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Register a new userSequential change-point detection for mutually exciting point processes over networks
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We present a new CUSUM procedure for sequentially detecting change-point in the self and mutual exciting processes, a.k.a. Hawkes networks using discrete events data. Hawkes networks have become a popular model for statistics and machine learning due to their capability in modeling irregularly observed data where the timing between events carries a lot of information. The problem of detecting abrupt changes in Hawkes networks arises from various applications, including neuronal imaging, sensor network, and social network monitoring. Despite this, there has not been a computationally and memory-efficient online algorithm for detecting such changes from sequential data. We present an efficient online recursive implementation of the CUSUM statistic for Hawkes processes, both decentralized and memory-efficient, and establish the theoretical properties of this new CUSUM procedure. We then show that the proposed CUSUM method achieves better performance than existing methods, including the Shewhart procedure based on count data, the generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) in the existing literature, and the standard score statistic. We demonstrate this via a simulated example and an application to population code change-detection in neuronal networks.
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We introduce GLR-klUCB, a novel algorithm for the piecewise iid non-stationary bandit problem with bounded rewards. This algorithm combines an efficient bandit algorithm, kl-UCB, with an efficient, parameter-free, changepoint detector, the Bernoulli Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test, for which we provide new theoretical guarantees of independent interest. Unlike previous non-stationary bandit algorithms using a change-point detector, GLR-klUCB does not need to be calibrated based on prior knowledge on the arms means. We prove that this algorithm can attain a $O(sqrt{TA Upsilon_Tlog(T)})$ regret in $T$ rounds on some easy instances, where A is the number of arms and $Upsilon_T$ the number of change-points, without prior knowledge of $Upsilon_T$. In contrast with recently proposed algorithms that are agnostic to $Upsilon_T$, we perform a numerical study showing that GLR-klUCB is also very efficient in practice, beyond easy instances.
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From a sequence of similarity networks, with edges representing certain similarity measures between nodes, we are interested in detecting a change-point which changes the statistical property of the networks. After the change, a subset of anomalous nodes which compares dissimilarly with the normal nodes. We study a simple sequential change detection procedure based on node-wise average similarity measures, and study its theoretical property. Simulation and real-data examples demonstrate such a simply stopping procedure has reasonably good performance. We further discuss the faulty sensor isolation (estimating anomalous nodes) using community detection.
Structural changes occur in dynamic networks quite frequently and its detection is an important question in many situations such as fraud detection or cybersecurity. Real-life networks are often incompletely observed due to individual non-response or network size. In the present paper we consider the problem of change-point detection at a temporal sequence of partially observed networks. The goal is to test whether there is a change in the network parameters. Our approach is based on the Matrix CUSUM test statistic and allows growing size of networks. We show that the proposed test is minimax optimal and robust to missing links. We also demonstrate the good behavior of our approach in practice through simulation study and a real-data application.
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