The orbital eccentricity of a merging binary black hole leaves an imprint on the associated gravitational-wave signal that can reveal whether the binary formed in isolation or in a dynamical environment, such as the core of a dense star cluster. We p
resent measurements of the eccentricity of 26 binary black hole mergers in the second LIGO--Virgo gravitational-wave transient catalog, updating the total number of binary black holes analysed for orbital eccentricity to 36. Using the texttt{SEOBNRE} waveform, we find the data for GW190620A is poorly explained by the zero-eccentricity hypothesis (frequentist $p$-value $lesssim 0.1%$). With a uniform eccentricity prior, the data prefer $e_{10} geq 0.11$ at $90%$ credibility, while assuming a uniform-in-log eccentricity prior yields a $90%$ credible lower eccentricity limit of $0.001$. Using the log-uniform prior, the eccentricity at $10$ Hz for GW190620A is constrained to $e_{10}geq0.05$ ($0.1$) at $74%$ ($65%$) credibility. This is the second measurement of a binary black hole system with statistical support for non-zero eccentricity; the intermediate-mass black hole merger GW190521 was the first. Interpretation of these two events is currently complicated by waveform systematics; we are unable to simultaneously model the effects of relativistic precession and eccentricity. However, if these two events are, in fact, eccentric mergers, then there are potentially many more dynamically assembled mergers in the LIGO--Virgo catalog without measurable eccentricity; $gtrsim 27%$ of the observed LIGO--Virgo binaries may have been assembled dynamically in dense stellar environments ($95%$ credibility).
The detection of an intermediate-mass black hole population ($10^2-10^6 M_odot$) will provide clues to their formation environments (e.g., disks of active galactic nuclei, globular clusters) and illuminate a potential pathway to produce supermassive
black holes. Ground-based gravitational-wave detectors are sensitive to a subset of such mergers and have been used to detect one $142^{+28}_{-16} M_odot$ intermediate-mass black hole formation event. However, ground-based detector data contain numerous incoherent short duration noise transients that can mimic the gravitational-wave signals from merging intermediate-mass black holes, limiting the sensitivity of searches. Here we search for binary black hole mergers using a Bayesian-inspired ranking statistic which measures the coherence or incoherence of triggers in multiple-detector data. We use this statistic to identify candidate events with lab-frame total masses $gtrsim55 M_odot$ using data from LIGOs second observing run. Our analysis does not yield evidence for new intermediate-mass black holes. However, we find support for some stellar-mass binary black holes not reported in the first LIGO--Virgo gravitational-wave transient catalog, GWTC-1.
Observations of binary pulsars and pulsars in globular clusters suggest that at least some pulsars must receive weak natal kicks at birth. If all pulsars received strong natal kicks above unit[50]{kms}, those born in globular clusters would predomina
ntly escape, while wide binaries would be disrupted. On the other hand, observations of transverse velocities of isolated radio pulsars indicate that only $5pm2%$ have velocities below unit[50]{kms}. We explore this apparent tension with rapid binary population synthesis modelling. We propose a model in which supernovae with characteristically low natal kicks (e.g., electron-capture supernovae) only occur if the progenitor star has been stripped via binary interaction with a companion. We show that this model naturally reproduces the observed pulsar speed distribution and without reducing the predicted merging double neutron star yield. We estimate that the zero-age main sequence mass range for non-interacting progenitors of electron-capture supernovae should be no wider than ${approx}0.2 M_odot$.
Time series analysis is ubiquitous in many fields of science including gravitational-wave astronomy, where strain time series are analyzed to infer the nature of gravitational-wave sources, e.g., black holes and neutron stars. It is common in gravita
tional-wave transient studies to apply a tapered window function to reduce the effects of spectral artifacts from the sharp edges of data segments. We show that the conventional analysis of tapered data fails to take into account covariance between frequency bins, which arises for all finite time series -- no matter the choice of window function. We discuss the origin of this covariance and show that as the number of gravitational-wave detections grows, and as we gain access to more high signal-to-noise ratio events, this covariance will become a non-negligible source of systematic error. We derive a framework that models the correlation induced by the window function and demonstrate this solution using both data from the first LIGO--Virgo transient catalog and simulated Gaussian noise.
The no-hair theorem states that astrophysical black holes are fully characterised by just two numbers: their mass and spin. The gravitational-wave emission from a perturbed black-hole consists of a superposition of damped sinusoids, known as textit{q
uasi-normal modes}. Quasi-normal modes are specified by three integers $(ell,m,n)$: the $(ell, m)$ integers describe the angular properties and $(n)$ specifies the (over)tone. If the no-hair theorem holds, the frequencies and damping times of quasi-normal modes are determined uniquely by the mass and spin of the black hole, while phases and amplitudes depend on the particular perturbation. Current tests of the no-hair theorem, attempt to identify these modes in a semi-agnostic way, without imposing priors on the source of the perturbation. This is usually known as textit{black-hole spectroscopy}. Applying this framework to GW150914, the measurement of the first overtone led to the confirmation of the theorem to $20%$ level. We show, however, that such semi-agnostic tests cannot provide strong evidence in favour of the no-hair theorem, even for extremely loud signals, given the increasing number of overtones (and free parameters) needed to fit the data. This can be solved by imposing prior assumptions on the origin of the perturbed black hole that can further constrain the explored parameters: in particular, our knowledge that the ringdown is sourced by a binary black hole merger. Applying this strategy to GW150914 we find a natural log Bayes factor of $sim 6.5$ in favour of the Kerr nature of its remnant, indicating that the hairy object hypothesis is disfavoured with $<1:600$ with respect to the Kerr black-hole one.
Gravitational-wave observations of binary neutron star coalescences constrain the neutron-star equation of state by enabling measurement of the tidal deformation of each neutron star. This deformation is determined by the tidal deformability paramete
r $Lambda$, which was constrained using the first binary neutron star gravitational-wave observation, GW170817. Now, with the measurement of the second binary neutron star, GW190425, we can combine different gravitational-wave measurements to obtain tighter constraints on the neutron-star equation of state. In this paper, we combine data from GW170817 and GW190425 to place constraints on the neutron-star equation of state. To facilitate this calculation, we derive interpolated marginalized likelihoods for each event using a machine learning algorithm. These likelihoods, which we make publicly available, allow for results from multiple gravitational-wave signals to be easily combined. Using these new data products, we find that the radius of a fiducial 1.4 $M_odot$ neutron star is constrained to $11.6^{+1.6}_{-0.9}$ km at 90% confidence and the pressure at twice the nuclear saturation density is constrained to $3.1^{+3.1}_{-1.3}times10^{34}$ dyne/cm$^2$ at 90% confidence. This result is dominated by GW170817 and is consistent with findings from other works.
The past four years have seen a scientific revolution through the birth of a new field: gravitational-wave astronomy. The first detection of gravitational waves---recognised by the 2017 Nobel Prize in Physics---provided unprecedented tests of general
relativity while unveiling a previously unknown class of massive black holes, thirty times more massive than the Sun. The subsequent detection of gravitational waves from a merging binary neutron star confirmed the hypothesised connection between binary neutron stars and short gamma-ray bursts while providing an independent measurement of the expansion of the Universe. The discovery enabled precision measurement of the speed of gravity while shedding light on the origin of heavy elements. At the time of writing, the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) and its European partner, Virgo, have published the detection of eleven gravitational-wave events. New, not-yet-published detections are announced on a nearly weekly basis. This fast-growing catalogue of gravitational-wave transients is expected to yield insights into a number of topics, from the equation of state of matter at supra-nuclear densities to the fate of massive stars. The science potential of 3G observatories is enormous, enabling measurements of gravitational waves from the edge of the Universe and precise determination of the neutron star equation of state. Australia is well-positioned to help develop the required technology. The Mid-term Review for the Decadal plan for Australian astronomy 2016-2025 should consider investment in a scoping study for an Australian Gravitational-Wave Pathfinder that develops and validates core technologies required for the global 3G detector network.
Recent work highlights that tens of Galactic double neutron stars are likely to be detectable in the millihertz band of the space-based gravitational-wave observatory, LISA. Kyutoku and Nishino point out that some of these binaries might be detectabl
e as radio pulsars using the Square Kilometer Array (SKA). We point out that the joint LISA+SKA detection of a $f_text{gw}gtrsim$1 mHz binary, corresponding to a binary period of $lesssim$400 s, would enable precision measurements of ultra-relativistic phenomena. We show that, given plausible assumptions, multi-messenger observations of ultra-relativistic binaries can be used to constrain the neutron star equation of state with remarkable fidelity. It may be possible to measure the mass-radius relation with a precision of $approx$0.2% after 10 yr of observations with the SKA. Such a measurement would be roughly an order of magnitude more precise than possible with other proposed observations. We summarize some of the other remarkable science made possible with multi-messenger observations of millihertz binaries, and discuss the prospects for the detection of such objects.
The gravitational waveform of a merging stellar-mass binary is described at leading order by a quadrupolar mode. However, the complete waveform includes higher-order modes, which encode valuable information not accessible from the leading-order mode
alone. Despite this, the majority of astrophysical inferences so far obtained with observations of gravitational waves employ only the leading order mode because calculations with higher-order modes are often computationally challenging. We show how to efficiently incorporate higher-order modes into astrophysical inference calculations with a two step procedure. First, we carry out Bayesian parameter estimation using a computationally cheap leading-order-mode waveform, which provides an initial estimate of binary parameters. Second, we weight the initial estimate using higher-order mode waveforms in order to fold in the extra information from the full waveform. We use mock data to demonstrate the effectiveness of this method. We apply the method to each binary black hole event in the first gravitational-wave transient catalog GWTC-1 to obtain posterior distributions and Bayesian evidence with higher-order modes. Performing Bayesian model selection on the events in GWTC-1, we find only a weak preference for waveforms with higher order modes. We discuss how this method can be generalized to a variety of other applications.
This is an introduction to Bayesian inference with a focus on hierarchical models and hyper-parameters. We write primarily for an audience of Bayesian novices, but we hope to provide useful insights for seasoned veterans as well. Examples are drawn f
rom gravitational-wave astronomy, though we endeavor for the presentation to be understandable to a broader audience. We begin with a review of the fundamentals: likelihoods, priors, and posteriors. Next, we discuss Bayesian evidence, Bayes factors, odds ratios, and model selection. From there, we describe how posteriors are estimated using samplers such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms and nested sampling. Finally, we generalize the formalism to discuss hyper-parameters and hierarchical models. We include extensive appendices discussing the creation of credible intervals, Gaussian noise, explicit marginalization, posterior predictive distributions, and selection effects.
