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Register a new userFinding Patient Zero: Learning Contagion Source with Graph Neural Networks
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Added by
Nima Dehmamy
Publication date
2020
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Locating the source of an epidemic, or patient zero (P0), can provide critical insights into the infections transmission course and allow efficient resource allocation. Existing methods use graph-theoretic centrality measures and expensive message-passing algorithms, requiring knowledge of the underlying dynamics and its parameters. In this paper, we revisit this problem using graph neural networks (GNNs) to learn P0. We establish a theoretical limit for the identification of P0 in a class of epidemic models. We evaluate our method against different epidemic models on both synthetic and a real-world contact network considering a disease with history and characteristics of COVID-19. % We observe that GNNs can identify P0 close to the theoretical bound on accuracy, without explicit input of dynamics or its parameters. In addition, GNN is over 100 times faster than classic methods for inference on arbitrary graph topologies. Our theoretical bound also shows that the epidemic is like a ticking clock, emphasizing the importance of early contact-tracing. We find a maximum time after which accurate recovery of the source becomes impossible, regardless of the algorithm used.
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Link prediction is one of the central problems in graph mining. However, recent studies highlight the importance of higher-order network analysis, where complex structures called motifs are the first-class citizens. We first show that existing link prediction schemes fail to effectively predict motifs. To alleviate this, we establish a general motif prediction problem and we propose several heuristics that assess the chances for a specified motif to appear. To make the scores realistic, our heuristics consider - among others - correlations between links, i.e., the potential impact of some arriving links on the appearance of other links in a given motif. Finally, for highest accuracy, we develop a graph neural network (GNN) architecture for motif prediction. Our architecture offers vertex features and sampling schemes that capture the rich structural properties of motifs. While our heuristics are fast and do not need any training, GNNs ensure highest accuracy of predicting motifs, both for dense (e.g., k-cliques) and for sparse ones (e.g., k-stars). We consistently outperform the best available competitor by more than 10% on average and up to 32% in area under the curve. Importantly, the advantages of our approach over schemes based on uncorrelated link prediction increase with the increasing motif size and complexity. We also successfully apply our architecture for predicting more arbitrary clusters and communities, illustrating its potential for graph mining beyond motif analysis.
Although significant effort has been applied to fact-checking, the prevalence of fake news over social media, which has profound impact on justice, public trust and our society, remains a serious problem. In this work, we focus on propagation-based fake news detection, as recent studies have demonstrated that fake news and real news spread differently online. Specifically, considering the capability of graph neural networks (GNNs) in dealing with non-Euclidean data, we use GNNs to differentiate between the propagation patterns of fake and real news on social media. In particular, we concentrate on two questions: (1) Without relying on any text information, e.g., tweet content, replies and user descriptions, how accurately can GNNs identify fake news? Machine learning models are known to be vulnerable to adversarial attacks, and avoiding the dependence on text-based features can make the model less susceptible to the manipulation of advanced fake news fabricators. (2) How to deal with new, unseen data? In other words, how does a GNN trained on a given dataset perform on a new and potentially vastly different dataset? If it achieves unsatisfactory performance, how do we solve the problem without re-training the model on the entire data from scratch? We study the above questions on two datasets with thousands of labelled news items, and our results show that: (1) GNNs can achieve comparable or superior performance without any text information to state-of-the-art methods. (2) GNNs trained on a given dataset may perform poorly on new, unseen data, and direct incremental training cannot solve the problem---this issue has not been addressed in the previous work that applies GNNs for fake news detection. In order to solve the problem, we propose a method that achieves balanced performance on both existing and new datasets, by using techniques from continual learning to train GNNs incrementally.
Signed networks are such social networks having both positive and negative links. A lot of theories and algorithms have been developed to model such networks (e.g., balance theory). However, previous work mainly focuses on the unipartite signed networks where the nodes have the same type. Signed bipartite networks are different from classical signed networks, which contain two different node sets and signed links between two node sets. Signed bipartite networks can be commonly found in many fields including business, politics, and academics, but have been less studied. In this work, we firstly define the signed relationship of the same set of nodes and provide a new perspective for analyzing signed bipartite networks. Then we do some comprehensive analysis of balance theory from two perspectives on several real-world datasets. Specifically, in the peer review dataset, we find that the ratio of balanced isomorphism in signed bipartite networks increased after rebuttal phases. Guided by these two perspectives, we propose a novel Signed Bipartite Graph Neural Networks (SBGNNs) to learn node embeddings for signed bipartite networks. SBGNNs follow most GNNs message-passing scheme, but we design new message functions, aggregation functions, and update functions for signed bipartite networks. We validate the effectiveness of our model on four real-world datasets on Link Sign Prediction task, which is the main machine learning task for signed networks. Experimental results show that our SBGNN model achieves significant improvement compared with strong baseline methods, including feature-based methods and network embedding methods.
Diffusion source identification on networks is a problem of fundamental importance in a broad class of applications, including rumor controlling and virus identification. Though this problem has received significant recent attention, most studies have focused only on very restrictive settings and lack theoretical guarantees for more realistic networks. We introduce a statistical framework for the study of diffusion source identification and develop a confidence set inference approach inspired by hypothesis testing. Our method efficiently produces a small subset of nodes, which provably covers the source node with any pre-specified confidence level without restrictive assumptions on network structures. Moreover, we propose multiple Monte Carlo strategies for the inference procedure based on network topology and the probabilistic properties that significantly improve the scalability. To our knowledge, this is the first diffusion source identification method with a practically useful theoretical guarantee on general networks. We demonstrate our approach via extensive synthetic experiments on well-known random network models and a mobility network between cities concerning the COVID-19 spreading.
We propose a hierarchical graph neural network (GNN) model that learns how to cluster a set of images into an unknown number of identities using a training set of images annotated with labels belonging to a disjoint set of identities. Our hierarchical GNN uses a novel approach to merge connected components predicted at each level of the hierarchy to form a new graph at the next level. Unlike fully unsupervised hierarchical clustering, the choice of grouping and complexity criteria stems naturally from supervision in the training set. The resulting method, Hi-LANDER, achieves an average of 54% improvement in F-score and 8% increase in Normalized Mutual Information (NMI) relative to current GNN-based clustering algorithms. Additionally, state-of-the-art GNN-based methods rely on separate models to predict linkage probabilities and node densities as intermediate steps of the clustering process. In contrast, our unified framework achieves a seven-fold decrease in computational cost. We release our training and inference code at https://github.com/dmlc/dgl/tree/master/examples/pytorch/hilander.
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