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Register a new userDetermination of the most influential climatic factors in the (rainfall-runoff) relationship using artificial neural networks / Case study: Al-Kabir Al-Shimalee river /
تحديد العناصر المناخية الأكثر تأثيراً على علاقة (الهطل-جريان) باستخدام الشبكات العصبية الاصطناعية / حالة دراسية: نهر الكبير الشمالي/
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تهدف هذه الدراسة إلى تحديد العناصر المناخية الأكثر تأثيرا على علاقة الهطل - جريان لنهر الكبير الشمالي, باستخدام الشبكات العصبية الاصطناعية. حيث احتوت مدخلات الشبكات العصبية على الهطل المطري و التدفق في النهر, وفق تأخرات زمنية مختلفة, بالإضافة إلى هنصر من العناصر المناخية في كل نموذج من النماذج, لتحديد النموذج الأفضل و الأكثر دقة.
the aim of this study is determination of the most influential climatic factors in the rainfall runoff relationship in Al-Kabir Al-shimalee river using artificial neural networks. The inputs included Precipitation, runoff, in different delays, in addition on لاclimate factor in each network, to determinate the best model.
References used
ANTAR, M. A; ELASSIOUTI, I; ALLAM, M. N. Rainfallrunoff modelling using artificial neural networks technique: a Blue Nile catchment case study. Hydrol. Process. 20, 1201– 1216, 2006
KALTEH, A. M. 2008 - Rainfall-runoff modelling using artificial neural networks (ANNs): modelling and understanding. Caspian J. Eng. Sci. Vol. 6 No.1. 53-58
KUMAR, M; RAGHUWANSHI, N. S; SINGH, R; WALLENDER, W. W; PRUITT, W. O, 2002. Estimating Evapotranspiration using Artificial Neural Network. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering
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Al-Kabeer Al-Shemale river rises from Aqraa Mountain and coastal mountains, it is considered one of the largest rivers in the coastal area.Its catchment area is 1097 km2, and empties into the sea to the southern of Lattakia.The study aims to determin
e the impact of climate change on the river discharge. Since the rainfall is the major factor in the runoff formation in the river catchment, the rainfall changes have been studied in climatic stations located within the catchment and its surroundings, and for a period of time exceeding thirty years. The study found that the general trend of rainfall change and runoff with time is decreasing, declining rainfall values ranged in the studied stations between (0.4-12.5) mm per year, and the runoff reached 0.08m3/s in the year. A mathematical equation, predict river discharge after knowing the values of daily precipitation, has been concluded.
The relationship between precipitation and surface runoff is one of
the fundamental components of the hydrological cycle of water in
nature and is one of the most complex and difficult to understand
because of the large number of parameters involv
ed in the
modeling of physical processes and the breadth of parmetry and
temporary change in basin specifications. Multiple rainfall models
Modeling the relationship between precipitation and runoff is very
important for engineering design and integrated water resources
management, as well as flood forecasting and risk prevention.
This study deals with the determination of total mercury concentration in the water
taken from three sites on Al-Kabeer Al-Shemaly River ( near the industrial area and Al-
Damat Lake, and 16 Tishreen Lake), also the effect of some physio-chemical p
arameters
including: DO, pH, T °C. of water in the three sites was studied.
Results showed that the total mercury concentration was low in general, where the
medium concentration in the three studied sites was 0.29 ppb and it was less than the
permission level of total mercury in the surface water(> 10 ppb), the higher value of the
medium concentration of total mercury(0.35, 0.31, 0.21)ppb was recorded in the Industrial
Area, Damat Lake, then 16 Tishreen Lake, respectively. For the changes in the total
concentration of mercury in the three studied sites during seasons of a year, was higher in
Summer comparing with other seasons. The results showed positive correlation coefficient
between the total mercury concentration and temperature, pH value, but it was negative
with DO in Summer.
Study of the general characteristics of Fractures in the central part of
the AL-Kabir AL- Shimali river basin showed the presence of
several main groups of Fractures with directions NE-SW _ NNESSW,
NW-SE , E-W.and showed increased fracture rate in
the
northern and southern parts of the study area, and that the spacing
between the Fractures close to the medium convergence (5-34) cm ,
also show a aperture ranged between (0.1-5.1) cm, where aperture
width was increased in southwest of Lake 16 October near Lattakia-
Kless fault .
This study has reached to that ANN (5-9-1) (five neurons in input
layer_nine neurons in hidden layer _ one neuron in output layer) is the
optimum artificial network that hybrid system has reached to it with
mean squared error equals (1*10^-4) (0.7
m3/sec), where this software
has summed up millions of experiments in one step and in limited time, it
has also given a zero value of a number of network connections, such as
some connections related of relative humidity input because of the lake
of impact this parameter on the runoff when other parameters are
avaliable.
This study recommend to use this technique in forecasting of
evaporation and other climatic elements.
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