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Machine learning has shown much promise in helping improve the quality of medical, legal, and economic decision-making. In these applications, machine learning models must satisfy two important criteria: (i) they must be causal, since the goal is typically to predict individual treatment effects, and (ii) they must be interpretable, so that human decision makers can validate and trust the model predictions. There has recently been much progress along each direction independently, yet the state-of-the-art approaches are fundamentally incompatible. We propose a framework for learning causal interpretable models---from observational data---that can be used to predict individual treatment effects. Our framework can be used with any algorithm for learning interpretable models. Furthermore, we prove an error bound on the treatment effects predicted by our model. Finally, in an experiment on real-world data, we show that the models trained using our framework significantly outperform a number of baselines.
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This paper presents a computational framework that generates ensemble predictive mechanics models with uncertainty quantification (UQ). We first develop a causal discovery algorithm to infer causal relations among time-history data measured during each representative volume element (RVE) simulation through a directed acyclic graph (DAG). With multiple plausible sets of causal relationships estimated from multiple RVE simulations, the predictions are propagated in the derived causal graph while using a deep neural network equipped with dropout layers as a Bayesian approximation for uncertainty quantification. We select two representative numerical examples (traction-separation laws for frictional interfaces, elastoplasticity models for granular assembles) to examine the accuracy and robustness of the proposed causal discovery method for the common material law predictions in civil engineering applications.
In this paper, we present a Bayesian view on model-based reinforcement learning. We use expert knowledge to impose structure on the transition model and present an efficient learning scheme based on variational inference. This scheme is applied to a heteroskedastic and bimodal benchmark problem on which we compare our results to NFQ and show how our approach yields human-interpretable insight about the underlying dynamics while also increasing data-efficiency.
In the dictionary learning (or sparse coding) problem, we are given a collection of signals (vectors in $mathbb{R}^d$), and the goal is to find a basis in which the signals have a sparse (approximate) representation. The problem has received a lot of attention in signal processing, learning, and theoretical computer science. The problem is formalized as factorizing a matrix $X (d times n)$ (whose columns are the signals) as $X = AY$, where $A$ has a prescribed number $m$ of columns (typically $m ll n$), and $Y$ has columns that are $k$-sparse (typically $k ll d$). Most of the known theoretical results involve assuming that the columns of the unknown $A$ have certain incoherence properties, and that the coefficient matrix $Y$ has random (or partly random) structure. The goal of our work is to understand what can be said in the absence of such assumptions. Can we still find $A$ and $Y$ such that $X approx AY$? We show that this is possible, if we allow violating the bounds on $m$ and $k$ by appropriate factors that depend on $k$ and the desired approximation. Our results rely on an algorithm for what we call the threshold correlation problem, which turns out to be related to hypercontractive norms of matrices. We also show that our algorithmic ideas apply to a setting in which some of the columns of $X$ are outliers, thus giving similar guarantees even in this challenging setting.
Federated learning (FL) has emerged as a prominent distributed learning paradigm. FL entails some pressing needs for developing novel parameter estimation approaches with theoretical guarantees of convergence, which are also communication efficient, differentially private and Byzantine resilient in the heterogeneous data distribution settings. Quantization-based SGD solvers have been widely adopted in FL and the recently proposed SIGNSGD with majority vote shows a promising direction. However, no existing methods enjoy all the aforementioned properties. In this paper, we propose an intuitively-simple yet theoretically-sound method based on SIGNSGD to bridge the gap. We present Stochastic-Sign SGD which utilizes novel stochastic-sign based gradient compressors enabling the aforementioned properties in a unified framework. We also present an error-feedback variant of the proposed Stochastic-Sign SGD which further improves the learning performance in FL. We test the proposed method with extensive experiments using deep neural networks on the MNIST dataset and the CIFAR-10 dataset. The experimental results corroborate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
We propose a method for learning linear models whose predictive performance is robust to causal interventions on unobserved variables, when noisy proxies of those variables are available. Our approach takes the form of a regularization term that trades off between in-distribution performance and robustness to interventions. Under the assumption of a linear structural causal model, we show that a single proxy can be used to create estimators that are prediction optimal under interventions of bounded strength. This strength depends on the magnitude of the measurement noise in the proxy, which is, in general, not identifiable. In the case of two proxy variables, we propose a modified estimator that is prediction optimal under interventions up to a known strength. We further show how to extend these estimators to scenarios where additional information about the test time intervention is available during training. We evaluate our theoretical findings in synthetic experiments and using real data of hourly pollution levels across several cities in China.
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