The MEG inverse problem refers to the reconstruction of the neural activity of the brain from magnetoencephalography (MEG) measurements. We propose a two-way regularization (TWR) method to solve the MEG inverse problem under the assumptions that only
a small number of locations in space are responsible for the measured signals (focality), and each source time course is smooth in time (smoothness). The focality and smoothness of the reconstructed signals are ensured respectively by imposing a sparsity-inducing penalty and a roughness penalty in the data fitting criterion. A two-stage algorithm is developed for fast computation, where a raw estimate of the source time course is obtained in the first stage and then refined in the second stage by the two-way regularization. The proposed method is shown to be effective on both synthetic and real-world examples.
Two existing approaches to functional principal components analysis (FPCA) are due to Rice and Silverman (1991) and Silverman (1996), both based on maximizing variance but introducing penalization in different ways. In this article we propose an alte
rnative approach to FPCA using penalized rank one approximation to the data matrix. Our contributions are four-fold: (1) by considering invariance under scale transformation of the measurements, the new formulation sheds light on how regularization should be performed for FPCA and suggests an efficient power algorithm for computation; (2) it naturally incorporates spline smoothing of discretized functional data; (3) the connection with smoothing splines also facilitates construction of cross-validation or generalized cross-validation criteria for smoothing parameter selection that allows efficient computation; (4) different smoothing parameters are permitted for different FPCs. The methodology is illustrated with a real data example and a simulation.
We consider forecasting the latent rate profiles of a time series of inhomogeneous Poisson processes. The work is motivated by operations management of queueing systems, in particular, telephone call centers, where accurate forecasting of call arriva
l rates is a crucial primitive for efficient staffing of such centers. Our forecasting approach utilizes dimension reduction through a factor analysis of Poisson variables, followed by time series modeling of factor score series. Time series forecasts of factor scores are combined with factor loadings to yield forecasts of future Poisson rate profiles. Penalized Poisson regressions on factor loadings guided by time series forecasts of factor scores are used to generate dynamic within-process rate updating. Methods are also developed to obtain distributional forecasts. Our methods are illustrated using simulation and real data. The empirical results demonstrate how forecasting and dynamic updating of call arrival rates can affect the accuracy of call center staffing.
