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Register a new userThe Garden of Forking Paths: Towards Multi-Future Trajectory Prediction
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Added by
Junwei Liang
Publication date
2019
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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This paper studies the problem of predicting the distribution over multiple possible future paths of people as they move through various visual scenes. We make two main contributions. The first contribution is a new dataset, created in a realistic 3D simulator, which is based on real world trajectory data, and then extrapolated by human annotators to achieve different latent goals. This provides the first benchmark for quantitative evaluation of the models to predict multi-future trajectories. The second contribution is a new model to generate multiple plausible future trajectories, which contains novel designs of using multi-scale location encodings and convolutional RNNs over graphs. We refer to our model as Multiverse. We show that our model achieves the best results on our dataset, as well as on the real-world VIRAT/ActEV dataset (which just contains one possible future).
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We present a short survey of a novel approach, called ETH approach, to the quantum theory of events happening in isolated physical systems and to the effective time evolution of states of systems featuring events. In particular, we attempt to present a clear explanation of what is meant by an event in quantum mechanics and of the significance of this notion. We then outline a theory of direct (projective) and indirect observations or recordings of physical quantities and events. Some key ideas underlying our general theory are illustrated by studying a simple quantum-mechanical model of a mesoscopic system.
We propose a robust solution to future trajectory forecast, which can be practically applicable to autonomous agents in highly crowded environments. For this, three aspects are particularly addressed in this paper. First, we use composite fields to predict future locations of all road agents in a single-shot, which results in a constant time complexity, regardless of the number of agents in the scene. Second, interactions between agents are modeled as a non-local response, enabling spatial relationships between different locations to be captured temporally as well (i.e., in spatio-temporal interactions). Third, the semantic context of the scene are modeled and take into account the environmental constraints that potentially influence the future motion. To this end, we validate the robustness of the proposed approach using the ETH, UCY, and SDD datasets and highlight its practical functionality compared to the current state-of-the-art methods.
Human trajectory prediction has received increased attention lately due to its importance in applications such as autonomous vehicles and indoor robots. However, most existing methods make predictions based on human-labeled trajectories and ignore the errors and noises in detection and tracking. In this paper, we study the problem of human trajectory forecasting in raw videos, and show that the prediction accuracy can be severely affected by various types of tracking errors. Accordingly, we propose a simple yet effective strategy to correct the tracking failures by enforcing prediction consistency over time. The proposed re-tracking algorithm can be applied to any existing tracking and prediction pipelines. Experiments on public benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed method can improve both tracking and prediction performance in challenging real-world scenarios. The code and data are available at https://git.io/retracking-prediction.
It is essential but challenging to predict future trajectories of various agents in complex scenes. Whether it is internal personality factors of agents, interactive behavior of the neighborhood, or the influence of surroundings, it will have an impact on their future behavior styles. It means that even for the same physical type of agents, there are huge differences in their behavior preferences. Although recent works have made significant progress in studying agents multi-modal plannings, most of them still apply the same prediction strategy to all agents, which makes them difficult to fully show the multiple styles of vast agents. In this paper, we propose the Multi-Style Network (MSN) to focus on this problem by divide agents preference styles into several hidden behavior categories adaptively and train each categorys prediction network separately, therefore giving agents all styles of predictions simultaneously. Experiments demonstrate that our deterministic MSN-D and generative MSN-G outperform many recent state-of-the-art methods and show better multi-style characteristics in the visualized results.
We propose advances that address two key challenges in future trajectory prediction: (i) multimodality in both training data and predictions and (ii) constant time inference regardless of number of agents. Existing trajectory predictions are fundamentally limited by lack of diversity in training data, which is difficult to acquire with sufficient coverage of possible modes. Our first contribution is an automatic method to simulate diverse trajectories in the top-view. It uses pre-existing datasets and maps as initialization, mines existing trajectories to represent realistic driving behaviors and uses a multi-agent vehicle dynamics simulator to generate diverse new trajectories that cover various modes and are consistent with scene layout constraints. Our second contribution is a novel method that generates diverse predictions while accounting for scene semantics and multi-agent interactions, with constant-time inference independent of the number of agents. We propose a convLSTM with novel state pooling operations and losses to predict scene-consistent states of multiple agents in a single forward pass, along with a CVAE for diversity. We validate our proposed multi-agent trajectory prediction approach by training and testing on the proposed simulated dataset and existing real datasets of traffic scenes. In both cases, our approach outperforms SOTA methods by a large margin, highlighting the benefits of both our diverse dataset simulation and constant-time diverse trajectory prediction methods.
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