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Register a new userSAINT+: Integrating Temporal Features for EdNet Correctness Prediction
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Byungsoo Kim
Publication date
2020
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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We propose SAINT+, a successor of SAINT which is a Transformer based knowledge tracing model that separately processes exercise information and student response information. Following the architecture of SAINT, SAINT+ has an encoder-decoder structure where the encoder applies self-attention layers to a stream of exercise embeddings, and the decoder alternately applies self-attention layers and encoder-decoder attention layers to streams of response embeddings and encoder output. Moreover, SAINT+ incorporates two temporal feature embeddings into the response embeddings: elapsed time, the time taken for a student to answer, and lag time, the time interval between adjacent learning activities. We empirically evaluate the effectiveness of SAINT+ on EdNet, the largest publicly available benchmark dataset in the education domain. Experimental results show that SAINT+ achieves state-of-the-art performance in knowledge tracing with an improvement of 1.25% in area under receiver operating characteristic curve compared to SAINT, the current state-of-the-art model in EdNet dataset.
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Flu circulates all over the world. The worldwide infection places a substantial burden on peoples health every year. Regardless of the characteristic of the worldwide circulation of flu, most previous studies focused on regional prediction of flu outbreaks. The methodology of considering the spatio-temporal correlation could help forecast flu outbreaks more precisely. Furthermore, forecasting a long-term flu outbreak, and understanding flu infection trends more accurately could help hospitals, clinics, and pharmaceutical companies to better prepare for annual flu outbreaks. Predicting a sequence of values in the future, namely, the multi-step prediction of flu outbreaks should cause concern. Therefore, we highlight the importance of developing spatio-temporal methodologies to perform multi-step prediction of worldwide flu outbreaks. We compared the MAPEs of SVM, RF, LSTM models of predicting flu data of the 1-4 weeks ahead with and without other countries flu data. We found the LSTM models achieved the lowest MAPEs in most cases. As for countries in the Southern hemisphere, the MAPEs of predicting flu data with other countries are higher than those of predicting without other countries. For countries in the Northern hemisphere, the MAPEs of predicting flu data of the 2-4 weeks ahead with other countries are lower than those of predicting without other countries; and the MAPEs of predicting flu data of the 1-weeks ahead with other countries are higher than those of predicting without other countries, except for the UK. In this study, we performed the spatio-temporal multi-step prediction of influenza outbreaks. The methodology considering the spatio-temporal features improves the multi-step prediction of flu outbreaks.
The needs for precisely estimating a students academic performance have been emphasized with an increasing amount of attention paid to Intelligent Tutoring System (ITS). However, since labels for academic performance, such as test scores, are collected from outside of ITS, obtaining the labels is costly, leading to label-scarcity problem which brings challenge in taking machine learning approaches for academic performance prediction. To this end, inspired by the recent advancement of pre-training method in natural language processing community, we propose DPA, a transfer learning framework with Discriminative Pre-training tasks for Academic performance prediction. DPA pre-trains two models, a generator and a discriminator, and fine-tunes the discriminator on academic performance prediction. In DPAs pre-training phase, a sequence of interactions where some tokens are masked is provided to the generator which is trained to reconstruct the original sequence. Then, the discriminator takes an interaction sequence where the masked tokens are replaced by the generators outputs, and is trained to predict the originalities of all tokens in the sequence. Compared to the previous state-of-the-art generative pre-training method, DPA is more sample efficient, leading to fast convergence to lower academic performance prediction error. We conduct extensive experimental studies on a real-world dataset obtained from a multi-platform ITS application and show that DPA outperforms the previous state-of-the-art generative pre-training method with a reduction of 4.05% in mean absolute error and more robust to increased label-scarcity.
Clinical trials are crucial for drug development but are time consuming, expensive, and often burdensome on patients. More importantly, clinical trials face uncertain outcomes due to issues with efficacy, safety, or problems with patient recruitment. If we were better at predicting the results of clinical trials, we could avoid having to run trials that will inevitably fail more resources could be devoted to trials that are likely to succeed. In this paper, we propose Hierarchical INteraction Network (HINT) for more general, clinical trial outcome predictions for all diseases based on a comprehensive and diverse set of web data including molecule information of the drugs, target disease information, trial protocol and biomedical knowledge. HINT first encode these multi-modal data into latent embeddings, where an imputation module is designed to handle missing data. Next, these embeddings will be fed into the knowledge embedding module to generate knowledge embeddings that are pretrained using external knowledge on pharmaco-kinetic properties and trial risk from the web. Then the interaction graph module will connect all the embedding via domain knowledge to fully capture various trial components and their complex relations as well as their influences on trial outcomes. Finally, HINT learns a dynamic attentive graph neural network to predict trial outcome. Comprehensive experimental results show that HINT achieves strong predictive performance, obtaining 0.772, 0.607, 0.623, 0.703 on PR-AUC for Phase I, II, III, and indication outcome prediction, respectively. It also consistently outperforms the best baseline method by up to 12.4% on PR-AUC.
An effective understanding of the contextual environment and accurate motion forecasting of surrounding agents is crucial for the development of autonomous vehicles and social mobile robots. This task is challenging since the behavior of an autonomous agent is not only affected by its own intention, but also by the static environment and surrounding dynamically interacting agents. Previous works focused on utilizing the spatial and temporal information in time domain while not sufficiently taking advantage of the cues in frequency domain. To this end, we propose a Spectral Temporal Graph Neural Network (SpecTGNN), which can capture inter-agent correlations and temporal dependency simultaneously in frequency domain in addition to time domain. SpecTGNN operates on both an agent graph with dynamic state information and an environment graph with the features extracted from context images in two streams. The model integrates graph Fourier transform, spectral graph convolution and temporal gated convolution to encode history information and forecast future trajectories. Moreover, we incorporate a multi-head spatio-temporal attention mechanism to mitigate the effect of error propagation in a long time horizon. We demonstrate the performance of SpecTGNN on two public trajectory prediction benchmark datasets, which achieves state-of-the-art performance in terms of prediction accuracy.
Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction is critical for industrial recommender systems, where most deep CTR models follow an Embedding & Feature Interaction paradigm. However, the majority of methods focus on designing network architectures to better capture feature interactions while the feature embedding, especially for numerical features, has been overlooked. Existing approaches for numerical features are difficult to capture informative knowledge because of the low capacity or hard discretization based on the offline expertise feature engineering. In this paper, we propose a novel embedding learning framework for numerical features in CTR prediction (AutoDis) with high model capacity, end-to-end training and unique representation properties preserved. AutoDis consists of three core components: meta-embeddings, automatic discretization and aggregation. Specifically, we propose meta-embeddings for each numerical field to learn global knowledge from the perspective of field with a manageable number of parameters. Then the differentiable automatic discretization performs soft discretization and captures the correlations between the numerical features and meta-embeddings. Finally, distinctive and informative embeddings are learned via an aggregation function. Comprehensive experiments on two public and one industrial datasets are conducted to validate the effectiveness of AutoDis. Moreover, AutoDis has been deployed onto a mainstream advertising platform, where online A/B test demonstrates the improvement over the base model by 2.1% and 2.7% in terms of CTR and eCPM, respectively. In addition, the code of our framework is publicly available in MindSpore(https://gitee.com/mindspore/mindspore/tree/master/model_zoo/research/recommend/autodis).
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