Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userUnderstanding Gambling Behavior and Risk Attitudes Using Cryptocurrency-based Casino Blockchain Data
60
0
0.0
(
0
)
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
The statistical concept of Gamblers Ruin suggests that gambling has a large amount of risk. Nevertheless, gambling at casinos and gambling on the Internet are both hugely popular activities. In recent years, both prospect theory and lab-controlled experiments have been used to improve our understanding of risk attitudes associated with gambling. Despite theoretical progress, collecting real-life gambling data, which is essential to validate predictions and experimental findings, remains a challenge. To address this issue, we collect publicly available betting data from a emph{DApp} (decentralized application) on the Ethereum Blockchain, which instantly publishes the outcome of every single bet (consisting of each bets timestamp, wager, probability of winning, userID, and profit). This online casino is a simple dice game that allows gamblers to tune their own winning probabilities. Thus the dataset is well suited for studying gambling strategies and the complex dynamic of risk attitudes involved in betting decisions. We analyze the dataset through the lens of current probability-theoretic models and discover empirical examples of gambling systems. Our results shed light on understanding the role of risk preferences in human financial behavior and decision-makings beyond gambling.
rate research
Read More
The decentralization, redundancy, and pseudo-anonymity features have made permission-less public blockchain platforms attractive for adoption as technology platforms for cryptocurrencies. However, such adoption has enabled cybercriminals to exploit vulnerabilities in blockchain platforms and target the users through social engineering to carry out malicious activities. Most of the state-of-the-art techniques for detecting malicious actors depend on the transactional behavior of individual wallet addresses but do not analyze the money trails. We propose a heuristics-based approach that adds new features associated with money trails to analyze and find suspicious activities in cryptocurrency blockchains. Here, we focus only on the cyclic behavior and identify hidden patterns present in the temporal transactions graphs in a blockchain. We demonstrate our methods on the transaction data of the Ethereum blockchain. We find that malicious activities (such as Gambling, Phishing, and Money Laundering) have different cyclic patterns in Ethereum. We also identify two suspicious temporal cyclic path-based transfers in Ethereum. Our techniques may apply to other cryptocurrency blockchains with appropriate modifications adapted to the nature of the crypto-currency under investigation.
Many blockchain-based cryptocurrencies provide users with online blockchain explorers for viewing online transaction data. However, traditional blockchain explorers mostly present transaction information in textual and tabular forms. Such forms make understanding cryptocurrency transaction mechanisms difficult for novice users (NUsers). They are also insufficiently informative for experienced users (EUsers) to recognize advanced transaction information. This study introduces a new online cryptocurrency transaction data viewing tool called SilkViser. Guided by detailed scenario and requirement analyses, we create a series of appreciating visualization designs, such as paper ledger-inspired block and blockchain visualizations and ancient copper coin-inspired transaction visualizations, to help users understand cryptocurrency transaction mechanisms and recognize advanced transaction information. We also provide a set of lightweight interactions to facilitate easy and free data exploration. Moreover, a controlled user study is conducted to quantitatively evaluate the usability and effectiveness of SilkViser. Results indicate that SilkViser can satisfy the requirements of NUsers and EUsers. Our visualization designs can compensate for the inexperience of NUsers in data viewing and attract potential users to participate in cryptocurrency transactions.
The spread of pandemics such as COVID-19 is strongly linked to human activities. The objective of this paper is to specify and examine early indicators of disease spread risk in cities during the initial stages of outbreak based on patterns of human activities obtained from digital trace data. In this study, the Venables distance (D_v), and the activity density (D_a) are used to quantify and evaluate human activities for 193 US counties, whose cumulative number of confirmed cases was greater than 100 as of March 31, 2020. Venables distance provides a measure of the agglomeration of the level of human activities based on the average distance of human activities across a city or a county (less distance could lead to a greater contact risk). Activity density provides a measure of level of overall activity level in a county or a city (more activity could lead to a greater risk). Accordingly, Pearson correlation analysis is used to examine the relationship between the two human activity indicators and the basic reproduction number in the following weeks. The results show statistically significant correlations between the indicators of human activities and the basic reproduction number in all counties, as well as a significant leader-follower relationship (time lag) between them. The results also show one to two weeks lag between the change in activity indicators and the decrease in the basic reproduction number. This result implies that the human activity indicators provide effective early indicators for the spread risk of the pandemic during the early stages of the outbreak. Hence, the results could be used by the authorities to proactively assess the risk of disease spread by monitoring the daily Venables distance and activity density in a proactive manner.
We implement momentum strategies using reward-risk measures as ranking criteria based on classical tempered stable distribution. Performances and risk characteristics for the alternative portfolios are obtained in various asset classes and markets. The reward-risk momentum strategies with lower volatility levels outperform the traditional momentum strategy regardless of asset class and market. Additionally, the alternative portfolios are not only less riskier in risk measures such as VaR, CVaR and maximum drawdown but also characterized by thinner downside tails. Similar patterns in performance and risk profile are also found at the level of each ranking basket in the reward-risk portfolios. Higher factor-neutral returns achieved by the reward-risk momentum strategies are statistically significant and large portions of the performances are not explained by the Carhart four-factor model.
The risk and return profiles of a broad class of dynamic trading strategies, including pairs trading and other statistical arbitrage strategies, may be characterized in terms of excursions of the market price of a portfolio away from a reference level. We propose a mathematical framework for the risk analysis of such strategies, based on a description in terms of price excursions, first in a pathwise setting, without probabilistic assumptions, then in a Markovian setting. We introduce the notion of delta-excursion, defined as a path which deviates by delta from a reference level before returning to this level. We show that every continuous path has a unique decomposition into delta-excursions, which is useful for the scenario analysis of dynamic trading strategies, leading to simple expressions for the number of trades, realized profit, maximum loss and drawdown. As delta is decreased to zero, properties of this decomposition relate to the local time of the path. When the underlying asset follows a Markov process, we combine these results with Itos excursion theory to obtain a tractable decomposition of the process as a concatenation of independent delta-excursions, whose distribution is described in terms of Itos excursion measure. We provide analytical results for linear diffusions and give new examples of stochastic processes for flexible and tractable modeling of excursions. Finally, we describe a non-parametric scenario simulation method for generating paths whose excursion properties match those observed in empirical data.
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
