have on the powe
r spectrum (PS) of 21-cm fluctuations by varying both the average X-ray MFP and the fractional contribution of X-rays to reionization. In general, prior to the epoch when the intergalactic medium is dominated by ionized regions (H {sevensize II} regions), X-ray-induced ionization enhances fluctuations on spatial scales smaller than the X-ray MFP, provided that X-ray heating does not strongly supress galaxy formation. Conversely, at later times when H2 regions dominate, small-scale fluctuations in the 21-cm signal are suppressed by X-ray ionization. Our modelling also shows that the modification of the 21-cm signal due to the presence of X-rays is sensitive to the relative scales of the X-ray MFP, and the characteristic size of H2 regions. We therefore find that X-rays imprint an epoch and scale-dependent signature on the 21-cm PS, whose prominence depends on fractional X-ray contribution. The degree of X-ray heating of the IGM also determines the extent to which these features can be discerned. We show that the MWA will have sufficient sensitivity to detect this modification of the PS, so long as the X-ray photon MFP falls within the range of scales over which the array is most sensitive ($sim0.1$ Mpc$^{-1}$). In cases in which this MFP takes a much smaller value, an array with larger collecting area would be required.
Recently, a very large clustering length has been measured for quasars at a redshift of z~4. In combination with the observed quasar luminosity function we assess the implications of this clustering for the relationship between quasar luminosity and
dark matter halo mass. Our analysis allows for non-linearity and finite scatter in the relation between quasar luminosity and halo mass, as well as a luminosity dependent quasar lifetime. The additional novel ingredient in our modelling is the allowance for an excess in the observed bias over the underlying halo bias owing to the merger driven nature of quasar activity. We find that the observations of clustering and luminosity function can be explained only if both of the following conditions hold: (i) The luminosity to halo mass ratio increases with halo mass; (ii) The observed clustering amplitude is in excess of that expected solely from halo bias. The latter result is statistically significant at the 99% level. Taken together, the observations provide compelling evidence for merger driven quasar activity, with a black-hole growth that is limited by feedback. In difference from previous analyses, we show that there could be scatter in the luminosity halo mass relation of up to 1 dex, and that quasar clustering can not be used to estimate the quasar lifetime.
We investigate the impact of neutral hydrogen (HI) in galaxies on the statistics of 21-cm fluctuations using analytic and semi-numerical modelling. Following the reionisation of hydrogen the HI content of the Universe is dominated by damped absorptio
n systems (DLAs), with a cosmic density in HI that is observed to be constant at a level equal to ~2% of the cosmic baryon density from z~1 to z~5. We show that extrapolation of this constant fraction into the reionisation epoch results in a reduction of 10-20% in the amplitude of 21-cm fluctuations over a range of spatial scales. The assumption of a different percentage during the reionisation era results in a proportional change in the 21-cm fluctuation amplitude. We find that consideration of HI in galaxies/DLAs reduces the prominence of the HII region induced shoulder in the 21-cm power spectrum (PS), and hence modifies the scale dependence of 21-cm fluctuations. We also estimate the 21cm-galaxy cross PS, and show that the cross PS changes sign on scales corresponding to the HII regions. From consideration of the sensitivity for forthcoming low-frequency arrays we find that the effects of HI in galaxies/DLAs on the statistics of 21-cm fluctuations will be significant with respect to the precision of a PS or cross PS measurement. In addition, since overdense regions are reionised first we demonstrate that the cross-correlation between galaxies and 21-cm emission changes sign at the end of the reionisation era, providing an alternative avenue to pinpoint the end of reionisation. The sum of our analysis indicates that the HI content of the galaxies that reionise the universe will need to be considered in detailed modelling of the 21-cm intensity PS in order to correctly interpret measurements from forthcoming low-frequency arrays.
We assess the impact of Galactic synchrotron foreground removal on the observation of high-redshift quasar HII regions in redshifted 21-cm emission. We consider the case where a quasar is observed in an intergalactic medium (IGM) whose ionisation str
ucture evolves slowly relative to the light crossing time of the HII region, as well as the case where the evolution is rapid. The latter case is expected towards the end of the reionisation era where the highest redshift luminous quasars will be observed. In the absence of foregrounds the fraction of neutral hydrogen in the IGM could be measured directly from the contrast between the HII region and surrounding IGM. However, we find that foreground removal lowers the observed contrast between the HII region and the IGM. This indicates that measurement of the neutral fraction would require modelling to correct for this systematic effect. On the other hand, foreground removal does not modify the most prominent features of the 21-cm maps. Using a simple algorithm we demonstrate that measurements of the size and shape of observed HII regions will not be affected by continuum foreground removal. Moreover, measurements of these quantities will not be adversely affected by the presence of a rapidly evolving IGM.
Observations of damped Ly-alpha absorbers (DLA) indicate that the fraction of hydrogen in its neutral form (HI) is significant by mass at all redshifts. This gas represents the reservoir of material that is available for star formation at late times.
As a result, observational identification of the systems in which this neutral hydrogen resides is an important missing ingredient in models of galaxy formation. Precise identification of DLA host mass via traditional clustering studies is not practical owing to the small numbers of known systems being spread across sparsely distributed sight lines. However following the completion of reionization, 21cm surface brightness fluctuations will be dominated by neutral hydrogen in DLAs. Observations of these fluctuations will measure the combined clustering signal from all DLAs within a large volume. We show that measurement of the spherically averaged power-spectrum of 21cm intensity fluctuations due to DLAs could be used to measure the galaxy bias for DLA host galaxies when combined with an independent measurement of the cosmological HI mass density from quasar absorption studies. Utilising this technique, the low frequency arrays now under construction could measure the characteristic DLA host mass with a statistical precision as low as 0.3 dex at z~4. In addition, high signal-to-noise observations of the peculiar-motion induced anisotropy of the power-spectrum would facilitate measurement of both the DLA host mass and the cosmic HI density directly from 21cm fluctuations. By exploiting this anisotropy, a second generation of low frequency arrays with an order of magnitude increase in collecting area could measure the values of cosmic HI density and DLA host mass, with uncertainties of a few percent and a few tens of percent respectively.
We assess the impact of inhomogeneous reionization on detection of HII regions surrounding luminous high redshift quasars using planned low frequency radio telescopes. Our approach is to implement a semi-numerical scheme to calculate the 3-dimensiona
l structure of ionized regions surrounding a massive halo at high redshift, including the ionizing influence of a luminous quasar. As part of our analysis we briefly contrast our scheme with published semi-numerical models. We calculate mock 21cm spectra along the line of sight towards high redshift quasars, and estimate the ability of the planned Murchison Widefield Array to detect the presence of HII regions. The signal-to-noise for detection will drop as the characteristic bubble size grows during reionization because the quasars influence becomes less prominent. However, quasars will imprint a detectable signature on observed 21cm spectra that is distinct from a region of typical IGM. At epochs where the mean hydrogen neutral fraction is ~30% or greater we find that neutral gas in the IGM surrounding a single quasar will be detectable (at a significance of 5 sigma) within 100 hour integrations in more than 50% of cases. 1000 hour integrations will be required to detect a smaller neutral fraction of 15% in more than 50% of cases. A highly significant detection will be possible in only 100 hours for a stack of 10 smaller 3 proper Mpc HII regions. The accurate measurement of the global average neutral fraction (<x_HI>) will be limited by systematic fluctuations between lines of sight for single HII regions. We estimate the accuracy with which the global neutral fraction could be measured from a single HII region to be 50%, 30% and 20% for <x_HI> ~ 0.15, 0.3 and 0.5 respectively.
