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Time series forecasting is an extensively studied subject in statistics, economics, and computer science. Exploration of the correlation and causation among the variables in a multivariate time series shows promise in enhancing the performance of a time series model. When using deep neural networks as forecasting models, we hypothesize that exploiting the pairwise information among multiple (multivariate) time series also improves their forecast. If an explicit graph structure is known, graph neural networks (GNNs) have been demonstrated as powerful tools to exploit the structure. In this work, we propose learning the structure simultaneously with the GNN if the graph is unknown. We cast the problem as learning a probabilistic graph model through optimizing the mean performance over the graph distribution. The distribution is parameterized by a neural network so that discrete graphs can be sampled differentiably through reparameterization. Empirical evaluations show that our method is simpler, more efficient, and better performing than a recently proposed bilevel learning approach for graph structure learning, as well as a broad array of forecasting models, either deep or non-deep learning based, and graph or non-graph based.
Probabilistic time series forecasting involves estimating the distribution of future based on its history, which is essential for risk management in downstream decision-making. We propose a deep state space model for probabilistic time series forecas
Modeling multivariate time series has long been a subject that has attracted researchers from a diverse range of fields including economics, finance, and traffic. A basic assumption behind multivariate time series forecasting is that its variables de
High-dimensional time series are common in many domains. Since human cognition is not optimized to work well in high-dimensional spaces, these areas could benefit from interpretable low-dimensional representations. However, most representation learni
This work proposes a novel approach for multiple time series forecasting. At first, multi-way delay embedding transform (MDT) is employed to represent time series as low-rank block Hankel tensors (BHT). Then, the higher-order tensors are projected to
Multivariate time-series forecasting plays a crucial role in many real-world applications. It is a challenging problem as one needs to consider both intra-series temporal correlations and inter-series correlations simultaneously. Recently, there have