Probabilistic methods have attracted much interest in fault detection design, but its need for complete distributional knowledge is seldomly fulfilled. This has spurred endeavors in distributionally robust fault detection (DRFD) design, which secures
robustness against inexact distributions by using moment-based ambiguity sets as a prime modelling tool. However, with the worst-case distribution being implausibly discrete, the resulting design suffers from over-pessimisim and can mask the true fault. This paper aims at developing a new DRFD design scheme with reduced conservatism, by assuming unimodality of the true distribution, a property commonly encountered in real-life practice. To tackle the chance constraint on false alarms, we first attain a new generalized Gauss bound on the probability outside an ellipsoid, which is less conservative than known Chebyshev bounds. As a result, analytical solutions to DRFD design problems are obtained, which are less conservative than known ones disregarding unimodality. We further encode bounded support information into ambiguity sets, derive a tightened multivariate Gauss bound, and develop approximate reformulations of design problems as convex programs. Moreover, the derived generalized Gauss bounds are broadly applicable to versatile change detection tasks for setting alarm thresholds. Results on a laborotary system shown that, the incorporation of unimodality information helps reducing conservatism of distributionally robust design and leads to a better tradeoff between robustness and sensitivity.
Sample-based approximate query processing (AQP) suffers from many pitfalls such as the inability to answer very selective queries and unreliable confidence intervals when sample sizes are small. Recent research presented an intriguing solution of com
bining materialized, pre-computed aggregates with sampling for accurate and more reliable AQP. We explore this solution in detail in this work and propose an AQP physical design called PASS, or Precomputation-Assisted Stratified Sampling. PASS builds a tree of partial aggregates that cover different partitions of the dataset. The leaf nodes of this tree form the strata for stratified samples. Aggregate queries whose predicates align with the partitions (or unions of partitions) are exactly answered with a depth-first search, and any partial overlaps are approximated with the stratified samples. We propose an algorithm for optimally partitioning the data into such a data structure with various practical approximation techniques.
Time series forecasting is an extensively studied subject in statistics, economics, and computer science. Exploration of the correlation and causation among the variables in a multivariate time series shows promise in enhancing the performance of a t
ime series model. When using deep neural networks as forecasting models, we hypothesize that exploiting the pairwise information among multiple (multivariate) time series also improves their forecast. If an explicit graph structure is known, graph neural networks (GNNs) have been demonstrated as powerful tools to exploit the structure. In this work, we propose learning the structure simultaneously with the GNN if the graph is unknown. We cast the problem as learning a probabilistic graph model through optimizing the mean performance over the graph distribution. The distribution is parameterized by a neural network so that discrete graphs can be sampled differentiably through reparameterization. Empirical evaluations show that our method is simpler, more efficient, and better performing than a recently proposed bilevel learning approach for graph structure learning, as well as a broad array of forecasting models, either deep or non-deep learning based, and graph or non-graph based.
Today, data analysts largely rely on intuition to determine whether missing or withheld rows of a dataset significantly affect their analyses. We propose a framework that can produce automatic contingency analysis, i.e., the range of values an aggreg
ate SQL query could take, under formal constraints describing the variation and frequency of missing data tuples. We describe how to process SUM, COUNT, AVG, MIN, and MAX queries in these conditions resulting in hard error bounds with testable constraints. We propose an optimization algorithm based on an integer program that reconciles a set of such constraints, even if they are overlapping, conflicting, or unsatisfiable, into such bounds. Our experiments on real-world datasets against several statistical imputation and inference baselines show that statistical techniques can have a deceptively high error rate that is often unpredictable. In contrast, our framework offers hard bounds that are guaranteed to hold if the constraints are not violated. In spite of these hard bounds, we show competitive accuracy to statistical baselines.
Scenario programs have established themselves as efficient tools towards decision-making under uncertainty. To assess the quality of scenario-based solutions a posteriori, validation tests based on Bernoulli trials have been widely adopted in practic
e. However, to reach a theoretically reliable judgement of risk, one typically needs to collect massive validation samples. In this work, we propose new a posteriori bounds for convex scenario programs with validation tests, which are dependent on both realizations of support constraints and performance on out-of-sample validation data. The proposed bounds enjoy wide generality in that many existing theoretical results can be incorporated as particular cases. To facilitate practical use, a systematic approach for parameterizing a posteriori probability bounds is also developed, which is shown to possess a variety of desirable properties allowing for easy implementations and clear interpretations. By synthesizing comprehensive information about support constraints and validation tests, improved risk evaluation can be achieved for randomized solutions in comparison with existing a posteriori bounds. Case studies on controller design of aircraft lateral motion are presented to validate the effectiveness of the proposed a posteriori bounds.
Knowledge graph embedding has been an active research topic for knowledge base completion, with progressive improvement from the initial TransE, TransH, DistMult et al to the current state-of-the-art ConvE. ConvE uses 2D convolution over embeddings a
nd multiple layers of nonlinear features to model knowledge graphs. The model can be efficiently trained and scalable to large knowledge graphs. However, there is no structure enforcement in the embedding space of ConvE. The recent graph convolutional network (GCN) provides another way of learning graph node embedding by successfully utilizing graph connectivity structure. In this work, we propose a novel end-to-end Structure-Aware Convolutional Network (SACN) that takes the benefit of GCN and ConvE together. SACN consists of an encoder of a weighted graph convolutional network (WGCN), and a decoder of a convolutional network called Conv-TransE. WGCN utilizes knowledge graph node structure, node attributes and edge relation types. It has learnable weights that adapt the amount of information from neighbors used in local aggregation, leading to more accurate embeddings of graph nodes. Node attributes in the graph are represented as additional nodes in the WGCN. The decoder Conv-TransE enables the state-of-the-art ConvE to be translational between entities and relations while keeps the same link prediction performance as ConvE. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed SACN on standard FB15k-237 and WN18RR datasets, and it gives about 10% relative improvement over the state-of-the-art ConvE in terms of HITS@1, HITS@3 and HITS@10.
We develop a novel data-driven robust model predictive control (DDRMPC) approach for automatic control of irrigation systems. The fundamental idea is to integrate both mechanistic models, which describe dynamics in soil moisture variations, and data-
driven models, which characterize uncertainty in forecast errors of evapotranspiration and precipitation, into a holistic systems control framework. To better capture the support of uncertainty distribution, we take a new learning-based approach by constructing uncertainty sets from historical data. For evapotranspiration forecast error, the support vector clustering-based uncertainty set is adopted, which can be conveniently built from historical data. As for precipitation forecast errors, we analyze the dependence of their distribution on forecast values, and further design a tailored uncertainty set based on the properties of this type of uncertainty. In this way, the overall uncertainty distribution can be elaborately described, which finally contributes to rational and efficient control decisions. To assure the quality of data-driven uncertainty sets, a training-calibration scheme is used to provide theoretical performance guarantees. A generalized affine decision rule is adopted to obtain tractable approximations of optimal control problems, thereby ensuring the practicability of DDRMPC. Case studies using real data show that, DDRMPC can reliably maintain soil moisture above the safety level and avoid crop devastation. The proposed DDRMPC approach leads to a 40% reduction of total water consumption compared to the fine-tuned open-loop control strategy. In comparison with the carefully tuned rule-based control and certainty equivalent model predictive control, the proposed DDRMPC approach can significantly reduce the total water consumption and improve the control performance.
Stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) has been a promising solution to complex control problems under uncertain disturbances. However, traditional SMPC approaches either require exact knowledge of probabilistic distributions, or rely on massive
scenarios that are generated to represent uncertainties. In this paper, a novel scenario-based SMPC approach is proposed by actively learning a data-driven uncertainty set from available data with machine learning techniques. A systematical procedure is then proposed to further calibrate the uncertainty set, which gives appropriate probabilistic guarantee. The resulting data-driven uncertainty set is more compact than traditional norm-based sets, and can help reducing conservatism of control actions. Meanwhile, the proposed method requires less data samples than traditional scenario-based SMPC approaches, thereby enhancing the practicability of SMPC. Finally the optimal control problem is cast as a single-stage robust optimization problem, which can be solved efficiently by deriving the robust counterpart problem. The feasibility and stability issue is also discussed in detail. The efficacy of the proposed approach is demonstrated through a two-mass-spring system and a building energy control problem under uncertain disturbances.
Graph convolutional network (GCN) is generalization of convolutional neural network (CNN) to work with arbitrarily structured graphs. A binary adjacency matrix is commonly used in training a GCN. Recently, the attention mechanism allows the network t
o learn a dynamic and adaptive aggregation of the neighborhood. We propose a new GCN model on the graphs where edges are characterized in multiple views or precisely in terms of multiple relationships. For instance, in chemical graph theory, compound structures are often represented by the hydrogen-depleted molecular graph where nodes correspond to atoms and edges correspond to chemical bonds. Multiple attributes can be important to characterize chemical bonds, such as atom pair (the types of atoms that a bond connects), aromaticity, and whether a bond is in a ring. The different attributes lead to different graph representations for the same molecule. There is growing interests in both chemistry and machine learning fields to directly learn molecular properties of compounds from the molecular graph, instead of from fingerprints predefined by chemists. The proposed GCN model, which we call edge attention-based multi-relational GCN (EAGCN), jointly learns attention weights and node features in graph convolution. For each bond attribute, a real-valued attention matrix is used to replace the binary adjacency matrix. By designing a dictionary for the edge attention, and forming the attention matrix of each molecule by looking up the dictionary, the EAGCN exploits correspondence between bonds in different molecules. The prediction of compound properties is based on the aggregated node features, which is independent of the varying molecule (graph) size. We demonstrate the efficacy of the EAGCN on multiple chemical datasets: Tox21, HIV, Freesolv, and Lipophilicity, and interpret the resultant attention weights.
