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Register a new userHINT: Hierarchical Interaction Network for Trial Outcome Prediction Leveraging Web Data
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Tianfan Fu
Publication date
2021
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Clinical trials are crucial for drug development but are time consuming, expensive, and often burdensome on patients. More importantly, clinical trials face uncertain outcomes due to issues with efficacy, safety, or problems with patient recruitment. If we were better at predicting the results of clinical trials, we could avoid having to run trials that will inevitably fail more resources could be devoted to trials that are likely to succeed. In this paper, we propose Hierarchical INteraction Network (HINT) for more general, clinical trial outcome predictions for all diseases based on a comprehensive and diverse set of web data including molecule information of the drugs, target disease information, trial protocol and biomedical knowledge. HINT first encode these multi-modal data into latent embeddings, where an imputation module is designed to handle missing data. Next, these embeddings will be fed into the knowledge embedding module to generate knowledge embeddings that are pretrained using external knowledge on pharmaco-kinetic properties and trial risk from the web. Then the interaction graph module will connect all the embedding via domain knowledge to fully capture various trial components and their complex relations as well as their influences on trial outcomes. Finally, HINT learns a dynamic attentive graph neural network to predict trial outcome. Comprehensive experimental results show that HINT achieves strong predictive performance, obtaining 0.772, 0.607, 0.623, 0.703 on PR-AUC for Phase I, II, III, and indication outcome prediction, respectively. It also consistently outperforms the best baseline method by up to 12.4% on PR-AUC.
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Many researchers have studied student academic performance in supervised and unsupervised learning using numerous data mining techniques. Neural networks often need a greater collection of observations to achieve enough predictive ability. Due to the increase in the rate of poor graduates, it is necessary to design a system that helps to reduce this menace as well as reduce the incidence of students having to repeat due to poor performance or having to drop out of school altogether in the middle of the pursuit of their career. It is therefore necessary to study each one as well as their advantages and disadvantages, so as to determine which is more efficient in and in what case one should be preferred over the other. The study aims to develop a system to predict student performance with Artificial Neutral Network using the student demographic traits so as to assist the university in selecting candidates (students) with a high prediction of success for admission using previous academic records of students granted admissions which will eventually lead to quality graduates of the institution. The model was developed based on certain selected variables as the input. It achieved an accuracy of over 92.3 percent, showing Artificial Neural Network potential effectiveness as a predictive tool and a selection criterion for candidates seeking admission to a university.
Many recent invertible neural architectures are based on coupling block designs where variables are divided in two subsets which serve as inputs of an easily invertible (usually affine) triangular transformation. While such a transformation is invertible, its Jacobian is very sparse and thus may lack expressiveness. This work presents a simple remedy by noting that subdivision and (affine) coupling can be repeated recursively within the resulting subsets, leading to an efficiently invertible block with dense, triangular Jacobian. By formulating our recursive coupling scheme via a hierarchical architecture, HINT allows sampling from a joint distribution p(y,x) and the corresponding posterior p(x|y) using a single invertible network. We evaluate our method on some standard data sets and benchmark its full power for density estimation and Bayesian inference on a novel data set of 2D shapes in Fourier parameterization, which enables consistent visualization of samples for different dimensionalities.
Recently, conversational recommender system (CRS) has become an emerging and practical research topic. Most of the existing CRS methods focus on learning effective preference representations for users from conversation data alone. While, we take a new perspective to leverage historical interaction data for improving CRS. For this purpose, we propose a novel pre-training approach to integrating both item-based preference sequence (from historical interaction data) and attribute-based preference sequence (from conversation data) via pre-training methods. We carefully design two pre-training tasks to enhance information fusion between item- and attribute-based preference. To improve the learning performance, we further develop an effective negative sample generator which can produce high-quality negative samples. Experiment results on two real-world datasets have demonstrated the effectiveness of our approach for improving CRS.
Statistics on migration flows are often derived from census data, which suffer from intrinsic limitations, including costs and infrequent sampling. When censuses are used, there is typically a time gap - up to a few years - between the data collection process and the computation and publication of relevant statistics. This gap is a significant drawback for the analysis of a phenomenon that is continuously and rapidly changing. Alternative data sources, such as surveys and field observations, also suffer from reliability, costs, and scale limitations. The ubiquity of mobile phones enables an accurate and efficient collection of up-to-date data related to migration. Indeed, passively collected data by the mobile network infrastructure via aggregated, pseudonymized Call Detail Records (CDRs) is of great value to understand human migrations. Through the analysis of mobile phone data, we can shed light on the mobility patterns of migrants, detect spontaneous settlements and understand the daily habits, levels of integration, and human connections of such vulnerable social groups. This Chapter discusses the importance of leveraging mobile phone data as an alternative data source to gather precious and previously unavailable insights on various aspects of migration. Also, we highlight pending challenges that would need to be addressed before we can effectively benefit from the availability of mobile phone data to help make better decisions that would ultimately improve millions of peoples lives.
We propose SAINT+, a successor of SAINT which is a Transformer based knowledge tracing model that separately processes exercise information and student response information. Following the architecture of SAINT, SAINT+ has an encoder-decoder structure where the encoder applies self-attention layers to a stream of exercise embeddings, and the decoder alternately applies self-attention layers and encoder-decoder attention layers to streams of response embeddings and encoder output. Moreover, SAINT+ incorporates two temporal feature embeddings into the response embeddings: elapsed time, the time taken for a student to answer, and lag time, the time interval between adjacent learning activities. We empirically evaluate the effectiveness of SAINT+ on EdNet, the largest publicly available benchmark dataset in the education domain. Experimental results show that SAINT+ achieves state-of-the-art performance in knowledge tracing with an improvement of 1.25% in area under receiver operating characteristic curve compared to SAINT, the current state-of-the-art model in EdNet dataset.
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