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Register a new userBalance Regularized Neural Network Models for Causal Effect Estimation
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Estimating individual and average treatment effects from observational data is an important problem in many domains such as healthcare and e-commerce. In this paper, we advocate balance regularization of multi-head neural network architectures. Our work is motivated by representation learning techniques to reduce differences between treated and untreated distributions that potentially arise due to confounding factors. We further regularize the model by encouraging it to predict control outcomes for individuals in the treatment group that are similar to control outcomes in the control group. We empirically study the bias-variance trade-off between different weightings of the regularizers, as well as between inductive and transductive inference.
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We address the estimation of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) when treatments are graph-structured (e.g., molecular graphs of drugs). Given a weak condition on the effect, we propose a plug-in estimator that decomposes CATE estimation into separate, simpler optimization problems. Our estimator (a) isolates the causal estimands (reducing regularization bias), and (b) allows one to plug in arbitrary models for learning. In experiments with small-world and molecular graphs, we show that our approach outperforms prior approaches and is robust to varying selection biases. Our implementation is online.
Causality can be described in terms of a structural causal model (SCM) that carries information on the variables of interest and their mechanistic relations. For most processes of interest the underlying SCM will only be partially observable, thus causal inference tries to leverage any exposed information. Graph neural networks (GNN) as universal approximators on structured input pose a viable candidate for causal learning, suggesting a tighter integration with SCM. To this effect we present a theoretical analysis from first principles that establishes a novel connection between GNN and SCM while providing an extended view on general neural-causal models. We then establish a new model class for GNN-based causal inference that is necessary and sufficient for causal effect identification. Our empirical illustration on simulations and standard benchmarks validate our theoretical proofs.
Recommending the best course of action for an individual is a major application of individual-level causal effect estimation. This application is often needed in safety-critical domains such as healthcare, where estimating and communicating uncertainty to decision-makers is crucial. We introduce a practical approach for integrating uncertainty estimation into a class of state-of-the-art neural network methods used for individual-level causal estimates. We show that our methods enable us to deal gracefully with situations of no-overlap, common in high-dimensional data, where standard applications of causal effect approaches fail. Further, our methods allow us to handle covariate shift, where test distribution differs to train distribution, common when systems are deployed in practice. We show that when such a covariate shift occurs, correctly modeling uncertainty can keep us from giving overconfident and potentially harmful recommendations. We demonstrate our methodology with a range of state-of-the-art models. Under both covariate shift and lack of overlap, our uncertainty-equipped methods can alert decisions makers when predictions are not to be trusted while outperforming their uncertainty-oblivious counterparts.
Formal verification of neural networks is essential for their deployment in safety-critical areas. Many available formal verification methods have been shown to be instances of a unified Branch and Bound (BaB) formulation. We propose a novel framework for designing an effective branching strategy for BaB. Specifically, we learn a graph neural network (GNN) to imitate the strong branching heuristic behaviour. Our framework differs from previous methods for learning to branch in two main aspects. Firstly, our framework directly treats the neural network we want to verify as a graph input for the GNN. Secondly, we develop an intuitive forward and backward embedding update schedule. Empirically, our framework achieves roughly $50%$ reduction in both the number of branches and the time required for verification on various convolutional networks when compared to the best available hand-designed branching strategy. In addition, we show that our GNN model enjoys both horizontal and vertical transferability. Horizontally, the model trained on easy properties performs well on properties of increased difficulty levels. Vertically, the model trained on small neural networks achieves similar performance on large neural networks.
Structural pruning of neural network parameters reduces computation, energy, and memory transfer costs during inference. We propose a novel method that estimates the contribution of a neuron (filter) to the final loss and iteratively removes those with smaller scores. We describe two variations of our method using the first and second-order Taylor expansions to approximate a filters contribution. Both methods scale consistently across any network layer without requiring per-layer sensitivity analysis and can be applied to any kind of layer, including skip connections. For modern networks trained on ImageNet, we measured experimentally a high (>93%) correlation between the contribution computed by our methods and a reliable estimate of the true importance. Pruning with the proposed methods leads to an improvement over state-of-the-art in terms of accuracy, FLOPs, and parameter reduction. On ResNet-101, we achieve a 40% FLOPS reduction by removing 30% of the parameters, with a loss of 0.02% in the top-1 accuracy on ImageNet. Code is available at https://github.com/NVlabs/Taylor_pruning.
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