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Added by
Isht Dwivedi
Publication date
2020
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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We propose a robust solution to future trajectory forecast, which can be practically applicable to autonomous agents in highly crowded environments. For this, three aspects are particularly addressed in this paper. First, we use composite fields to predict future locations of all road agents in a single-shot, which results in a constant time complexity, regardless of the number of agents in the scene. Second, interactions between agents are modeled as a non-local response, enabling spatial relationships between different locations to be captured temporally as well (i.e., in spatio-temporal interactions). Third, the semantic context of the scene are modeled and take into account the environmental constraints that potentially influence the future motion. To this end, we validate the robustness of the proposed approach using the ETH, UCY, and SDD datasets and highlight its practical functionality compared to the current state-of-the-art methods.
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Understanding crowd motion dynamics is critical to real-world applications, e.g., surveillance systems and autonomous driving. This is challenging because it requires effectively modeling the socially aware crowd spatial interaction and complex temporal dependencies. We believe attention is the most important factor for trajectory prediction. In this paper, we present STAR, a Spatio-Temporal grAph tRansformer framework, which tackles trajectory prediction by only attention mechanisms. STAR models intra-graph crowd interaction by TGConv, a novel Transformer-based graph convolution mechanism. The inter-graph temporal dependencies are modeled by separate temporal Transformers. STAR captures complex spatio-temporal interactions by interleaving between spatial and temporal Transformers. To calibrate the temporal prediction for the long-lasting effect of disappeared pedestrians, we introduce a read-writable external memory module, consistently being updated by the temporal Transformer. We show that with only attention mechanism, STAR achieves state-of-the-art performance on 5 commonly used real-world pedestrian prediction datasets.
This paper studies the problem of predicting the distribution over multiple possible future paths of people as they move through various visual scenes. We make two main contributions. The first contribution is a new dataset, created in a realistic 3D simulator, which is based on real world trajectory data, and then extrapolated by human annotators to achieve different latent goals. This provides the first benchmark for quantitative evaluation of the models to predict multi-future trajectories. The second contribution is a new model to generate multiple plausible future trajectories, which contains novel designs of using multi-scale location encodings and convolutional RNNs over graphs. We refer to our model as Multiverse. We show that our model achieves the best results on our dataset, as well as on the real-world VIRAT/ActEV dataset (which just contains one possible future).
We propose advances that address two key challenges in future trajectory prediction: (i) multimodality in both training data and predictions and (ii) constant time inference regardless of number of agents. Existing trajectory predictions are fundamentally limited by lack of diversity in training data, which is difficult to acquire with sufficient coverage of possible modes. Our first contribution is an automatic method to simulate diverse trajectories in the top-view. It uses pre-existing datasets and maps as initialization, mines existing trajectories to represent realistic driving behaviors and uses a multi-agent vehicle dynamics simulator to generate diverse new trajectories that cover various modes and are consistent with scene layout constraints. Our second contribution is a novel method that generates diverse predictions while accounting for scene semantics and multi-agent interactions, with constant-time inference independent of the number of agents. We propose a convLSTM with novel state pooling operations and losses to predict scene-consistent states of multiple agents in a single forward pass, along with a CVAE for diversity. We validate our proposed multi-agent trajectory prediction approach by training and testing on the proposed simulated dataset and existing real datasets of traffic scenes. In both cases, our approach outperforms SOTA methods by a large margin, highlighting the benefits of both our diverse dataset simulation and constant-time diverse trajectory prediction methods.
Reasoning about the future behavior of other agents is critical to safe robot navigation. The multiplicity of plausible futures is further amplified by the uncertainty inherent to agent state estimation from data, including positions, velocities, and semantic class. Forecasting methods, however, typically neglect class uncertainty, conditioning instead only on the agents most likely class, even though perception models often return full class distributions. To exploit this information, we present HAICU, a method for heterogeneous-agent trajectory forecasting that explicitly incorporates agents class probabilities. We additionally present PUP, a new challenging real-world autonomous driving dataset, to investigate the impact of Perceptual Uncertainty in Prediction. It contains challenging crowded scenes with unfiltered agent class probabilities that reflect the long-tail of current state-of-the-art perception systems. We demonstrate that incorporating class probabilities in trajectory forecasting significantly improves performance in the face of uncertainty, and enables new forecasting capabilities such as counterfactual predictions.
Multi-agent interacting systems are prevalent in the world, from pure physical systems to complicated social dynamic systems. In many applications, effective understanding of the situation and accurate trajectory prediction of interactive agents play a significant role in downstream tasks, such as decision making and planning. In this paper, we propose a generic trajectory forecasting framework (named EvolveGraph) with explicit relational structure recognition and prediction via latent interaction graphs among multiple heterogeneous, interactive agents. Considering the uncertainty of future behaviors, the model is designed to provide multi-modal prediction hypotheses. Since the underlying interactions may evolve even with abrupt changes, and different modalities of evolution may lead to different outcomes, we address the necessity of dynamic relational reasoning and adaptively evolving the interaction graphs. We also introduce a double-stage training pipeline which not only improves training efficiency and accelerates convergence, but also enhances model performance. The proposed framework is evaluated on both synthetic physics simulations and multiple real-world benchmark datasets in various areas. The experimental results illustrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance in terms of prediction accuracy.
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