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Register a new userA Critical View of the Structural Causal Model
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Added by
Tomer Galanti
Publication date
2020
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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In the univariate case, we show that by comparing the individual complexities of univariate cause and effect, one can identify the cause and the effect, without considering their interaction at all. In our framework, complexities are captured by the reconstruction error of an autoencoder that operates on the quantiles of the distribution. Comparing the reconstruction errors of the two autoencoders, one for each variable, is shown to perform surprisingly well on the accepted causality directionality benchmarks. Hence, the decision as to which of the two is the cause and which is the effect may not be based on causality but on complexity. In the multivariate case, where one can ensure that the complexities of the cause and effect are balanced, we propose a new adversarial training method that mimics the disentangled structure of the causal model. We prove that in the multidimensional case, such modeling is likely to fit the data only in the direction of causality. Furthermore, a uniqueness result shows that the learned model is able to identify the underlying causal and residual (noise) components. Our multidimensional method outperforms the literature methods on both synthetic and real world datasets.
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For decades, researchers in fields, such as the natural and social sciences, have been verifying causal relationships and investigating hypotheses that are now well-established or understood as truth. These causal mechanisms are properties of the natural world, and thus are invariant conditions regardless of the collection domain or environment. We show in this paper how prior knowledge in the form of a causal graph can be utilized to guide model selection, i.e., to identify from a set of trained networks the models that are the most robust and invariant to unseen domains. Our method incorporates prior knowledge (which can be incomplete) as a Structural Causal Model (SCM) and calculates a score based on the likelihood of the SCM given the target predictions of a candidate model and the provided input variables. We show on both publicly available and synthetic datasets that our method is able to identify more robust models in terms of generalizability to unseen out-of-distribution test examples and domains where covariates have shifted.
In this work, we consider the problem of robust parameter estimation from observational data in the context of linear structural equation models (LSEMs). LSEMs are a popular and well-studied class of models for inferring causality in the natural and social sciences. One of the main problems related to LSEMs is to recover the model parameters from the observational data. Under various conditions on LSEMs and the model parameters the prior work provides efficient algorithms to recover the parameters. However, these results are often about generic identifiability. In practice, generic identifiability is not sufficient and we need robust identifiability: small changes in the observational data should not affect the parameters by a huge amount. Robust identifiability has received far less attention and remains poorly understood. Sankararaman et al. (2019) recently provided a set of sufficient conditions on parameters under which robust identifiability is feasible. However, a limitation of their work is that their results only apply to a small sub-class of LSEMs, called ``bow-free paths. In this work, we significantly extend their work along multiple dimensions. First, for a large and well-studied class of LSEMs, namely ``bow free models, we provide a sufficient condition on model parameters under which robust identifiability holds, thereby removing the restriction of paths required by prior work. We then show that this sufficient condition holds with high probability which implies that for a large set of parameters robust identifiability holds and that for such parameters, existing algorithms already achieve robust identifiability. Finally, we validate our results on both simulated and real-world datasets.
In the past decade, contextual bandit and reinforcement learning algorithms have been successfully used in various interactive learning systems such as online advertising, recommender systems, and dynamic pricing. However, they have yet to be widely adopted in high-stakes application domains, such as healthcare. One reason may be that existing approaches assume that the underlying mechanisms are static in the sense that they do not change over different environments. In many real world systems, however, the mechanisms are subject to shifts across environments which may invalidate the static environment assumption. In this paper, we tackle the problem of environmental shifts under the framework of offline contextual bandits. We view the environmental shift problem through the lens of causality and propose multi-environment contextual bandits that allow for changes in the underlying mechanisms. We adopt the concept of invariance from the causality literature and introduce the notion of policy invariance. We argue that policy invariance is only relevant if unobserved confounders are present and show that, in that case, an optimal invariant policy is guaranteed to generalize across environments under suitable assumptions. Our results may be a first step towards solving the environmental shift problem. They also establish concrete connections among causality, invariance and contextual bandits.
Learning the causal structure that underlies data is a crucial step towards robust real-world decision making. The majority of existing work in causal inference focuses on determining a single directed acyclic graph (DAG) or a Markov equivalence class thereof. However, a crucial aspect to acting intelligently upon the knowledge about causal structure which has been inferred from finite data demands reasoning about its uncertainty. For instance, planning interventions to find out more about the causal mechanisms that govern our data requires quantifying epistemic uncertainty over DAGs. While Bayesian causal inference allows to do so, the posterior over DAGs becomes intractable even for a small number of variables. Aiming to overcome this issue, we propose a form of variational inference over the graphs of Structural Causal Models (SCMs). To this end, we introduce a parametric variational family modelled by an autoregressive distribution over the space of discrete DAGs. Its number of parameters does not grow exponentially with the number of variables and can be tractably learned by maximising an Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO). In our experiments, we demonstrate that the proposed variational posterior is able to provide a good approximation of the true posterior.
Constraint-based causal discovery from limited data is a notoriously difficult challenge due to the many borderline independence test decisions. Several approaches to improve the reliability of the predictions by exploiting redundancy in the independence information have been proposed recently. Though promising, existing approaches can still be greatly improved in terms of accuracy and scalability. We present a novel method that reduces the combinatorial explosion of the search space by using a more coarse-grained representation of causal information, drastically reducing computation time. Additionally, we propose a method to score causal predictions based on their confidence. Crucially, our implementation also allows one to easily combine observational and interventional data and to incorporate various types of available background knowledge. We prove soundness and asymptotic consistency of our method and demonstrate that it can outperform the state-of-the-art on synthetic data, achieving a speedup of several orders of magnitude. We illustrate its practical feasibility by applying it on a challenging protein data set.
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