No Arabic abstract
We study safe, data-driven control of (Markov) jump linear systems with unknown transition probabilities, where both the discrete mode and the continuous state are to be inferred from output measurements. To this end, we develop a receding horizon estimator which uniquely identifies a sub-sequence of past mode transitions and the corresponding continuous state, allowing for arbitrary switching behavior. Unlike traditional approaches to mode estimation, we do not require an offline exhaustive search over mode sequences to determine the size of the observation window, but rather select it online. If the system is weakly mode observable, the window size will be upper bounded, leading to a finite-memory observer. We integrate the estimation procedure with a simple distributionally robust controller, which hedges against misestimations of the transition probabilities due to finite sample sizes. As additional mode transitions are observed, the used ambiguity sets are updated, resulting in continual improvements of the control performance. The practical applicability of the approach is illustrated on small numerical examples.
Optimal control of a stochastic dynamical system usually requires a good dynamical model with probability distributions, which is difficult to obtain due to limited measurements and/or complicated dynamics. To solve it, this work proposes a data-driven distributionally robust control framework with the Wasserstein metric via a constrained two-player zero-sum Markov game, where the adversarial player selects the probability distribution from a Wasserstein ball centered at an empirical distribution. Then, the game is approached by its penalized version, an optimal stabilizing solution of which is derived explicitly in a linear structure under the Riccati-type iterations. Moreover, we design a model-free Q-learning algorithm with global convergence to learn the optimal controller. Finally, we verify the effectiveness of the proposed learning algorithm and demonstrate its robustness to the probability distribution errors via numerical examples.
We present a data-driven model predictive control (MPC) scheme for chance-constrained Markov jump systems with unknown switching probabilities. Using samples of the underlying Markov chain, ambiguity sets of transition probabilities are estimated which include the true conditional probability distributions with high probability. These sets are updated online and used to formulate a time-varying, risk-averse optimal control problem. We prove recursive feasibility of the resulting MPC scheme and show that the original chance constraints remain satisfied at every time step. Furthermore, we show that under sufficient decrease of the confidence levels, the resulting MPC scheme renders the closed-loop system mean-square stable with respect to the true-but-unknown distributions, while remaining less conservative than a fully robust approach. Finally, we show that the data-driven value function converges to its nominal counterpart as the sample size grows to infinity. We illustrate our approach on a numerical example.
We present a data-driven model predictive control scheme for chance-constrained Markovian switching systems with unknown switching probabilities. Using samples of the underlying Markov chain, ambiguity sets of transition probabilities are estimated which include the true conditional probability distributions with high probability. These sets are updated online and used to formulate a time-varying, risk-averse optimal control problem. We prove recursive feasibility of the resulting MPC scheme and show that the original chance constraints remain satisfied at every time step. Furthermore, we show that under sufficient decrease of the confidence levels, the resulting MPC scheme renders the closed-loop system mean-square stable with respect to the true-but-unknown distributions, while remaining less conservative than a fully robust approach.
Stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) has been a promising solution to complex control problems under uncertain disturbances. However, traditional SMPC approaches either require exact knowledge of probabilistic distributions, or rely on massive scenarios that are generated to represent uncertainties. In this paper, a novel scenario-based SMPC approach is proposed by actively learning a data-driven uncertainty set from available data with machine learning techniques. A systematical procedure is then proposed to further calibrate the uncertainty set, which gives appropriate probabilistic guarantee. The resulting data-driven uncertainty set is more compact than traditional norm-based sets, and can help reducing conservatism of control actions. Meanwhile, the proposed method requires less data samples than traditional scenario-based SMPC approaches, thereby enhancing the practicability of SMPC. Finally the optimal control problem is cast as a single-stage robust optimization problem, which can be solved efficiently by deriving the robust counterpart problem. The feasibility and stability issue is also discussed in detail. The efficacy of the proposed approach is demonstrated through a two-mass-spring system and a building energy control problem under uncertain disturbances.
We consider the problem of designing control laws for stochastic jump linear systems where the disturbances are drawn randomly from a finite sample space according to an unknown distribution, which is estimated from a finite sample of i.i.d. observations. We adopt a distributionally robust approach to compute a mean-square stabilizing feedback gain with a given probability. The larger the sample size, the less conservative the controller, yet our methodology gives stability guarantees with high probability, for any number of samples. Using tools from statistical learning theory, we estimate confidence regions for the unknown probability distributions (ambiguity sets) which have the shape of total variation balls centered around the empirical distribution. We use these confidence regions in the design of appropriate distributionally robust controllers and show that the associated stability conditions can be cast as a tractable linear matrix inequality (LMI) by using conjugate duality. The resulting design procedure scales gracefully with the size of the probability space and the system dimensions. Through a numerical example, we illustrate the superior sample complexity of the proposed methodology over the stochastic approach.