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Register a new userRegularizing towards Causal Invariance: Linear Models with Proxies
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We propose a method for learning linear models whose predictive performance is robust to causal interventions on unobserved variables, when noisy proxies of those variables are available. Our approach takes the form of a regularization term that trades off between in-distribution performance and robustness to interventions. Under the assumption of a linear structural causal model, we show that a single proxy can be used to create estimators that are prediction optimal under interventions of bounded strength. This strength depends on the magnitude of the measurement noise in the proxy, which is, in general, not identifiable. In the case of two proxy variables, we propose a modified estimator that is prediction optimal under interventions up to a known strength. We further show how to extend these estimators to scenarios where additional information about the test time intervention is available during training. We evaluate our theoretical findings in synthetic experiments and using real data of hourly pollution levels across several cities in China.
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In many machine learning problems the output should not depend on the order of the input. Such permutation invariant functions have been studied extensively recently. Here we argue that temporal architectures such as RNNs are highly relevant for such problems, despite the inherent dependence of RNNs on order. We show that RNNs can be regularized towards permutation invariance, and that this can result in compact models, as compared to non-recurrent architectures. We implement this idea via a novel form of stochastic regularization. Existing solutions mostly suggest restricting the learning problem to hypothesis classes which are permutation invariant by design. Our approach of enforcing permutation invariance via regularization gives rise to models which are textit{semi permutation invariant} (e.g. invariant to some permutations and not to others). We show that our method outperforms other permutation invariant approaches on synthetic and real world datasets.
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Recommending the best course of action for an individual is a major application of individual-level causal effect estimation. This application is often needed in safety-critical domains such as healthcare, where estimating and communicating uncertainty to decision-makers is crucial. We introduce a practical approach for integrating uncertainty estimation into a class of state-of-the-art neural network methods used for individual-level causal estimates. We show that our methods enable us to deal gracefully with situations of no-overlap, common in high-dimensional data, where standard applications of causal effect approaches fail. Further, our methods allow us to handle covariate shift, where test distribution differs to train distribution, common when systems are deployed in practice. We show that when such a covariate shift occurs, correctly modeling uncertainty can keep us from giving overconfident and potentially harmful recommendations. We demonstrate our methodology with a range of state-of-the-art models. Under both covariate shift and lack of overlap, our uncertainty-equipped methods can alert decisions makers when predictions are not to be trusted while outperforming their uncertainty-oblivious counterparts.
Studies on generalization performance of machine learning algorithms under the scope of information theory suggest that compressed representations can guarantee good generalization, inspiring many compression-based regularization methods. In this paper, we introduce REVE, a new regularization scheme. Noting that compressing the representation can be sub-optimal, our first contribution is to identify a variable that is directly responsible for the final prediction. Our method aims at compressing the class conditioned entropy of this latter variable. Second, we introduce a variational upper bound on this conditional entropy term. Finally, we propose a scheme to instantiate a tractable loss that is integrated within the training procedure of the neural network and demonstrate its efficiency on different neural networks and datasets.
In many scientific fields, such as economics and neuroscience, we are often faced with nonstationary time series, and concerned with both finding causal relations and forecasting the values of variables of interest, both of which are particularly challenging in such nonstationary environments. In this paper, we study causal discovery and forecasting for nonstationary time series. By exploiting a particular type of state-space model to represent the processes, we show that nonstationarity helps to identify causal structure and that forecasting naturally benefits from learned causal knowledge. Specifically, we allow changes in both causal strengths and noise variances in the nonlinear state-space models, which, interestingly, renders both the causal structure and model parameters identifiable. Given the causal model, we treat forecasting as a problem in Bayesian inference in the causal model, which exploits the time-varying property of the data and adapts to new observations in a principled manner. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world data sets demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods.
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