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Register a new userIdentifying Causal-Effect Inference Failure with Uncertainty-Aware Models
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Recommending the best course of action for an individual is a major application of individual-level causal effect estimation. This application is often needed in safety-critical domains such as healthcare, where estimating and communicating uncertainty to decision-makers is crucial. We introduce a practical approach for integrating uncertainty estimation into a class of state-of-the-art neural network methods used for individual-level causal estimates. We show that our methods enable us to deal gracefully with situations of no-overlap, common in high-dimensional data, where standard applications of causal effect approaches fail. Further, our methods allow us to handle covariate shift, where test distribution differs to train distribution, common when systems are deployed in practice. We show that when such a covariate shift occurs, correctly modeling uncertainty can keep us from giving overconfident and potentially harmful recommendations. We demonstrate our methodology with a range of state-of-the-art models. Under both covariate shift and lack of overlap, our uncertainty-equipped methods can alert decisions makers when predictions are not to be trusted while outperforming their uncertainty-oblivious counterparts.
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Recurrent neural network based solutions are increasingly being used in the analysis of longitudinal Electronic Health Record data. However, most works focus on prediction accuracy and neglect prediction uncertainty. We propose Deep Kernel Accelerated Failure Time models for the time-to-event prediction task, enabling uncertainty-awareness of the prediction by a pipeline of a recurrent neural network and a sparse Gaussian Process. Furthermore, a deep metric learning based pre-training step is adapted to enhance the proposed model. Our model shows better point estimate performance than recurrent neural network based baselines in experiments on two real-world datasets. More importantly, the predictive variance from our model can be used to quantify the uncertainty estimates of the time-to-event prediction: Our model delivers better performance when it is more confident in its prediction. Compared to related methods, such as Monte Carlo Dropout, our model offers better uncertainty estimates by leveraging an analytical solution and is more computationally efficient.
Classical causal and statistical inference methods typically assume the observed data consists of independent realizations. However, in many applications this assumption is inappropriate due to a network of dependences between units in the data. Methods for estimating causal effects have been developed in the setting where the structure of dependence between units is known exactly, but in practice there is often substantial uncertainty about the precise network structure. This is true, for example, in trial data drawn from vulnerable communities where social ties are difficult to query directly. In this paper we combine techniques from the structure learning and interference literatures in causal inference, proposing a general method for estimating causal effects under data dependence when the structure of this dependence is not known a priori. We demonstrate the utility of our method on synthetic datasets which exhibit network dependence.
Estimating individual and average treatment effects from observational data is an important problem in many domains such as healthcare and e-commerce. In this paper, we advocate balance regularization of multi-head neural network architectures. Our work is motivated by representation learning techniques to reduce differences between treated and untreated distributions that potentially arise due to confounding factors. We further regularize the model by encouraging it to predict control outcomes for individuals in the treatment group that are similar to control outcomes in the control group. We empirically study the bias-variance trade-off between different weightings of the regularizers, as well as between inductive and transductive inference.
Machine learning has shown much promise in helping improve the quality of medical, legal, and economic decision-making. In these applications, machine learning models must satisfy two important criteria: (i) they must be causal, since the goal is typically to predict individual treatment effects, and (ii) they must be interpretable, so that human decision makers can validate and trust the model predictions. There has recently been much progress along each direction independently, yet the state-of-the-art approaches are fundamentally incompatible. We propose a framework for learning causal interpretable models---from observational data---that can be used to predict individual treatment effects. Our framework can be used with any algorithm for learning interpretable models. Furthermore, we prove an error bound on the treatment effects predicted by our model. Finally, in an experiment on real-world data, we show that the models trained using our framework significantly outperform a number of baselines.
This paper proposes a dual-supervised uncertainty inference (DS-UI) framework for improving Bayesian estimation-based uncertainty inference (UI) in deep neural network (DNN)-based image recognition. In the DS-UI, we combine the classifier of a DNN, i.e., the last fully-connected (FC) layer, with a mixture of Gaussian mixture models (MoGMM) to obtain an MoGMM-FC layer. Unlike existing UI methods for DNNs, which only calculate the means or modes of the DNN outputs distributions, the proposed MoGMM-FC layer acts as a probabilistic interpreter for the features that are inputs of the classifier to directly calculate the probability density of them for the DS-UI. In addition, we propose a dual-supervised stochastic gradient-based variational Bayes (DS-SGVB) algorithm for the MoGMM-FC layer optimization. Unlike conventional SGVB and optimization algorithms in other UI methods, the DS-SGVB not only models the samples in the specific class for each Gaussian mixture model (GMM) in the MoGMM, but also considers the negative samples from other classes for the GMM to reduce the intra-class distances and enlarge the inter-class margins simultaneously for enhancing the learning ability of the MoGMM-FC layer in the DS-UI. Experimental results show the DS-UI outperforms the state-of-the-art UI methods in misclassification detection. We further evaluate the DS-UI in open-set out-of-domain/-distribution detection and find statistically significant improvements. Visualizations of the feature spaces demonstrate the superiority of the DS-UI.
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